Back in the early 2010s I worked in ad tech on a data science team, and one of the things we were pushing for was causal A/B testing; basically turn off a campaign's advertising to a % of people and correlate it with sales to measure ROI. As we were kicking this off I was at a conference chatting with an executive at another ad tech company. His response: "oh yeah I know a guy who tried that, he's not in the industry…
Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
201–210 of 933 posts
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fortune 500 is a cesspool of insane inefficiency balanced by equally ~~insane rent seeking~~ insanely secure revenue. The sooner everyone understands this, the better.
First, care to define your terms? Second, inefficient relative to what? Third, so far, what you've written here looks like a rant, not a predictive theory nor a powerful explanatory theory. Would you like to quantify your claim? Or at least make it more precise? As it is, I don't think it advances your argument. I'm interested in strong logic, data, explanations, and persuasion. I see none yet.
The sad thing is it's not inefficiency relative comparable things. But anyone that has worked at these places or sold B2B to them just knows it on intuitive level that they are garbage, and need a heavy sedative to think there are no alternative.
> not a predictive theory nor a powerful explanatory theory
It's not. It's about letting go of some efficient market ideal and then finding new ideas.
We can look at Fortune 500 case-by-case to learn new things
> Cola cola
Sugar drug cartel. Despicable business with very stable revenue despite being a net drag on society. (At least "regular" drugs have a lot more upside!)
> Proctor and Gamble
Just as restaurants are reaching down market, and the inefficiency of everyone cooking and cleaning is starting to have market implications, we should see their reign finally dwindle. Wash-and-Fold should follow laundromats. The specialization means that stupid differentiation between products for uninformative consumers (c.f. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopolistic_competition) should go away and restaurants and laundromats optimize.
Personal soaps and cosmetics (of course many soaps are cosmetics) however will stay as cultural reasons ensure people will continue to clean themselves and not contract that out for the foreseeable future.
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is Coca Cola rent seeking? How about Apple? I suspect you aren’t using that term correctly but maybe I’m missing something.
Effectively every restaurant in the US has to pay either PepsiCo or Coca Cola. Similarly, if you want to buy a non-alcoholic beverage at the grocery store it's mostly down to those two (with Dr. Pepper having a much smaller but still significant stake). Any competitor that emerges just gets bought up by one of the three. Apple's half of the phone Duopoly. Either you pay them or pay Google if you want a phone and want…
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is Coca Cola rent seeking? How about Apple? I suspect you aren’t using that term correctly but maybe I’m missing something.
Effectively every restaurant in the US has to pay either PepsiCo or Coca Cola. Similarly, if you want to buy a non-alcoholic beverage at the grocery store it's mostly down to those two (with Dr. Pepper having a much smaller but still significant stake). Any competitor that emerges just gets bought up by one of the three. Apple's half of the phone Duopoly. Either you pay them or pay Google if you want a phone and want…
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really, scientists for example also have their whole careers based on the truth of some theories that they use. However, they're willing to put them to proof in different ways. The reason they do so is that they have a high degree of confidence that these theories are true. This cannot be said of people doing advertisement.
I’m not exactly sure what you’re trying to say. Scientists’ whole careers are based on running hypotheses to prove or disprove their theories. That IS their career.
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is Coca Cola rent seeking? How about Apple? I suspect you aren’t using that term correctly but maybe I’m missing something.
Effectively every restaurant in the US has to pay either PepsiCo or Coca Cola. Similarly, if you want to buy a non-alcoholic beverage at the grocery store it's mostly down to those two (with Dr. Pepper having a much smaller but still significant stake). Any competitor that emerges just gets bought up by one of the three. Apple's half of the phone Duopoly. Either you pay them or pay Google if you want a phone and want…
Calling it all "rent seeking" is not a hill I want to die one.
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#207I think a lot of this was already obvious to slightly-savvy mobile app users. Look at pretty much any free-with-ads app; a majority of the ads are going to be ads for other free-with-ads apps, many of which you already have installed. The thing is, outside of the Internet most ad spend is for marketing ubiquity, not direct response. You don't really buy, say, TV advertising with the expectation of getting so many cli…
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#208If you are properly doing performance marketing, that means you're going after the best opportunities to get customers, and you're paying as little as you can for those opportunities. If you cut out a whole set of opportunities from consideration, that should not change your spend. If those were really some of your best opportunities, that means now you'll have to show ads where you have worst opportunities. Either you'll have a lower chance of getting a conversion or you'll have to spend more for each ad... either way, your opportunity cost should go up. Basically you've constrained your supply without constraining your demand, so the price might go up, but demand still gets fulfilled.
Except, this isn't what really happens in the industry. Instead, you're given an ad budget and a campaign window, and you're told to burn through the budget within the campaign window. Most ad networks will try to find the best inventory to give you out of that campaign window... except often the "performance" they're chasing isn't "performance". It's "impressions" or "unique users" or "clicks" or "conversions" (where the goal post on what a conversion means is moved to "goes to the landing page" instead of "buys the product"). So what they end up doing is finding the cheapest (i.e. crummiest and least likely to actually perform) of whatever your "performance" goal is. So you'll get impressions that are least likely to click, or clicks that are least likely to convert, or conversions that are least likely to actually buy your product.
This happens, because there is actually a fixed constraint on the quality side of the supply.
You're trying to spend $X in a tight time window, and the dirty industry secret is the need to spend that money so quickly is the real challenge. Ad networks don't get paid the part of the budget they don't drain. The ad spend is a big deal. More important than performance. Ad execs' comp are tied to that spend.
But when you cut a big chunk of the supply, the expectation is you're not going to hit the same spend, so... you cut your budget too. Well now that changes everything. Now you don't have to spend so much money over so much time. Imagine if you cut your budget in half, but because you are performance focused, you want to lose the worst performing half. You should expect better performance. Way better. Because now some other idiot "performance" marketer is going to buy up all those crummy bits of inventory, and you're going to pay the big money to outbid them for the bits of inventory they were going to get that would have performed well.
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#209I work at a fortune 50 company, a top 10 advertizer. We have a universal holdout poplation that NEVER recieves any directed/targeted marketing that serves as a control group for many marketing programs. Further in more mass areas there are direct A/B tests that go on. There is a very strong awareness of campaigns that are measurable with ROI's and other programs that are general branding that you can see the impacts…
It boggles my mind when HN commenters start claiming that measuring ad campaigns is impossible or that ads are universally ineffective. Anyone who has spent time working with large ad campaigns should know the tools and methods used to measure these things.
I suspect the HN sentiment comes from a common feeling among techies that they are somehow immune to influence from advertising, combined with a high adoption rate of ad blockers. HN commenters tend to assume that other consumers are just like themselves, which is far from the truth. In the real world, advertising (when done right) is not only very effective but not that difficult to measure using modern technology.
Re: Uber discovered they’d been defrauded out of 2/3 of their ad spend
#210There was a freakonomics podcast recently about advertising (online and traditional). No one can actually prove it has any ROI at all. No one is willing to run the experiments necessary. In the few cases of natural experiments, where ads got turned off for some people by accident, there was no change in buying behavior. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-part-1/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-…
https://thecorrespondent.com/100/the-new-dot-com-bubble-is-h...