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Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

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Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#62
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tax deduction on mortgage interest is one of the most regressive pieces of tax policy. Those with more expensive housing benefit more from the credit. Non-homeowners do not benefit at all, and renters tend to be poorer than homeowners.

Renters are living in housing which is itself eligible for business loan deductions. If you believe that landlords use the cost of holding real estate as an input that shapes the supply side of the supply-demand balance in the broad rental market (as I do), then it seems that renters do indirectly benefit from the deductibility of the loans on the buildings in which they live. The mortgage interest deduction serves t…

But it keeps renters renters. I'd rather forego my tax deduction for owning my apartment and bake it into the normal tax. I feel it's unfair a friend can pay the same amount as me each month, but instead of paying down a loan he loses everything to a landlord. And in addition I also get to deduct the ~rents~ interest.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#63
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opportunity cost of the higher monthly payment surely factors in?

Isn't that another advantage of 30 year?

Yes, especially if you have an alternative place to park the money that earns N+1, where N is your interest. Anything above that is marginal gravy.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#64
The actual interest rate is -0.75%. If they are offering 0% mortgages, the bank is taking 0.75%.

From your point of view as the buyer. You basically are being given an amount of free money to on the books take an amount of debt.

The thing about negative rates, it's effectively society is saying 'do anything so long as it's not risky.' even if it doesnt make sense.

It makes sense, tons of money is moving more conservative. Boomers are headed into retirement and need to move their money to safety. Except where are they investing it safely? In those bonds that are negative. They are losing money in their investment.

There's also the reality that the boomers have not saved enough in their generation. Many of them are expecting underfunded social programs are going to keep them afloat. That's not going to happen. In many places those retired cant make ends meet and therefore you get silver crime. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/20/poverty-ageing-j...

So the boomers will raise the money to retire by inflating housing values and the younger generations buy this debt theoretically when they move into those bigger homes. That's not how it will work. It will inevitable result in exactly the same interest rates and inflation like the 70s and 80s during the WW1 boomers.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#66
There is a more basic economic question that I am curious about.

I don't know how / can't believe how in the 1980s we had the era of 15% interest rates, etc (ok, I have some idea, central bank policies, inflation, etc) -- but it seems now we're in a "forever-0%-interest" situation.

The reason I think is that interest/mortgage/etc rates just reflect how much people/banks/etc are willing to receive in profit for parking or lending their money somewhere. This has gone to 0% (almost no profit) because no one can offer good returns on the money. Or the people receiving the money have so many choices that the lenders are forced to compete to 0%. All the VC money sloshing around for free is because there is no more favorable place for that money to find profit and the 1-in-10 (?) shot that startups have is still better odds than average other opportunities.

Right now it seems there is too much money searching for returns. And that money is not somehow just going to disappear over time.

To take the opposite hypothetical, if you consider the accumulated wealth of all countries now, and the relatively low growth of most of them, how could it be possible that all that money could find good investment return rates? Except for isolated pockets of growth, need for investment, where will we find broad returns anything greater than a few %?

So, until something fundamental about the money supply changes, are we in for a long period of pretty much 0% returns?

I would love to know some more sophisticated ways to understand the situation.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the argument for negative interest rates having any impact on house prices? I would think it would be mostly linear compared to 2%, 1%, 0%, -1%, etc... For example - if I have a 20 year mortgage on a $240,000 house @ 0%, I have to pay $1,000/month. If the interest rate is -1% then I have to pay ~$900/month. I don't know if that extra $100/month really moves the market on home prices that much.

People would be incentivized to buy the absolute most expensive home they qualify for, which isn’t always a good thing. Dove sorry is the key to investments.

> Dove sorry is the key to investments.

What does this mean? I am at a loss.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#69
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. Since house prices are now super high, only people who have saved up a big down payment can actually buy a house. Isn't this what is happening right now in the US, that the down-payment is one of the barriers, since less than 10% (forget 20%) down has huge penalties long-term?

No, not really. People are still readily getting loans with far less than 10%.

In competitive markets, the issue isn't getting the loan - it's getting an offer accepted.

Sellers will heavily favor a cash offer, as it's faster and far more assured of going through. One strategy I've heard about people doing is to take a pile of cash, acquire the property, and then refinance it pulling out 80% of what they put in so that they can both have a mortgage and have a stronger buying position. Add in things like dropping inspection, no contingencies, etc... and it gets really hard for many first time home buyers to compete.

Additionally, coming in with an FHA 3.5% down, vs someone with a traditional 20% down - the sellers will favor the 20% as again it's less paperwork, easier, faster, and more certain to go through if the assessment is off by a few %.

I had no idea about this before trying to buy a property in New England. So much of traditional advice doesn't include these details.

What's weird about it to me is that this is one of the few places in US consumer markets where the seller cares deeply about your method of purchase and where the money came from. Buying a used car? They don't care if it's cash, credit, loan, etc generally. Hell, most car dealers want you to use a loan from them and would prefer that over cash in many ways. When you go to WalMart, they don't deny you buying something for using a credit card vs cash.

Re: Danes Get 20-Year 0% Mortgages

#70

There is a more basic economic question that I am curious about. I don't know how / can't believe how in the 1980s we had the era of 15% interest rates, etc (ok, I have some idea, central bank policies, inflation, etc) -- but it seems now we're in a "forever-0%-interest" situation. The reason I think is that interest/mortgage/etc rates just reflect how much people/banks/etc are willing to receive in profit for parkin…

Growth correlates best with productivity and productivity is a factor of capital effiency and manpower, and manpower increases with population.
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