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Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

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Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the HN sentiment comes from a common feeling among techies that they are somehow immune to influence from advertising, combined with a high adoption rate of ad blockers. I don't believe this at all. The reason I am skeptical of the effectiveness of advertising is despite engaging with dozens of people over the years, I have never had a single person provide me with convincing evidence that it works. Inste…

Google's yearly revenue

I'm asking for evidence that advertising is an effective use of money. All you're saying is that people spend money.

By your logic, Scientology and Gwyneth Paltrow are also selling the real deal.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is Coca Cola rent seeking? How about Apple? I suspect you aren’t using that term correctly but maybe I’m missing something.

Coca Cola sells water with flavouring and quite astonishing amounts of sugar. Apple sells nice devices made by what might as well be slave labour. Both are propped up - actually maintained - by huge and vastly expensive brand management strategies. The criticisms of individual campaigns here are missing the point. It's not about micro ad spend, but the perception of value and manipulation of behaviour created by the…

> Both are propped up - actually maintained - by huge and vastly expensive brand management strategies.

In the case of Coca Cola, I agree - in the case of Apple, not at all. "Keyboardgate" aside, their products are vastly superior to the competition in build quality and life time. A typical Windows laptop is unusable after two, three years (almost all are made from plastic which breaks or looks extremely ugly rather sooner than later), and has next to no resale value while in contrast even old cheesegrater Mac Pro's fetch many hundreds of dollars today. iPhones are supplied with firmware updates far longer than most Android phones outside the flagship Pixel line are. OS X is, while it has gotten locked down a fair bit over the last years, still way better than Windows as it doesn't do tracking bullshit and start menu ads and decently better than Linux because no matter which device, stuff usually Just Works (tm) without having to fiddle for hours to get something as basic as a Bluetooth headset working.

Apple built themselves a loyal following with pure quality superiority over the competition, unlike HP or Dell who are only surviving because of enterprises who follow the "no one got fired for buying IBM" line.

And that doesn't even touch that it's Apple who's at the forefront of innovation. iPods, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watch, AirPods, now the M1 CPU - these entire device classes were created by Apple. When was the last time you heard about something truly innovative from the Windows/MS/Google side of IT? Only thing I can remember is the Google Glass.

What Apple is doing is not a "brand management strategy" per se - it is delivering actual value and innovation instead of rent-seeking. And for what it's worth Tesla are doing the same thing.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#393

Playing devils advocate, couldn’t this just be reflective of the fact that Ubers brand reach us strong enough that there is very little advertising that gives them a marginal benefit? Uber owns taxi services as a brand as much as Google does search.

you are right; some of the biggest brands need to do the least advertising

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#394
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah I think Google and other advertisers are great at predicting what people will buy and then shows them ads for it. Seems to be entirely subjective. I bought a new blade for a bread cutting machine on amazon, the last one lasted ~25 years. My current recommendations: blades for bread cutting machines. I also checked some Christmas decorations on Amazon, but didn't buy any. So next to the blades I get Christmas d…

The answer to your confusion is that un sophisticated remarketing (showing ads for searched or purchased items) has in nearly all cases a measurable improvement on ROI. Improvements to filter out useless ad views are much more complicated and expensive. Advertisers actually don’t care about any individual case, but buy on aggregate results.

Oh I don't think anyone is confused about why this happens or why it's still worth it. The next step we need to take is to agree that it is unethical to steal many people's time for a little reward.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#395

Together with https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25623858 it might appear like there's a coordinated takedown of ad tech companies going on. Google derives 80% of its revenue from ads, Facebook 99%. Imagine these giants coming down if it turns out that online ads aren't effective? EDIT: Tweaked the wording regarding the alleged "coordinated takedown" as a reaction to a comment.

Privately knowledgeable parties (not me) have been talking about this for ages. A close friend quoted the same %age as the podcast underlying the tweet did as being fake.

By the way how impressive is the scammer level of sophistication. App level man-in—middle-esque (probably imprecise terminology) forging of attribution based on massive monitoring and siphoning of what otherwise would have been organic conversions. Super cool. And those were the ones they caught imagine what they didn’t.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#396
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See the Pepsi Refresh Project of 2010. Where Pepsi redirected a sizable amount of ad budget (including super bowl ads) to community projects. They abandonded this strategy after a while because they lost market share. This is the biggest large scale test of advertising I'm aware of. But it probably doesn't apply to all products.

They only lost market share because everybody else was still using advertising. Therefore, this is not a test in favor of advertising (only in the prisoner's dilemma sense).

If advertising is an arms race with more total cost than total benefit, that would be an argument that advertising works. Because anyone, at any given time, will benefit from running advertising.

It also means advertising is a net loss to society, but that is separate from the question 'does advertising work'

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#397
post #80
post #20

There was a freakonomics podcast recently about advertising (online and traditional). No one can actually prove it has any ROI at all. No one is willing to run the experiments necessary. In the few cases of natural experiments, where ads got turned off for some people by accident, there was no change in buying behavior. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-part-1/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-…

This is incorrect. Companies do the experiments. They just don’t publish the results. Why would they? The idea that Amazon doesn’t know the ROI on their ad/marketing spend is laughable.

But then why do they keep doing laughably bad advertising?

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#398
post #3

I have this suspicion that mobile ads have way weaker effect than claimed. No-one in adtech has any interest in finding out. Marketers don't want to lose budgets or importance either. So a lot of money is wasted on annoying people. How sad.

Engaging random marketing consultants is a good way to waste money on ads. However, anyone engineering for advertising from the start of your distribution plans should be able to measure these things. It’s not hard to track which signups came from ad clicks versus organic traffic. The problem is that most companies start out focused on their apps and simply assume advertising is a totally independent function that ha…

Even if you do this the ad-people will claim that showing people ads repeatedly will make them buy your product eventually. Maybe when they actually need such a product. At this point you cannot connect the events anymore. This effect is probably weak but not falsifiable.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#399

I always saw ads as a zero sum game. We all have limited dollars and attention. When you advertise, you might slightly change the allocation of attention and dollar to your product. When everyone advertises, it is back to the same status quo. And when everyone stops advertising it ends up being the same. I really hope more companies would stop advertising or at least question the value they are getting out of those m…

I always saw ads as a zero sum game. We all have limited dollars and attention. When you advertise, you might slightly change the allocation of attention and dollar to your product.

That's worth thinking hard about. Is advertising worth it? With most US consumers spent out to the limit of their income, all advertising does is try to move demand around. It's thus zero-sum and a waste of resources for the country.

I'd argue that ads should not be a tax-deductible business expense.

Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend

#400
post #362

This has already 303 comments so probably no one will see mine, but I was planning this year to start doing some online advertisement to get more visitors to my website and convert them into Patreons. But I think this will not a good idea after all. Any other recommendations in how to be more visible to more people on the Internet?

He who cracks the code of the call center assisted lead gen in the online world will win the day. This is why "influencer" marketing is such a draw. There is NO more attributable conversion statistic than "I talked to THIS person, and had them talk to YOU in order to make a purchase". I've run agent-assisted call center lead gen for education industry and over the past 10 years, nothing has been more profitable or effective. The call center conversion rates subsidized the HUGE losses on pure digital and other ads.
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