Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the 3.5% number is not for low risk investing. Additionally, you would need to make something more like 5.5% to account for inflation. Still a fairly conservative number for investments in equities.
The oft-quoted 4% figure is accounting for inflation. The nominal average return of a balanced portfolio over time is more like 7-8%.
Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
121–130 of 150 posts
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#122If anyone knows about this type of company, please contact me at contact@creatorjobs.co.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#123My startup, Haekka ( https://haekka.com ) functions similarly. We don’t deal with office politics and bullshit. We only have two FTEs (founders) and 3 contractors. We’re 100% remote and have no plans on not being remote. My previous company that I sold was remote for 7 years. I don’t believe in building software in an office. We’re very transparent about our financial and business goals. My only scheduled meeting is…
I've just launched a site which has a goal to collect different companies that support Gumroad's model - https://creatorjobs.co/
I've listed your company there. Please let me know if you have any concerns about that - contact@creatorjobs.co.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#124I run my company in a similar way. It's myself, three employees and a bunch of contractors. ( https://asylumsquare.com/team ) We have an office, but everyone can work from where-ever he wants to (actually the freelancers are from all around the world). Since Covid hit we're operating 100% remote before most of the time we worked with 2 people in the office the rest of us remotely. Everyone works as much or less as he…
I've just launched a site which has a goal to collect different companies that support Gumroad's model - https://creatorjobs.co/
I've listed your company there. Please let me know if you have any concerns about that - contact@creatorjobs.co.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
you dont have to be in a $MEGACORP to have tons of useless meetings. You just have to move to a company where the people are proud to do SCRUM by the book, with reviews and retrospective (each one 4 hours long)
Hoping this is hyperbole, but if your reviews or retrospectives are actually four hours long, you should politely point out that these do not need to be more than an hour (and many mature scrum teams do both in an hour total)
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#126I read the post as a Transloadit.com founder and found it to 90% overlap. We do have a team meetup once a year and Friday remote gaming sessions, and one fulltimer tho (out of 18)
I've just launched a site which has a goal to collect different companies that support Gumroad's model - https://creatorjobs.co/
Is it possible that I list your company there? If yes, please contact me with additional information - contact@creatorjobs.co.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#127We do! (and are hiring; although we are tiny!) https://datascienceretreat.com/
I've just launched a site which has a goal to collect different companies that support Gumroad's model - https://creatorjobs.co/
Is it possible that I list your company there? If yes, please contact me with additional information - contact@creatorjobs.co.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
You assume that a million generates $40k to $60k, inflation-adjusted, for the next 40 years? I suppose that's one assumption to make. You know that the last time the US GDP grew more than 4% was back in 2000, right? And 2010 worldwide? Both with a continued downward trend since at least the 60's? (This obviously doesn't preclude >4% ROI, but that in turn means increasing income inequality, and at some point, there's…
It's not about GDP, it's about Equities - eg: SPX which averages like 10% growth over last 30 years or something. Getting 4% off $1M isn't that hard at all. And with $1M you may be able to get some portion to work higher yields.
It has been outpacing GDP because increasingly, production is being concentrated in fewer, larger companies. So right now, they are growing. There are limits to that growth if GDP isn't growing as well - there are only so many smaller companies you can put out of business.
This - investing into SPX, or VFIAX, or any other market aggregate - is a viable strategy in the face of unlimited growth. It's a reasonable mid-term strategy. It's entirely unclear that there will be unchecked economic growth for 40 years. In fact, there's very good reason to assume there won't.
As for "get some portion to work higher yields" - those yields carry risk. They're not just making you more money, you stand a better chance to lose money, too. Which in turn means much less return, even if you manage to maintain 4%.
And to make matters worse, you're timing dependent - if you'd invested $1M in 1999, you would've been back to $1M in 2012. Except, if you'd lived off it for those 13 years, you'd be down to half your initial investment, ~$480K.
FIRE is a high-risk strategy. I'm not saying it can't work out, but over 40 years, there are a lot of things that can happen, and most FIRE proponents have very small safety margins. The crux is that that doesn't seem particularly problematic in your 20s and 30s - worst case, you start again, right? Except "start again" in your 50s, 60s, 70s is a really sucky proposition.
Ultimately, everybody takes their own risks, but let's not underplay those risks.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not about GDP, it's about Equities - eg: SPX which averages like 10% growth over last 30 years or something. Getting 4% off $1M isn't that hard at all. And with $1M you may be able to get some portion to work higher yields.
Equities don't keep growing indefinitely without underlying economic growth, and GDP represents that economic growth. There is no immutable law that SPX needs to keep growing 10%. It has been outpacing GDP because increasingly, production is being concentrated in fewer, larger companies. So right now, they are growing. There are limits to that growth if GDP isn't growing as well - there are only so many smaller compa…
And there are a dozen TSLA on the horizon.
And the market keeps making new ones.
Re: Ask HN: Which companies work like Gumroad?
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
The zoom calls are the symptom. Meetings are a way of "doing something" without actually doing something. Most megacorps waste millions spinning their wheels on nonsense, but they're established and make money so it doesn't matter. A strong small team working on a specialized product will always win - that's why they get gobbled up eventually by the megacorps - there's no way they can compete with that internally.
Meetings are a result of having a large team (or many teams) which require work/information to be synced periodically. I have not seen a software product that can tackle this problem: I only want to see progress on team Y for delivery 1 that my team needs for delivery Gamma. Also, strong, small teams usually don't scale well - which is why they sell themselves to megacorps who can (e.g. megacorps are much better when…
There's too much bureaucracy to innovate. A potentially great idea could be snuffed out because it threatens the internal ambition of a middle manager, or the silos required to overcome results in burnout and good devs leaving. Even if a good idea is approved, you need 20 different teams, requiring 20 different meetings, and overall meetings, and then you need status meetings to watch the budget, etc etc.
> Also, strong, small teams usually don't scale well - which is why they sell themselves to megacorps who can
They sell to megacorps to make money, not to scale their product.