Live data from Hacker News

The Lab Leak Hypothesis

nymag.com

31–40 of 244 posts

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#31

This is a good, balanced article. I've been of a similar mind for over a year now. The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But an accident involving a well-intentioned gain-of-function experiment seems quite possible and was something that the US was concerned about with its own gain-of-function research. In any case, this, like so much of this other nonsense aro…

Not disagreeing with your Likelihoods but I'm not sure your evidence really makes sense. It does not really follow that a self-harm would always be avoided, the game of chess is all about sacrifice. Perhaps China thinks the West is short-sighted and would be politically bound to act against its long term interest, so why not? Maybe there are other reasons why you think the "CCP Virus" hypothesis is 360 stupid besides "self-harm"?

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#32

I think the closest natural virus was 95% similar. 5% seems pretty far for mutations. Is there a historical track record for finding the natural virus to a 99.9% similarity?

Two answers.

First, it was 96% identical. But that was in 2013. Presume it's being passed bat to bat every few days for 6 years, then at some point made the jump to another species, most likely in a wet market. It's really not unreasonable to imagine a 4% drift in that time.

Second, we don't identify every virus or every strain of every virus. Just because we found one that was 96% similar doesn't mean that all the other bats carry an identical virus. It's quite likely we found a distant cousin of the umpteenth-grand-parent of covid-19, and sequenced it.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#34
I might have missed this in the article - but I believe a separate recent article pointed out that none of the animals tested from the market had any signs of this virus - this China was looking at other sites.

Just not the wuhan lab which is a few hundred yards from the market?

There were also articles about a year before covid about how people were dealing out about the lax security of the Wuhan lab.

https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-lab...

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions...

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#35
post #3
post #2

I'm not convinced either way, but posting because this is an articulate well written non-sensational discussion of the idea. If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare…

However, the state-sponsored gain-of-function research towards particular properties is not an accident. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has published papers on how they were able to modify a bat virus to achieve more dangerous properties [77][88]. [77] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/ [88] - https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debat...

How close are we to DIY viruses?

If I was a teenager interested in biology, and I wanted to maybe build a "harmless" virus just to see if I could do it, how achievable might that be?

I watched computer viruses go from:

researchers -> tinkerers -> vandals -> criminals -> governments

At this point we just assume every computer is compromised, and we carve out enclaves of varying security for whatever risk level we're willing to assume.

I can imagine a future where pandemics happen at the same frequency as school shootings do today. How far away is that?

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#36
post #2

I'm not convinced either way, but posting because this is an articulate well written non-sensational discussion of the idea. If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare…

> Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly)

This narrative has to stop: the CCP just illegally annexed Hong Kong 27 years ahead of the hand over and violated it's autonomy in direct violation of the internationally recognized treaty, which may arguably require China to return HK to British control--but the UK is entirely destroyed due to COIVD and yet another lockdown and post Brexit economic downturn so they've been neutralized. The CCP set a very dangerous precedent, especially with regards to Taiwan in that region, along the lines of what Russia did when in annexed Crimea, which resulted in several years of armed conflict and even more untold human rights violations.

The CCP committed Crimes against Humanity to do so and passed the National Security Law which has removed rule of Law in what was once a beacon of Western values in an geographic and ethnically Eastern province, which had served as an experimental working model that proved the two systems and cultures could operate alongside one another which also served as the gateway for Western Investment into the Chinese Economy.

I've gone in depth in earlier posts, so look at it for a more elaborated view. But, this tired narrative breaks down under the most basic amount of scrutiny and needs to stop bein repeated: China as a collective may not have gained a lot, but the CCP has without a doubt consolidated a great deal of power and proven itself to be (for the time being until de-coupling takes place in earnest) an indispensable component due to its concentration to serve as the manufacturing hub of the World. And this is detrimental for many reasons I've outlined before.

As for no evidence, I honestly do not know what to make of Dr. Yan's work, especially because of who backed her, but her story is not only very compelling as a whole but it is also inline with the typical MO the CCP follows when they want to dissapear someone. And her involvement at the WHO as well as work in HK is what speaks volume, she elaborated quite a lot about the gain of function work that was being done in several labs where she and her other colleagues worked at, including Hong Kong, by the CCP with Corona based viruses--specifically those found in bats.

I'm completely out of my depth and only took basic virology courses in my undergrad so I cannot speak to the validity of her research papers, but what I can say, especially after SARS and H1N1 in my recent memory is that in retrospect is the CCP has always been an opportunistic bad actor during these pandemics, and its behaviour with the forced border opening, quarantine exemptions, mandatory contact tracing of locals with continued crossings from the mainland into Hong Kong exemplified to what lengths it will go to see that it's will be done, consequences be damned.

It wanted the protests to stop, the threat of secession from the CCP was real espcially with Billionaires like Jimmy Lai openly getting involved in the yellow movement (which is why he had to be made an example of) so the NSL had to be passed at all costs, and now we're seeing what that looks like as more and more Hongkongers fear for their lives as they are being imprisoned retroactively for something that was completely legal--protesting, even non-violent ones as in the case of Agnes Chow. As well as the removal of politicians and placing enforcement of financial censorship as it sees fit.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#37

This is a good, balanced article. I've been of a similar mind for over a year now. The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But an accident involving a well-intentioned gain-of-function experiment seems quite possible and was something that the US was concerned about with its own gain-of-function research. In any case, this, like so much of this other nonsense aro…

> The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But to harm someone else? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neande... ]] Dr. Paabo said the DNA segment may account in part for why people of Bangladeshi descent are dying at a high rate of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-09/oios-tan0930... ]] IMAGE: THESE G…

But, uh, Bangladesh itself has a lower rate, by far, than the U.K. While I greatly admire Dr. Paabo's work, this part seems pretty speculative.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#38
post #27

> There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap But there is so much more opportunity for the zoonotic possibilities. In fact, this is the seventh time we've seen Betacoronavirus cross from bats, through another animal, and then into humans. SARS came via palm civets. MERS came via camels. Four more types cause a mild cold only and so they…

Except this is not just a USA story. The reality is that China is shutting down any research into the origins of the virus - at least by doctors not loyal to the government. They are arresting journalists who don’t tell the story they want to tell.

In the vacuum of information, it’s fair to point out that the market not being the source means something else was - and - there was a lab that had the closest variant to the virus within the same city.

If smallpox broke out in Atlanta, so you think anyone on earth wouldn’t immediately come to the conclusion that the CDC had a accident with their BSl? And there are 14 in the USA. Just one in China - and it’s Wuhan.

Let’s not act like this is a story about American regulation or deregulation.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#39
post #18

This article is a masterpiece of disinformation.

Which always makes me incredulous why nobody ever breaks these down piece by piece if it's so obvious. Education is much more effective than proof by repeated assertions.

Re: The Lab Leak Hypothesis

#40

I might have missed this in the article - but I believe a separate recent article pointed out that none of the animals tested from the market had any signs of this virus - this China was looking at other sites. Just not the wuhan lab which is a few hundred yards from the market? There were also articles about a year before covid about how people were dealing out about the lax security of the Wuhan lab. https://thebul…

It's probably more helpful if you can share the URLs of the articles you're citing.

Snopes.com delved into the one about lax security, and it turned out to just be something somebody shared on a social media web site. (It had the name "ResearchGate", which many wrongly assumed meant it was an actual research paper when it was just a social media post.)

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/

Post reply on HN