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Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

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Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#51
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right about the house prices in Germany, but your statement about ECB is not entirely correct. ECB does not "insist there is no inflation" in Germany or in Europe: in both cases it has been around 2 % for the last 20 years: https://portal.dataviz.ecb.europa.eu/views/HICP_dashboard_ET... There is a reason why the ECB estimation of inflation (HICP) seems lower than expected in your experience: it does not take…

> it does not take into account owner-occupied housing (OOH) prices It does however take into account rental prices, which exceed owner-occupied housing costs. So the idea that housing cost inflation is fully absent from EU inflation numbers (not you that's saying it, but sometimes implied in various discussions) isn't quite true, either. Housing costs as a percentage of income for owner-occupiers hasn't risen all th…

You are right, thanks for specifying it.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#52
post #2

House prices are driven upwards due to low interest rates, so this move will most likely only exacerbate the already high house prices. I'm not sure about Denmark, but in Germany house prices have about doubled in the last 10 years, (with the ECB insisting there's no inflation). Given the choice between high interest rates and cheaper house prices, versus low interest rates and expensive houses, I'd rather take the f…

Same thing in the Netherlands. Prices doubling. The monthly costs are similar to years ago, but the high barrier to entry makes it impossible for young people to get anything similar to previous generations for the same money. As a result, rent goes up and young people now pay much more rent than before, semi-forced. Low rates do not help when the market is this overheated. Worse, disincentivising people from prematu…

I think there might be two things going on here: one is a rise in various forms of social inequality, between generations, between people living in tier one cities and smaller cities or towns, between workers in certain industries and the rest. I tend to think this is bad, but I don't think it's related to interest rates.

The other is the culmination of a fifty-year process set in motion when Western economies went from gold-backed currency to fiat currency, and then from political control of currency to independent Central Banks. During this period both inflation and interest rate have moved monotonically downwards, essentially both to zero.

What if you assume that this state of affairs is strange because new, but perfectly benign, and will last indefinitely? It's absolutely true that those people who bought housing and other assets when rates were 10% have profited from a huge windfall. However, it's a one-off windfall. They simply got a discount, because 20/30/40 years ago, borrowing long term to pay cash was hugely burdensome. Today's homebuyers will buy assets at prices which reflect low interest rates, and they will pay low interest rates on their loans. As young workers, they might actually be better off in the long run. In a long term regime of zero rates, more of society's wealth is going to producers (and risk-takers), less is going to people who just hoard cash.

You might think it's nice for society to do something to correct this one-off inequality. Maybe so, but it's not fundamentally different to the other inequalities which exist. In particular, it's unclear why either artificially raising rates or artificially raising inflation are the solution. Neither of these are particularly effective in helping people who have got the short end of the stick. Both benefit some groups of rich people and some groups of poor people, and harm some other groups. There are much better solutions which can be pursued by governments directly without political interference in currencies.

Of course the type of person (job, family status, education level) who could buy a house in Berlin or London in the 1990's could not buy that same house today. You can either say 'too bad, you were out competed', or you can try to do something about it: pay teachers and social workers more, build more houses, make smaller cities more desirable to live in, provide better training and career opportunities etc. Blaming this on the dubious idea that cash in the bank should accrue 8% interest per year lets governments off the hook for actually solving the problems, and just advocates a different set of inequalities and broken incentives.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing in the Netherlands. Prices doubling. The monthly costs are similar to years ago, but the high barrier to entry makes it impossible for young people to get anything similar to previous generations for the same money. As a result, rent goes up and young people now pay much more rent than before, semi-forced. Low rates do not help when the market is this overheated. Worse, disincentivising people from prematu…

The average price of existing houses in the Netherlands increased by 55% since 2013. Source: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2020/52/house-prices-almost-9-...

I wouldn't call 55% in 7 years "only". Especially given this statistic doesn't highlight type of housing and price groups (read: housing in the far outskirts pulling averages down, though COVID is changing this dynamic). Starter wages have barely risen since then, let alone kept up. And along with the crisis, one now gets far less mortgage for the same inflation-adjusted salary than in 2013, despite the lower rates.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#54
post #27
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right about the house prices in Germany, but your statement about ECB is not entirely correct. ECB does not "insist there is no inflation" in Germany or in Europe: in both cases it has been around 2 % for the last 20 years: https://portal.dataviz.ecb.europa.eu/views/HICP_dashboard_ET... There is a reason why the ECB estimation of inflation (HICP) seems lower than expected in your experience: it does not take…

Well if house prices have indeed doubled in 10 years then that means inflation during that period was about 7.2%, not 2% as they claim. Saying inflation is 2% instead of 7% can be seen as "insisting there's no inflation". I.e. the statement was a bit of hyperbole to indicate that the ECB is hiding or misrepresenting the real rate of inflation. And without more detailed info, hiding/excluding inflation increases in on…

"ECB is hiding or misrepresenting the real rate of inflation." ECB has no role on that, which as I said was in favour of including house prices in the HICP. It is the European Commission deciding on that: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/hicp/faq

Please note that "H" stands for "harmonized", and that is one of the issues. If you change how the HICP is defined, then all the countries should produce the new indexes that should be included, with the same methodology. That is a challenge and a national political issue too in some cases.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#55

I'm very far from an economist. But in school I learned banks loan out "your money" to companies, for which they receive interest, which they also use to pay you interest. So when loaning money requires 0% of interest payments, and saving money pays out 0% of interest...that seems wrong?

Any amount of belief I had that I understand any of this has evaporated when I learned that negative interest rates are not only a thing, but also a thing we may all enjoy soon enough, and that they're apparently a good thing .

> Any amount of belief I had that I understand any of this has evaporated when I learned that negative interest rates are not only a thing, but also a thing we may all enjoy soon enough, and that they're apparently a good thing.

As someone mentioned before, their is far more to be discussed on the matter, but be under no illusion: 0 to negative % interest rates are a disaster waiting to happen.

When savers are punished for their otherwise prudent behaviour for a rainy day, mainly because central banks are increasing the monetary supply to offset the lack of activity in M1 and M2 figures that are supposed to denote a healthy economy but do so in headlong manner, they are forcing people to spend money they don't have which in turn increases consumption rates (yet another critical metric in their calculus) and will create the all too common situation in which they cannot afford to not to spend it as it loses value (purchasing power) the longer you hold it in fiat: for context this is also why most cannot afford to have one unexpected expense and it ruins them financially as people as well as companies are looking for more riskier ways to hedger the depreciation to offset the lack of interest rates.

And this applies to business and banks, as well as the citizenry.

All of the EU technocrats are just doing the same thing the US Fedesral reserve has has been doing but from a less vantaged position since they do not have World reserve currency status, and despite their large geographical (in and outside of the Schengen Zone) EU pact footprint are still very reliant on Chinese imports and requires them to play the 'depreciate your currency' game of Russian Roulette to remain competitive in the export market and keep up with the machinations with the Yuan, USD, Yen, and now even the CHF!

So to suffice it to say, no your feeling of bewilderment is not wrong, but your faith in these technocrat's fiscal policy requires far more scrutiny than you've given it because actually this is a disaster waiting to happen--they've already inflated the housing Market in N. America in some place to levels above where they were in 2007 before the crisis as a result of cheap money and lower interest rates. I think most people understand this in a latent manner but cannot understand why it is as the lack the understanding much less the time and resolve to look into it.

The US stock market is at all time highs in the middle of a Global pandemic, recession and more and more people are out of work. None of this makes any sense, and Corporations get more bail out money especially in relation to the citizenry so its very perplexing, but it has to be said that Central banks can only do this because so much of the World is entirely ignorant on financial and fiscal matters, and in my opinion is purposely done and neglected in most formal education (and I include University as I've sat in lower division econ classes and had to walk out due to the absurdity) unless you're a masochist that is willing to put yourself through the immense pain of trying to understand it.

But once you get to the Naked short selling, Re-hypothecation part and then compare it how much unfunded liabilities exists much of it as debt on blance sheets in the derivatives markets (yet another bizarro World situation) all over the World you start to realize that its the most evil, disastrous casino level ponzi scheme imaginable that has so many dire consequences for everyone except those created it as they ALWAYS come out on top in the end.

In short: the fiat monetary system has been in a zombie state for over 100 years now and requires constant machinations (negative % rates are just one) to keep it propped to give it the illusion it 'works' which opens the door for banksters and other unscrupulous actors to game the system in their favour for immense short term gain to the detriment of the rest of us in these ever more severe boom and bust cycles.

We should at least have the option to opt-out. I'm so much less worried about the future because of Bitcoin than I was even in 2007 as we were starting to head into the 2008 crisis where my anxiety levels were through the roof for years and which messed up my emotional, mental and physical health pretty badly to be honest.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#56

I'm very far from an economist. But in school I learned banks loan out "your money" to companies, for which they receive interest, which they also use to pay you interest. So when loaning money requires 0% of interest payments, and saving money pays out 0% of interest...that seems wrong?

> banks loan out "your money" to companies

When the bank lends you money, it usually doesn't go from its deposits. Usually, there's an offsetting loan the bank takes from other banks, at the inter-bank lending rate (e.g. Euribor). Then the bank lends you the money at, say Euribor + 1%, pocketing the difference. The funds for inter-bank lending come either by offsetting loans from the central bank, or from consumer deposits, both of which can be re-lended many times due to fractional reserve banking.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jesus, can yong folk afford to buy anything at this point?

I don't want to be the spoilsport, but yes, they very much can and it's not even that difficult. Case in point: I moved to Finland as an immigrant 9 years ago, with nothing but a backpack, girlfriend and $12k in my bank account. Within 7 years, we paid down the mortgage for 100 m2 house in the capital area, while raising two children, with one above average and one below average income. And I don't feel like we were…

Yeah, but your example was valid 9 years ago and the market has changed since then.

I was asking about doing the same thing in the real estate market of today, not the one from 9 years ago.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing in the Netherlands. Prices doubling. The monthly costs are similar to years ago, but the high barrier to entry makes it impossible for young people to get anything similar to previous generations for the same money. As a result, rent goes up and young people now pay much more rent than before, semi-forced. Low rates do not help when the market is this overheated. Worse, disincentivising people from prematu…

I think there might be two things going on here: one is a rise in various forms of social inequality, between generations, between people living in tier one cities and smaller cities or towns, between workers in certain industries and the rest. I tend to think this is bad, but I don't think it's related to interest rates. The other is the culmination of a fifty-year process set in motion when Western economies went f…

but I don't think it's related to interest rates.

It absolutely does have to do with interest rates. Rates are kept artificially low by central banks due to all the debt that has been accumulated the last decades. We're at the end of a long-term debt cycle.

It's quite easy to see how artificially low interest rates are increasing social inequality.

Just look at house prices, the older generation who predominantly own houses have had their wealth inflated by increasing house prices and that has happened due to low rates.

Younger generations are often priced out of buying homes.

What if you assume that this state of affairs is strange because new, but perfectly benign, and will last indefinitely?

You mean this time it's different?

The current setup is not sustainable. Debt is growing faster than income/GDP all over the world (since before Covid).

In a long term regime of zero rates, more of society's wealth is going to producers (and risk-takers), less is going to people who just hoard cash.

Savings is not "hoarded cash". Saved money is usually put to productive use by banks loaning it out again to other people.

Money spent on real-estate on the other hand, is not put to productive use and does not meaningfully grow the economy.

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#59
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there might be two things going on here: one is a rise in various forms of social inequality, between generations, between people living in tier one cities and smaller cities or towns, between workers in certain industries and the rest. I tend to think this is bad, but I don't think it's related to interest rates. The other is the culmination of a fifty-year process set in motion when Western economies went f…

but I don't think it's related to interest rates. It absolutely does have to do with interest rates. Rates are kept artificially low by central banks due to all the debt that has been accumulated the last decades. We're at the end of a long-term debt cycle. It's quite easy to see how artificially low interest rates are increasing social inequality. Just look at house prices, the older generation who predominantly own…

'artificially low'

What do you think the natural rate of interest should be? Why?

Re: Denmark offers homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jesus, can yong folk afford to buy anything at this point?

I don't want to be the spoilsport, but yes, they very much can and it's not even that difficult. Case in point: I moved to Finland as an immigrant 9 years ago, with nothing but a backpack, girlfriend and $12k in my bank account. Within 7 years, we paid down the mortgage for 100 m2 house in the capital area, while raising two children, with one above average and one below average income. And I don't feel like we were…

Instead of settling down at the age of ~25 and combining two incomes to pay off the mortgage

The problem for young people wanting to but a house, at least in Sweden, isn't so much the monthly costs of paying the mortgage (which is often less than rent), but being able to put up the 15-20% 'cash' that the bank wants to see to even give you that mortgage.

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