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Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

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Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#511
I am surprised that the concept of incrementality is not discussed more in this context.

At a high level, marketers measure the effectiveness of ads using metrics like ROI, ROAS, etc. The way those metrics are measured is by choosing a certain attribution model (eg: last click, first click, etc) and attribution window (eg: 1 day view, 28 day click). As you can already tell, it's a bit like accounting - you can get different results depending on which rules you follow. So clearly, there's a lot to criticize.

But, a lot of that criticism goes away as soon as you introduce incrementality and start adjusting for it (randomly split the population, only show ads to one group, then observe the results between the two groups). If the two groups exhibit similar behavior, your product is already getting a good amount of WOM and other sources of distribution, so no need to push that paid channel quite as hard (or at all). Most young companies are not in that position, and the amount of adjustment needed is in the sub 20% range. Whatever the range, my point is that the concept of needing to make this adjustment is well known and understood, and the fact that this was never mentioned in the original article is really strange - it almost sounds like if the involved people didn't know about it.

Here's more info on incrementality: https://www.adroll.com/blog/marketing-analytics/beginners-gu...

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's critically important for adtech companies' customers, since it's an essential part of determining return on investment. But it's also critically important for both adtech companies and data scientists who work in the space to direct people's attention away from those sorts of metrics. You generally don't want to call the attention of the person who signs your paycheck toward the fact that it's all but impossible…

This is creeping pretty close to the legal definition of fraud. But advertising has had a fair amount of safe-harbor carve-outs for over a 100 years or so that are not available to other industries. So it is no surprise it continues today. edit: I hate to say it but the auto-downvoters here on HN are approaching reddit levels. Everything I said above is true.

It is not fraud to distract from evidence that your product might not work. It is fraud to claim your product works if it doesn't.

Therefore ad companies are not going to try to prove that their product doesn't work.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are pretty easy to measure on Google or FB with their "lift study" tools and a conversion pixel. The lift tools will let you create a holdout group of X% of people who should be targeted by your ad. They won't see the ad, but you can still measure the rate at which they convert on your site. Then, you can compare that conversion rate to the rate of people who actually saw/clicked the ad. Conversion pixels are n…

>These are pretty easy to measure on Google or FB with their "lift study" tools and a conversion pixel. I hate that Facebook and Google have normalized this invasion of privacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_tracking

This was normalized on the web long before these companies started - they're just the best to do it (though Google did acquire one of the earliest players in DoubleClick).

The term "conversion pixel" is a misnomer these days for a Javascript snippet or API call - the concept predates JS and used to refer to a 1x1 transparent GIF.

Anyways, that generation of tech is being pushed out due to browser privacy enhancements and will be replaced with privacy-protecting browser and server APIs that introduce noise to the data, such that you can still measure the directional/relative impact of advertising without being able to tell exactly who converted.

There are a few competing industry proposals involving differential privacy/cryptography/blockchain/fixed entropy that are being publicly discussed here: https://github.com/w3c/web-advertising

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#515
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is creeping pretty close to the legal definition of fraud. But advertising has had a fair amount of safe-harbor carve-outs for over a 100 years or so that are not available to other industries. So it is no surprise it continues today. edit: I hate to say it but the auto-downvoters here on HN are approaching reddit levels. Everything I said above is true.

It's sad to see the downvote culture come here. Downvoting is meant for removing contributions that don't add much to a discussion, not for indicating whether someone agrees or disagrees with you. It seems to be a norm that is spreading though, sadly. It would appear jodrellblank is perfectly demonstrating how to misuse the feature, by calling you boring. Not exactly the kind of attitude that we want to have around h…

I also always thought that downvoting should be reserved for low quality comments, but I had been corrected and even dang said:

Downvoting for disagreement has always been ok on HN.[1]

I don't really like it, but it has always been the case on HN. The question is if the community voting behavior has actually changed.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17666145

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise, I probably haven’t seen an ad for coca cola or kleenex in a while. Once a brand is ubiquitous to the point where soda becomes coke and tissues become kleenex in the lexicon, it feels like ad spend is wasted.

Brand advertising is different. It is there to remind people about the brand. Companies do it because they have the analytics that show that it works.

I think both Uber and CocaCola has a lot of work to do until I like any of them. I like CocaCola as a product though. Never tried Uber. For example I really like some Nestle products, but try to avoid them because of their bad company/brand reputation, even if their product is both cheaper and tastier I buy from a competitor instead. Whatever a company stands for and how they act will affect their brand.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#517
A related article is https://www.forbes.com/sites/augustinefou/2021/01/02/when-bi.... (It was posted at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25620707, but the topic and discussion are substantially the same as this one, so we merged them.)

Note: this thread is being paginated, so you need to click More at the bottom of the page to read the rest of the comments. Or via these:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25623858&p=2

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25623858&p=3

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#518
post #279
post #259

>Stopped [some] Spending on Digital Ads, Nothing Happened. Why? [Added "some" for clarity.] Let me try to restate the author's article because he presents it in a confusing way. The issue is that both Google and Facebook have "core ad tech" that works decently with proven ROI -- and they both have "additional ad tech inventory" (a.k.a the partners/affiliates) that's much lower quality : Facebook "quality" ad placemen…

Source?

Really? Downvoted because I wanted to know the source for the proven ROI?

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#519
post #514
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This all true. Source: My 11 years running ads on these platforms.

By that logic any lottery winner could argue that lotteries are a great pension plan.

If they consistently win lotteries year after year with a good ROI, sure. Not sure how that comparison works.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#520
post #259

>Stopped [some] Spending on Digital Ads, Nothing Happened. Why? [Added "some" for clarity.] Let me try to restate the author's article because he presents it in a confusing way. The issue is that both Google and Facebook have "core ad tech" that works decently with proven ROI -- and they both have "additional ad tech inventory" (a.k.a the partners/affiliates) that's much lower quality : Facebook "quality" ad placemen…

There’s a useful correlary to this for consumer tech.

While it is tempting to monetize with a publisher network, these networks don’t work well enough to justify their own spend for many advertisers. As a publisher you’ll likely be stuck in a race to the bottom until you have sufficient scale for direct ad deals (read as 10s of million MAU).

I’m not sure if kicking fraud out of these platforms would raise ROI, or reveal that the real price of banner ads and interstitials is 0.

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