Notes on Technology in the 2020s
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Notes on Technology in the 2020s
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Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#2I like how hardware based this list is. I definitely don't think we have hit the limits (or anywhere closed) of software productivity improvements, but given that software rests on top of hardware, it would be very exciting to see how these hardware productivity improvements would translate to software productivity improvements as a first derivative effect.
As an aside, what does the U.S. need to do to make sure this list happens in the U.S. as much as possible and not in places like China with less regulatory capture and more state backing?
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#3I like how hardware based this list is. I definitely don't think we have hit the limits (or anywhere closed) of software productivity improvements, but given that software rests on top of hardware, it would be very exciting to see how these hardware productivity improvements would translate to software productivity improvements as a first derivative effect. As an aside, what does the U.S. need to do to make sure this…
That's a good point - for example, the smartphone was a hardware improvement which led to a Cambrian explosion of software products.
Regarding the question about making sure it happens in the U.S.: A big factor would be increasing skilled immigration. eg. Currently there are Chinese students getting STEM PhDs at Ivy-league universities who will be forced to return to China after graduation - that is madness.
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#4I like how hardware based this list is. I definitely don't think we have hit the limits (or anywhere closed) of software productivity improvements, but given that software rests on top of hardware, it would be very exciting to see how these hardware productivity improvements would translate to software productivity improvements as a first derivative effect. As an aside, what does the U.S. need to do to make sure this…
That's a good point - for example, the smartphone was a hardware improvement which led to a Cambrian explosion of software products. Regarding the question about making sure it happens in the U.S.: A big factor would be increasing skilled immigration. eg. Currently there are Chinese students getting STEM PhDs at Ivy-league universities who will be forced to return to China after graduation - that is madness.
Definitely, I personally know really smart Mainland Chinese graduates who ended up falling in love with the U.S. and its values, but had to move back to China due to U.S. immigration policy.
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#5pretty nice review and forecast. I just feel it a little bit "old-fashioned" to talk technology progression as if Humans are the only living species on Earth...
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#6"With Starlink revenue, SpaceX will be able to do the work on life support systems and mission planning to enable a human mission by 2029. NASA could be involved as a partner, but SpaceX would tolerate zero government obstacles."
I still hope such a big step will be driven by democracy.
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#7I like how hardware based this list is. I definitely don't think we have hit the limits (or anywhere closed) of software productivity improvements, but given that software rests on top of hardware, it would be very exciting to see how these hardware productivity improvements would translate to software productivity improvements as a first derivative effect. As an aside, what does the U.S. need to do to make sure this…
One straightforward approach would be to make it possible to actually make things in the U.S. again.
Reducing regulation, encouraging tax subsidies for small manufacturers, welcoming immigrant entrepreneurs with open arms i.e. startup visa with lightweight requirements, and developing a national industrial policy that changes the incentives around offshoring vs onshoring. (While avoiding picking winners and losers to the greatest extent possible.)
A lot more could be done around tax policy.
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a good point - for example, the smartphone was a hardware improvement which led to a Cambrian explosion of software products. Regarding the question about making sure it happens in the U.S.: A big factor would be increasing skilled immigration. eg. Currently there are Chinese students getting STEM PhDs at Ivy-league universities who will be forced to return to China after graduation - that is madness.
Definitely, I personally know really smart Mainland Chinese graduates who ended up falling in love with the U.S. and its values, but had to move back to China due to U.S. immigration policy.
I feel like that is the lowest of low hanging fruit in immigration policy, to let people who we subsidize their schooling stay in the US. (Most schools have a variety of government subsidies).
Re: Notes on Technology in the 2020s
#9I'm particularly excited that the author mentioned manufacturing in space. I can imagine a future where purchasing power is greater in space than in some countries on Earth. Which was often the cause of earth based risky emigration. I can see the same by the 2050's