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Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

bloomberg.com

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Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#21

> Bitcoin should eventually climb to about about $400,000, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, told Bloomberg Television in a Dec. 16 interview Wild speculation if you ask me. I don't think anyone can predict where the price is going. These same guys were saying $50k in 2017.

$400K would be justified if Bitcoin replaces gold.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#22
post #21

> Bitcoin should eventually climb to about about $400,000, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, told Bloomberg Television in a Dec. 16 interview Wild speculation if you ask me. I don't think anyone can predict where the price is going. These same guys were saying $50k in 2017.

$400K would be justified if Bitcoin replaces gold.

More crazy and wild speculation

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#24

I made money on this, but the whole thing makes me sad. I feel sad cause I keep thinking, if I gambled more money I could have retired. And that makes me sad because it cheapens the value of work. To think that all the decades of work that I have to put in, I could have avoided by gambling more money. Idk, it feels totally wrong.

There are two ways to look at life - by the quality of your decisions or by the outcomes. It sounds like you're doing the later, which means indexing your happiness to something you can't control. There's a lot of randomness in life, the question is "did I make the wisest decision under the circumstances when I made it?"

Example: Should you take a bet which has a 99.99% random probability to win $100 and .01% probability to lose $100? The smart decision is to take the bet because probabilistically you will win. Even if you get unlucky and lose, the original decision is sound, and if the opportunity to bet comes up again, you should.

Now this example: you and your friend have a choice to pay tuition or buy tuition's worth of lottery tickets. You chose tuition and land in a lucrative but not extravagant career. Your friend buys the tickets and ends up winning a life-changing amount of money. You'd be a fool to regret your decision, back when you made it, odds were overwhelming that whoever bought lottery tickets would end up destitute. The fact that your friend literally won the lottery doesn't make him less of an idiot, and chances are if he keeps making decisions this way he'll fuck up and be worse off than you sooner or later.

That's the analogy for your situation. In fact, there's still a good chance that all the bitcoin millionaires wouldn't be able to cash out and can still crash and burn in a way that makes you much happier with your original decision. Personally, I "sat out" the late 90's dot-com boom and everyone told me I was an idiot and missing out... until it imploded on them.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#25

I made money on this, but the whole thing makes me sad. I feel sad cause I keep thinking, if I gambled more money I could have retired. And that makes me sad because it cheapens the value of work. To think that all the decades of work that I have to put in, I could have avoided by gambling more money. Idk, it feels totally wrong.

The part where hard work comes into play is this:

When one understands the value proposition of Bitcoin so thoroughly that they have the confidence to buy a large amount and hold through the bad times.

This takes a tremendous amount of research and confidence in your own ability to discern truth. Then, upon deciding that Bitcoin is worth the risk, one must tolerate derision and scoffing from their peers year after year. Many people in one's life will loudly express their desire for you to fail. It is very alienating. One must often create a completely new life for themselves. This is why revolutionary change is so difficult. The resistance to change is so massive that people will openly hate those who push for it.

That you view it as gambling and low-effort makes it clear you haven't spent a lot of time understanding Bitcoin's value proposition. That's fine, but just know that there are a lot of people who have spent years of their lives researching and working on this technology. It is not gambling to them.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#26

Does anyone understand the market enough to explain who the sellers of bitcoin are? The daily volumes are several times the mined quantity so there must be people/institutions quite willing to part with their coins at their current prices. Is it - people who had a specific price target in mind and are selling? People who need liquidity? Some other big aspect I am missing?

It's impossible to obtain reliable volume numbers since many exchanges either make them up or artificially inflate them with wash trading.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#27
post #26

Does anyone understand the market enough to explain who the sellers of bitcoin are? The daily volumes are several times the mined quantity so there must be people/institutions quite willing to part with their coins at their current prices. Is it - people who had a specific price target in mind and are selling? People who need liquidity? Some other big aspect I am missing?

It's impossible to obtain reliable volume numbers since many exchanges either make them up or artificially inflate them with wash trading.

Can you provide some evidence of regulated exchanges partaking in wash trading? Would be very curious to see.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#28
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether.

Still? I thought they got shut down. They were in the government's bullseye for quite a while.

Nope, still alive and kicking. Still no proof they're doing something illegal. If there was proof, it wouldn't exist anymore.

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#29

> Bitcoin should eventually climb to about about $400,000, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, told Bloomberg Television in a Dec. 16 interview Wild speculation if you ask me. I don't think anyone can predict where the price is going. These same guys were saying $50k in 2017.

I always find it amusing that prominent investors can move the markets with these interviews regardless of the validity of the underlying statement they make (and how they're probably very much aware of this...)

Re: Bitcoin Breaches $34,000 as Rally Extends into New Year

#30
post #27
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impossible to obtain reliable volume numbers since many exchanges either make them up or artificially inflate them with wash trading.

Can you provide some evidence of regulated exchanges partaking in wash trading? Would be very curious to see.

The ones engaging in wash trading are not particularly regulated...
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