America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented • Hacker News Board

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#21

Post by boringg » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

nikanj wrote: post #15

recursivedoubts wrote: post #6

We were sold down the river by our own elites, particularly on Wall Street and with the full complicity of the Economics Departments of the west. "Comparative Advantage", something something about corn and wool, meanwhile the whole supply chain was moved to China, our middle class was decimated and we went into tremendous amounts of debt to pretend everything was fine... Left, right... whatever. The elites have faile…

The stock market and housing prices are higher than ever, so a large part of the population is doing good. Not just the elites have benefited from the spoils, people with retirement portfolios and paid-off houses are sitting nice and flush.

Also a pretty broad brush to paint a whole "class" of people that being the "elites".

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#22

Post by MichaelZuo » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:03 PM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #9

fermienrico wrote: post #2

I wish Silicon Valley wasn’t just about software, particularly adtech. Some of the most brilliant minds are working on optimizing click ratios. There is some hardware tech (Apple, nVidia, Intel, Tesla), but vast majority of the engineers are working on cushy jobs paying $400k to serve ads. SV should be leading investments in Semiconductors, automation and manufacturing tech. It doesn’t even live up to its name. If yo…

Investment follows returns, or at least the speculative possibility of returns. Unfortunately, semiconductors, automation and manufacturing tech doesn't have the same upside capability. If you want 10-100X returns, you look elsewhere.

Well the return on investment is in fact greater than it appears for critical industries. It’s just that the upside is not entirely captured in dollars or RMB, or any other monetary currency for that matter.

So when people, who have been habituated to looking at numbers denominated in dollars, think about it they effectively have blinders on.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#23

Post by tomjen3 » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:04 PM UTC

fermienrico wrote: post #2

I wish Silicon Valley wasn’t just about software, particularly adtech. Some of the most brilliant minds are working on optimizing click ratios. There is some hardware tech (Apple, nVidia, Intel, Tesla), but vast majority of the engineers are working on cushy jobs paying $400k to serve ads. SV should be leading investments in Semiconductors, automation and manufacturing tech. It doesn’t even live up to its name. If yo…

It took 2 days for the Moderna vaccine to be created, and it still hasn't been approved in the EU. We could be doing amazing things in bio with mRNA, Crisper and deep learning but the entire thing is so wrapped up in regulation in order to protect the incumbents that it is not a space worth working in.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#24

Post by boringg » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:05 PM UTC

liminal wrote: post #13

"Made in America" is a nice slogan, but "Not Made by an Enemy" would be more apt. Made in an Ally would be fine too (Canada, Mexico, Western Europe...)

Haven't heard that one. That would be the best expression -- Made by an Ally to co-brand with Made in America. Made in America protectionism raises the ire of all its allies (which over the last 4 years it has trashed).

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#25

Post by habosa » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

nikanj wrote: post #15

recursivedoubts wrote: post #6

We were sold down the river by our own elites, particularly on Wall Street and with the full complicity of the Economics Departments of the west. "Comparative Advantage", something something about corn and wool, meanwhile the whole supply chain was moved to China, our middle class was decimated and we went into tremendous amounts of debt to pretend everything was fine... Left, right... whatever. The elites have faile…

The stock market and housing prices are higher than ever, so a large part of the population is doing good. Not just the elites have benefited from the spoils, people with retirement portfolios and paid-off houses are sitting nice and flush.

84% of wealth in the stock market is in the hands of the top 10%

Not sure about housing.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#26

Post by BitwiseFool » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

nikanj wrote: post #15

recursivedoubts wrote: post #6

We were sold down the river by our own elites, particularly on Wall Street and with the full complicity of the Economics Departments of the west. "Comparative Advantage", something something about corn and wool, meanwhile the whole supply chain was moved to China, our middle class was decimated and we went into tremendous amounts of debt to pretend everything was fine... Left, right... whatever. The elites have faile…

The stock market and housing prices are higher than ever, so a large part of the population is doing good. Not just the elites have benefited from the spoils, people with retirement portfolios and paid-off houses are sitting nice and flush.

I won't dispute that retirement portfolios and people with real estate have done quite well. But I personally think that many of these people are only doing well on-paper. This is only speculation, and you may rightfully call me a doomer, but I feel like most of this wealth is virtual.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#27

Post by MartianSquirrel » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

Tycho wrote: post #4

At a certain point, does automation/robotics swing the manufacturing base back towards the west?

Yes, but no.

Automation could, should and will bring back more manufacturing towards the west, in the sense that the west will produce more goods, in terms of net quantity/value compared to today.

It does not necessarily mean more jobs.

It does not mean the west will produce a higher percentage of global products.

Paul Krugman, amongst others, has written about the subject, I will try to link articles once I get home.

Quick edit: example: GM produces more cars than before the crisis but employs less people

Edit 2: here's one https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/krugman-trade-job...

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#28

Post by boringg » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

ragebol wrote: post #7

aeternum wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking about SV as just adtech is pretty reductionist. Through another lens, SV basically solved big data and global software distribution and scalability. Big tech has contributed to both the tools that allow handling massive data streams and ML. That foundation is what is helping data-driven manufacturing companies pull ahead.

And what purpose is that big data stuff typically used for? Something related to serving ads.

Optimizing our energy systems is another one.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#29

Post by Udik » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

liminal wrote: post #13

"Made in America" is a nice slogan, but "Not Made by an Enemy" would be more apt. Made in an Ally would be fine too (Canada, Mexico, Western Europe...)

What you call "enemy" is, in this case, simply a fully independent nation. That is, one free to have goals and strategies that put its interest first. What you call "allies" are subordinate nations, free to pursue their own interest as long as it doesn't conflict with the interest of the US. The US are a perfectly independent nation. So is China.

Re: America Can’t Even Produce the Things It Invented

#30

Post by prionassembly » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

ska wrote: post #8

prionassembly wrote: post #3

China is able to manipulate its exchange rate to regulate the relative prices of imports and exports. So are ~200 other economies in the world. The US doesn't have an exchange rate to fiddle with. Hell, it can hardly produce domestic inflation with its low interest rates, let alone devalue its currency. Cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

True, but there is a reason it's been called "exorbitant privilege" - while nothing here is clear cut there lots of reasonable people would argue that there is a net benefit to US.

Yes. To abuse mathematical language, the first-order effects of the exorbitant privilege are very positive for the US. Some negative second-order effects are arguable (strategic capacity / robustness); some are reminiscent of your typical third-world lobbying for a kind of state capitalism. Then, this has beneficiaries and losers.

"Good jobs" in particular is such specious rhetoric.