Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Lab Leak Hypothesis

nymag.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 244 posts

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#111

Post by roenxi »

emmelaich wrote: post #88
incrudible wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So why would Covid-19 even need to come from a lab? We (humans) had wet markets filled with animals, including the very bats that carry the base virus. It's the perfect breeding ground to create a pandemic-level virus and probably a few thousand more viruses of lesser impact. The question of how it got to Wuhan all the way from Southern China remains unanswered. There weren't any bats sold on the wet markets, nor h…

Good points, and I tend to think the 'escaped from a lab' case is at least as strong as the zoonotic one. A small counterpoint though -- the market is the Huanan market, i.e. specialising in south china sourced or styled food. I would not be surprised if some exotic animals were there but never admitted to.

Although reasonable, one theory ("the bat coronavirus was transported by scientists to the lab that studies bat coronaviruses") involves no illigal activity. On the other hand the counter-theory ("there was illegal bat trafficking from a small mine in Yunnan") involves speculation that something happened that we don't know about. Strictly speaking, the lab leak theory has more observed evidence. Presumably the Chinese government would have identified and explained if they found bat traffickers.

We know the lab was aware of RaTG13 - they produced a sequence quickly that no-one else had seen. I know nothing about the situation but it would be interesting to know where exactly the sample was being sequenced. I doubt they did it in the mine, samples must have been transported to some lab.

I used to think 99% chance zoonotic, but the fact the similar virus was known to the lab was enough to drag me to thinking it is probably a toss up. Lab leaks do happen, this lab was studying bat coronaviruses. It is possible.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#112

Post by XorNot »

mmcgaha wrote: post #62
peteradio wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not disagreeing with your Likelihoods but I'm not sure your evidence really makes sense. It does not really follow that a self-harm would always be avoided, the game of chess is all about sacrifice. Perhaps China thinks the West is short-sighted and would be politically bound to act against its long term interest, so why not? Maybe there are other reasons why you think the "CCP Virus" hypothesis is 360 stupid besides…

This is not my literal belief; it is only a logical extension of the discussion so . . . If covid mostly kills old or otherwise compromised individuals then a socialist country could see it in their interest to release a virus that eliminates the least productive part of the population. It would not be as much self harm as an exercise to increase the strength of the whole.

Where the hell was the research on who it mostly kills conducted? You don't look at the DNA sequence and go "ah yes, this will get everyone over 65..."

Was there any evidence of say, the interment camps operating as biosecure facilities while they experimented on finding out mortalities?

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#113

Post by MilnerRoute »

ALittleLight wrote: post #95
et2o wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it’s an extremely long article and it’s a lot of work for me to do for no reward.

Just giving an empty comment serves no purpose. If it's too hard or time consuming to debunk the whole article, then pick the most consequential point or the point that's the easiest to disprove. "This article is disinformation. For example they claim X when in reality !X as you can see here." Is a way more persuasive and valuable comment.

The author actually says that there is no direct evidence for this.

That's why he even included the word "hypothesis" in the title.

He's not even trying to provide evidence.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#114

Post by XorNot »

anon9001 wrote: post #35
coolspot wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, the state-sponsored gain-of-function research towards particular properties is not an accident. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has published papers on how they were able to modify a bat virus to achieve more dangerous properties [77][88]. [77] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/ [88] - https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debat...

How close are we to DIY viruses? If I was a teenager interested in biology, and I wanted to maybe build a "harmless" virus just to see if I could do it, how achievable might that be? I watched computer viruses go from: researchers -> tinkerers -> vandals -> criminals -> governments At this point we just assume every computer is compromised, and we carve out enclaves of varying security for whatever risk level we're w…

You can make a superflu with a ready supply of ferrets and warehouse.

It does not take genetic engineering to do.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#115

Post by XorNot »

anonymousiam wrote: post #17
api wrote: post #2

I'm not convinced either way, but posting because this is an articulate well written non-sensational discussion of the idea. If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare…

The interesting thing for me is the contrast in the behavior of the Chinese government between the previous viral leaks from China. I'm citing a few references from before 2020: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-bei... https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/20/18260669/deadly... The previous behavior was to acknowledge the leaks and try to contain them. The current behavior is to arrest peop…

China is now an authoritarian strongman dictatorship since 2004.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#116

Post by MilnerRoute »

neonate wrote: post #84
MilnerRoute wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's a fiction writer. I think that's relevant.

Many writers have done both journalism and fiction. There's a long tradition of it.

True. But not the author of this article.

So by your logic, it seems like if you value journalism experience...then you should value this article less.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#117

Post by saberdancer »

peteradio wrote: post #68
ivanhoe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be way easier and more logical to start the infection on a foreign soil? All the previous similar epidemics were successfully contained before reaching Europe, and if there was not for quite serious fuck ups in the beginning (Italian dude not even showing up on the meetings, etc.) perhaps even this one could have been stopped early on. So if it was China wanting to hurt US, then they'd have to be seriousl…

Not really wanting to play devil's advocate too much longer ... but if this virus popped up in let's say Spain rather than China wouldn't we wonder how the fuck it got there, what's the vector? I'm not sure if these things can be fingerprinted, would intelligence anyway trace it to China? Perhaps (to China) a clear oops backstory is more preferable to a murky "this thing definitely came from China but how?" backstory…

So the solution to that is to make it extremely suspicious by releasing the virus in Wuhan, city far away from the bat caves where they have a virus lab and which isn't really well known for outside travel?

Wouldn't it be much more logical to release it in one of the southern cities, Hong Kong or Macau. Hong Kong would be a perfect candidate as it would allow China to institute strict lockdown in the city which had decent amount of protests in the past years.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#118

Post by andromeduck »

coolgod wrote: post #105
andromeduck wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think Trump supporters are bad you should take a look at some of the CCTV archives. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/06/world/asia/china-covid-or...

Wow! Another propaganda piece which repeat same falsehoods about COVID origins from China without providing meaningful substance. It's from the NYTimes too, a reputable fake news source which also slanders Trump. Could it be they are also in on the conspiracy to engineer this global reset by stealing the election from Trump using a lab engineered virus?

What on earth was that?!

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#119

Post by wesleywt »

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #13

This is a good, balanced article. I've been of a similar mind for over a year now. The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But an accident involving a well-intentioned gain-of-function experiment seems quite possible and was something that the US was concerned about with its own gain-of-function research. In any case, this, like so much of this other nonsense aro…

Many people over estimate our capabilities regarding manipulation of biological systems. A gain function is extremely difficult to get right. It is more likely that zoonotic transfer occurred. Either within a wet market or people operating in that industry or a lab worker accidentally exposing him/herself.

Sequence analysis show a unique mutation that increased receptor binding affinity that was not predicted by previous models. It just shows, nature knows best.

I find this debate extremely stupid. We always known that as natural habitats are being encroached upon, the more likely diseases like this will emerge. By focusing on our human conspiracies, I am afraid we will ignore Nature's conspiracy to get us.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#120

Post by noctua »

InTheArena wrote: post #41
InTheArena wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this is not just a USA story. The reality is that China is shutting down any research into the origins of the virus - at least by doctors not loyal to the government. They are arresting journalists who don’t tell the story they want to tell. In the vacuum of information, it’s fair to point out that the market not being the source means something else was - and - there was a lab that had the closest variant to…

Never mind that the author is dealing with a country that is committing genocide right now simply because some Muslims believe in Allah and not the state.

If I've understood it correctly, China isn't persecuting Muslims, but Uyghurs, and their main justification for it is the East Turkestan independence movement. There are plenty of Muslims in other parts of China living normal lives.
Post reply on HN