Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#2Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing.
a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different.
b) elite overproduction is a "dangerous" topic when even treading on this ground invites charges of anti-intellectualism, but I cannot help looking at the 25+ crowd with fresh degrees, tons of debt and not-precisely-excellent earning opportunities and see that universities have a great racket out of this, while their graduates not so much. If you apply the old "Cui prodest?" question (Romans used to ask "Who profits?"), the answer would be that tertiary education complex is at least as influential as the military industrial complex, and most of the value captured does not even accrue to professors.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#3What is a “violent upheaval”?
Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#4Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…
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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#5it's an interesting idea, kind of foundation trilogy psychohistory like but it's also in some ways very obvious and hard to disprove at the same time. He gives two generations as the length for instability to dwell up, and if you move that like a sliding window over American history most of the time it'd probably be true depending on your definition of violent upheaval.
However if you expand it to other countries I think it quickly breaks down. In Latin America or the ME you have these cycles on a per year basis if they actually ever stop, in some regions you have way more piece and stability for hundreds of years.
The 'two generations' logic makes sense if you sneak into your assumption that you're in what I'd call moderately violent, fairly stable society like the US, but the reasoning is kind of circular.
Also assuming cliodynamics actually did have predictive power far beyond common sense then you have fully entire Foundation territory because then you're in some sort of strange loop where the acceptance of cliodynamics likely diretly impacts cliodynamics.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#6What is a “violent upheaval”? Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.
Something other than a natural phenomena or war with an outside entity that makes you declare martial law in a considerable part of the country.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#7As they say, history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#8Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…
The way I understood it, elite overproduction is about successful wealthy people, not enjoying the political influence that they believed they would enjoy after attaining their wealth.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#9Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…
Taking b) and running with it, education is, in my opinion, the silver bullet for a number of societies ills. It's very interesting to note how higher education in the US has such a high barrier to entry that it actively discourages outsiders.
It feels as if the Australian Government wants to move in the same direction, and / or have already been doing so for a few years.
Education has its own benefits to society as a whole, therefore we all suffer when a majority are locked out of pursuits that require and encourage depth of thought and logical thinking.
Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
#10Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…
Elite in pollitical sense does not equal "someone with college degree".