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Tether price manipulation

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Re: Tether price manipulation

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The killer app for Bitcoin is escaping government fiat money that is backed by literally nothing at all and is being printed at increasingly alarming rates. 40% of all USD ever created were “made” in 2020. That will have repercussions for decades and isn’t a currency I want to stay in. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 Ironically (or not) Bitcoin was created in 2009 right when that graph gets really crazy.

> backed by literally nothing It is the only thing the government accepts for tax payments. Given that you can be arrested for not paying your taxes it is "backed" by the barrel of a gun, a threat to your very being. In one sense this is the only real thing there is.

Gold and silver became money for similar reasons (probably). Kings and Emperors found that supplying their armies was much easier (especially in peace time) if they used the method of taxing the population in gold and/or silver and then using that to pay their soldiers who would supply themselves on the open market. That way you did not have the standard problems of a planned economy. The peasants have now need for gold, so they would not need/want to trade stuff for it unless they were forced to have some to give to the tax man. It's much more complicated than that, of course, but like fiat money, gold and silver do not have much intrinsic value besides using it to show off your wealth.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#242

The problem is that in the early days of @Bitfinex'ed this was all a bit of a sideshow because there was genuinely large interest from retail and the outcome of crypto was far less certain. However three years on, crypto still does not have a "killer app" and is 99.99% used for speculation. Bitcoin's narrative has had to morph from "digital currency" to "digital gold". But in the depths of the March panic, Tether jum…

>Bitcoin's narrative has had to morph from "digital currency" to "digital gold" The narrative around bitcoin has always been "It is digital currency. It works like gold". Hence the notion of "mining" . EDIT: downvote me if you want but you are flat wrong Section 6 in the bitcoin whitepaper explicitly likens bitcoin to gold [0] > The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expe…

I think people are using "gold" in 2 different ways.

In the olden days, gold was actually a currency. The supply of coins you could produce was limited by the precious metals you had. The amount of paper money you could issue was limited by the amount of gold bars you had. In this system, gold is still acting like a currency; but a currency with very real limitations on the ability of any institution to manage it. [0]. This was the original meaning of digital gold.

In contrast, modern gold is not used as a currency. It is used as a commodity and store of value; and a hedge against inflation.

[0] Unlike gold though; bitcoin actually has a predictable issuance schedule. There is no sudden spike in Bitcoin supplies because prospective suddenly discovered a rich vein.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#243
post #238
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's good for 97% of the time, but not for the 3% where prices either crashes or goes way-up (volatility blackswan). These stressful situations tests the 1:1 peg. (which is why I mentioned the $4000 price crash). They probably have 1. good reserves ratios and 2. very liquid assets as reserve.

The difference between having 1:1 backing and “pretty good” reserves is that if they claim (as they do) to be 1:1 backed and it were to come out that they were not, it could spark a “run on the bank” type scenario for everyone to get their money out while they can.

It's not like it didn't happen before (it happened twice), and their rate diverged from the 1:1. Actually, their rate wasn't that super stable until very recently. The reason why I think they are fully backed is that the crypto-market yield for USD in the last few years have been crazy. So unless you are planning an exit scam, you can't go broke. Even if they are losing money to move the money, or they screw up here or there (get accounts blocked), they can still come on top.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#244
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tether's reserves only matter when people try to redeem Tethers. This is currently not possible. This is why being liquid and freely trade-able matters. Tether is fully redeemable if you can trade it against other crypto/stable coins. Want to redeem USDT? exchange it to USDC and then withdraw to your bank account.

No, trading is not redeeming. The fact that you will buy it from me or swap me USDC does not prove that they have any reserves. So again I ask - how do we have any proof that Tether has the reserves they claim they do?

Somebody will need to take the counter-trade (the arbitrage dude) and unless he can redeem to close the circle, he is going to stop.

USDT are redeemable to your bank account if you have a good sizable balance (talking 7-8 figures). You'll get it deposited from some of their offshore shell companies. But you didn't hear it from me :)

Re: Tether price manipulation

#245
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can buy BTC with the newly minted coins.

This makes zero sense. Why not just use USD? The entire point of Tether seems to be that it is always valued to be exactly 1:1 with USD. And that seems to somehow convince people that entities who cannot obtain a loan of USD can obtain a loan of Tether?

Some exchanges have no traditional banking ties at all, so you have to send them some for of crypto in order to use them. It's also easier and quicker to move tether from one exchange to another than it is to receive a USD transfer and resend it to another, and that's ignoring regulatory issues.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#246
post #81

Let's say you believe that Tether is a complete fraud and will crash the market at some point. How do you take advantage of this? I'm not myself trading, but I would be interested to know how that kind of short works in practice. From what I understand, that's what bitcoin futures can be used for?

kraken supports shorting tether against USD

Re: Tether price manipulation

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> backed by literally nothing It is the only thing the government accepts for tax payments. Given that you can be arrested for not paying your taxes it is "backed" by the barrel of a gun, a threat to your very being. In one sense this is the only real thing there is.

This argument doesn't really refute the argument for bitcoin as digital gold. It's not as though you can't exchange bitcoin to pay your taxes.

Gold has an intrinsic use value. Maybe not as high as its current monetary value, but it isn’t zero.

Bitcoin has no floor. You can only exchange bitcoin for taxes if someone wants the bitcoin.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#248

The problem is that in the early days of @Bitfinex'ed this was all a bit of a sideshow because there was genuinely large interest from retail and the outcome of crypto was far less certain. However three years on, crypto still does not have a "killer app" and is 99.99% used for speculation. Bitcoin's narrative has had to morph from "digital currency" to "digital gold". But in the depths of the March panic, Tether jum…

That's gonna be the killer app, low-cost global payments, finally we can accept international payments from non-crypto customers without ridiculous SWIFT or PayPal fees... https://jimmymow.medium.com/announcing-strike-global-2392b90...

Re: Tether price manipulation

#249
post #207
post #201

OP gives no proof that Tether is not holding 1:1 reserves. There is, however, a good proof that they do: Tether has held the 1:1 beg pretty well recently. Bitcoin price dropped to $4.000 last year and Tether exchange rate has held pretty well. It is important to mention that USDT is still liquid despite the lack of USD on/off-ramps. People regularly sell USDT on the offline market, and can exchange to USDC on many ex…

I mostly agree with your skepticism on USDT driving BTC price, but I disagree with this: > There is, however, a good proof that they do: Tether has held the 1:1 beg pretty well recently. All this proves is that they have something in reserve, not that it is 1:1 backed. Most modern banking operates on a fractional reserve system, but when I take cash out of my bank account I get a cash dollar 1:1 with what they debit…

> but when I take cash out of my bank account I get a cash dollar 1:1 with what they debit my account; they don’t prorate it for the amount of reserve they have.

Now try taking out 50 million or more, you'll face same difficulties.

This tether nonsense comes up every few months, still adamantly holding the 1:1.

Not mentioning that it's not the single dollar peg option in crypto space anymore, plenty of other options USDC, Dai.

Re: Tether price manipulation

#250

The problem is that in the early days of @Bitfinex'ed this was all a bit of a sideshow because there was genuinely large interest from retail and the outcome of crypto was far less certain. However three years on, crypto still does not have a "killer app" and is 99.99% used for speculation. Bitcoin's narrative has had to morph from "digital currency" to "digital gold". But in the depths of the March panic, Tether jum…

Too late to edit my original comment but a lot of people pointing to the "peg" as proof that Tether is legitimate. The only peg that exists is the one whereby you should be able to go to Tether Inc and redeem USDT for USD 1:1. That peg has never ever been demonstrated (publicly). All the other "pegs" are just cash trading. If I trade USDT/USD on Binance...I don't actually have USD. Even on that pair, my USD profit/lo…

> For anyone who disagrees with the above - please show me market where I can go sell my USDT directly for USD.

Kraken, Bitstamp, did so for 3 years+

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