Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births • Hacker News Board

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#31

Post by RobertoG » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:57 AM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #11

FiReaNG3L wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, same as the economy, too many things depend on infinite growth (retirement funds being the main one).

Retirement funds don’t strictly requiring that, they just require that there are more workers than pensioners — you could also sort that with a higher retirement age. (Long-Term question I’ve had: how does this compare with UBI, which is kinda like a pension but for everyone?)

>>"Retirement funds don’t strictly requiring that, they just require that there are more workers than pensioners [..]"

That's not necessary. They require that the active workers (plus capital) are productive enough to keep life standards for everybody. There is not theoretical limit for how many workers are necessary. In the extreme it could be with one or zero workers.

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#32

Post by leereeves » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:57 AM UTC

tooltalk wrote: post #7

foreigner wrote: post #3

So what's the long-term plan here? A country's population is just supposed to keep growing... forever?

unification with the North, which has higher birth rate (1.9) than the South (1.1)?

How would that work? The South isn't going to submit to Kim Jong-un, and he isn't going to give up power.

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#33

Post by jmnicolas » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:57 AM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #24

Allenaz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we don't fix the stupid economic system in place and throw immigrants at the problem, all the while making their origin countries even worse since it's now deprived of the ones bright enough to qualify for skilled labour... doesn't sound like the best of plans.

Bright people have a whole world to move to, not just South Korea. For example, I went from the UK to Germany, and my sister-in-law went from the Philippines to the UK.

What about "not bright" people?

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#34

Post by LadyCailin » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:58 AM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #23

rmrfstar wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumption that countries need population growth is insane. Humans are not bacteria, we should not pursue endless population growth. What we need is serious investments in technology to make elder care easier.

What are we if not bigger bacteria?

Humans, with the ability, if not collective desire, to plan 50-100 years in advance.

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#35

Post by RobertoG » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:59 AM UTC

akmarinov wrote: post #14

foreigner wrote: post #3

So what's the long-term plan here? A country's population is just supposed to keep growing... forever?

Yep, colonize other planets, spread humanity across the stars.

No need to go to another star. There is plenty of space around our star (1).

(1) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_Ring_(habitat)

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#36

Post by jmnicolas » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 9:59 AM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #25

akmarinov wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, colonize other planets, spread humanity across the stars.

Getting a human to another star is probably not going to happen without some crazy physics breakthrough. They’re just so bloody far away

Even if you would manage to bring a few humans far away, it doesn't solve the problem for the rest of us.

As long as we depend on dwindling supplies of fossil fuel to send things in space, we're certainly not going anywhere.

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#37

Post by mytailorisrich » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 10:04 AM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #25

akmarinov wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, colonize other planets, spread humanity across the stars.

Getting a human to another star is probably not going to happen without some crazy physics breakthrough. They’re just so bloody far away

Currently it indeed seems impossible to get a human being from Earth to another star system because the trip is too long for a human lifespan.

But if we accept that the people leaving will never see the end of the journey then the problem is one of keeping a liveable, self-contained environment in space for 100+ years, which does not require crazy physics breakthrough at all, just technological advances.

This is not going to solve Earth's problems, though.

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#38

Post by nayaketo » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 10:04 AM UTC

FiReaNG3L wrote: post #4

foreigner wrote: post #3

So what's the long-term plan here? A country's population is just supposed to keep growing... forever?

Yes, same as the economy, too many things depend on infinite growth (retirement funds being the main one).

Theoretically, if immigration wasn't an option, what would happen in this case? Just imagine entire earth is well developed, so this issue is present on every single nation on earth. What would happen then? Would economy just slow down or would everything come crashing down? Would automation see widespread adoption? Anything else?

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#39

Post by albertgoeswoof » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 10:05 AM UTC

jmnicolas wrote: post #28

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #5

Birth rates are dropping globally and we’re all living longer. The local answer for counties like South Korea is immigration from areas that have higher birth rates. With climate change likely to affect the habitability of many of our current settlements, as a species we’ll need to support massive migration shifts over the next few hundred years. So the problem kind of solves itself if we manage migration and resourc…

> The local answer for counties like South Korea is immigration from areas that have higher birth rates. It's not as if people and culture where fungible. Multiculturalism is just a naive dream that as been elevated as a dogma in certain countries, but it doesn't work on the ground.

What do you mean it doesn’t work on the ground? Culture is completely fungible, humans have migrated constantly and continuously changed culture, it’s how ideas and technology has transferred and persisted all over the globe.

Do you think your ancestors would recognise your culture? Will your descendants?

(Hint: They would/will not.)

Re: Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

#40

Post by mytailorisrich » Mon, Jan 04, 2021, 10:16 AM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #11

FiReaNG3L wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, same as the economy, too many things depend on infinite growth (retirement funds being the main one).

Retirement funds don’t strictly requiring that, they just require that there are more workers than pensioners — you could also sort that with a higher retirement age. (Long-Term question I’ve had: how does this compare with UBI, which is kinda like a pension but for everyone?)

Actually, retirement funds only require capital growth in real terms, which means the economy growing faster than inflation, because the principle of a retirement fund is to invest current contributions to pay future pensions.

More workers than pensioners is required when the system works by using current contributions to pay current pensions (which is usually how state pensions work). [Which should also provides some information about how (un)realistic UBI is]