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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#91

Post by lumost »

caycep wrote: post #68
someperson wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

This. I think if China wanted to go all out, it could take Taiwan via massive force but it would be extremely costly for them and I don’t think the calculus of risk vs benefit adds up for them politically or practically. They certainly can maybe sink an American carrier, maybe, if their missiles are as good as they say, but that’s a big If.

In WW2 the attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise ending to the dominance of the battleship, marking the first time that a power attempted to attack Battleship's by air. While this had been theorized for a few decades, all of the great powers continued to invest in battleships.

No power has attempted to sink a carrier since 1945, there is ultimately limited data on how effective any anti-carrier weapon developed in the last 80 years would be in practice.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#92

Post by nabla9 »

baby wrote: post #76
nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

Taiwan has not formally declared independence.

Taiwan prefers to stay de facto independent for now, because declaring independence would mean war with China instantly.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#93

Post by doomleika »

alexanderdmitri wrote: post #88
doomleika wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's awesome because you are a westerner.

Interesting, can you elaborate on this?

Like most Southeast Asian country. Taiwan people put westerner on pedestal. It doesn't matter if you White, Black, if you came from the West, you automatically are one of the "good" person.

Simple test, if you go talk to anyone on the street, in English, they will try to answer in bad English(if they can). this is especially true for young/highly educated demography like me because we are educated in western value since very young.

If you came from southeastern, say, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. There's very good chance you see people look them in distain. Because those are usually imported labor for manual tasks.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#94

Post by lumost »

adventured wrote: post #86
beerandt wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'm scared of Chinese military strategy, especially social engineering and psyops, but I still see enough sloppy military execution that I remain confident in overall US superiority. Look at how much trouble they've had building and attempting to operate an aircraft carrier. I think they finally figured out how to manufacture bearings for ballpoint pens in the last couple years. For both of these things, it's b…

Aircraft carriers are very difficult to build, it makes sense they would have a hard time mastering it - only a few nations can even attempt to build them. They'll have four or five operational aircraft carriers this decade. They fully understand how to build them now. Their next step is catching up to the US aircraft carrier standard and being able to field a comprehensive blue-water navy (which is what they're reac…

A heavy piece of the rational for free trade is the notion that sovereignty does not matter, and the risk of a sudden trade restriction via nationalization, or interdiction is low.

If the US has "lost" Asia as a partner, can it maintain its supply chain dependence?

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#96

Post by coryrc »

Rapzid wrote: post #39

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise?

Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#97

Post by CogitoCogito »

baby wrote: post #76
nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

The current ROC (i.e. Taiwan) government's position is that they don't need to declare independence from the PRC given they've never been part of it (this is factually true by the way).

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#98

Post by mc32 »

nabla9 wrote: post #61
beerandt wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?

Nixon deserves the praise and blame for China relations. Starting the process was really hard part. It was culmination of long process started by Nixon in 1972. Shanghai Communique pledged to work toward the full diplomatic relations. Ford and Carter followed trough the process. Taiwan really didn't matter during the Cold War. Relations with China was strategic move to help create distance between Soviet Union and Ch…

They both share the blame. One enabled it and the other one did it.

It was probably Kissinger with rosy “divide and conquer” thinking given Moscow & Beijing had a fall out.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#99

Post by CogitoCogito »

United857 wrote: post #55

> The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act. How is this different than the status quo? AIT has always been the de-facto US representation in Taiwan up to now.

Seems like it just means that there aren't really restrictions on which government officials can go to Taiwan anymore. Of course they would still need at actively choose to do so. So if Biden just ignored this it would be mostly symbolic (which isn't nothing, but isn't necessarily a hell of a lot either). We'll just have to see what Biden does.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#100

Post by verroq »

baby wrote: post #76
nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

Taiwan (Republic of China) maintains a claim to territory currently occupied by the CCP (People’s republic of China). And vice versa for the CCP.
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