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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

state.gov

21–30 of 212 posts

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#21

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

I don't see why this would be related. What is the difference if this was enacted in a Trump presidency vs a Biden presidency?

The Trump presidency is much more comfortable with antagonizing China than the Biden presidency.

(To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#22
post #10

My concern is that Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic and could be a linchpin. In the past, extreme economic situations have been "improved" by wars. Is there another, better plan? Does anyone on the Biden team or on planet earth have a plan for resolving the severe cultural and political divide between the US and China? Or is the divide not as great as it seems? What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?

If China tries to take Taiwan by force, it would spark WW3. There are US military bases in Taiwan [0] which would automatically ensure that the US military is involved in any such attempt.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C...

US-China relations were OK under the Obama administration. Note that the Trade war and the cultural divide were initiated mostly by the current administration, and on balance, have done little to improve US standing or economy at the cost of straining Sino-US relations. They appear to have been mostly targeted at improving domestic standing by the administration. As such, it is reasonable to assume that a different administration can lead to better relations.

As to the bigger question of how the US can deal with another Superpower: that is a much harder question to answer. What's clear is that China will be a far more powerful rival than the Soviet Union, whose economy was mostly subpar and never really matched that of the US. It seems that Obama admin wanted to expand the US sphere of influence with the TPP; basically supercharge the economies in the immediate vicinity of the PRC with the help of the US to "contain" it. But the PRC has been a step ahead, and has cultivated allies using the same strategy that the US adopted: huge amounts of aid. Especially in Africa.

There are other factors that will make it even harder to predict the best approach in the future: Climate Catastrophe is already upon us, and its going to get a lot, lot worse in the future. Just look at how the PRC was able to handle the pandemic: if the US is unable (or unwilling) to take decisive actions to contain pandemics and natural disasters, it will cause permanent damage to America's economic capacity. This pandemic alone has cost the US over 370,000 lives, while the PRC (reportedly) has lost less than 5000. Despite this abject failure, the ruling party actually won more seats in the House (although they did lose the Presidency and the Senate, but only barely). This does not bode well at all for America's capacity to handle the severe challenges that it will face in the next few decades.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#23

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

My guess is that they were waiting until they were done negotiating trade + IP deals. Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.

It’s possible that the outgoing President had personal financial negotiations that this decision was enmeshed with. Retribution perhaps? The timing is odd. Time will tell.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#24

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP.

He's boxing in the next administration.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#25

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

The fallout with China is Biden’s problem. All gain, no pain.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#26

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kon…

Why is this downvoted. Is this site full of wumaos too? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#27

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration.

This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles.

It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power.

[1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#28
post #15

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.

Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#30

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kon…

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