Scotland will begin talks with Ireland about forming a United Republic of Celt.
Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
381–390 of 456 posts
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#382Earlier quoted context omitted.
(Lived in UK and Ireland, and various other EU countries) NI is now effectively separated from the rest of the UK, so will rely on Ireland a lot more for trade. For sure there will be more cooperation between the two countries, but in the last survey only 20% of NI residents favoured a united Ireland. [0] I doubt Brexit has shifted that number too much. I'd more expect NI to become an independent country, but Scotlan…
Other polls seem to range from 29% [1] to 80% [2]. I think it depends who's asked! [1] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-nireland-poll/poll... [2] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-uni...
Polls [1] and [2] are polls of the electorate on different sides of the border. Both need to approve for unification to happen.
In Northern Ireland identification primarily with the UK or with Ireland is a defining identity issue for Protestant and Catholic communities respectively. The 29% figure for near term unification can still rise but campaigners for a United Ireland there face two problems: firstly that many in their own community broadly sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland are concerned that changing the status quo now would lead to a return to the sectarian violence of a generation ago, and secondly that the Protestant community is slightly larger and also less flexible on national identity.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#383I think if you want to make a prediction you should think about the odds you'll take for a bet against that prediction. This way you also assigning it a likelihood, even if only a low bar (a bet you'd always take).
For example, I'll happily bet some amount of money at 1:1 odds against some of the predictions here.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#384* Facebook will enter a downward spiral and start declining * A security breach bigger than SolarWinds will be discovered and will severely affect market position of a major cloud provider * Google will make its biggest acquisition ever * Inequality, censorship, and polarization will continue to increase
> * Google will make its biggest acquisition ever Which one?
I have no idea. I believe they will start realizing that click-based advertisement is an increasingly unsustainable and flawed revenue model and will look for a ways to start a significant portion of revenue from another source. Assuming that:
1) They don't have time to build it. 2) Since, they will need to buy it, it should be a business that already generates significant revenue, thus the biggest acquisition price tag 3) The longer they stick to click-based ad revenue the lower their chances to diversify and the higher the chance that someone else comes forward with a new revenue model that will irreversibly undermine Google's.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply I expect the government to do so, and I also expect that it will usually be done in a controlled fashion and for broader economic benefit. Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever), this will be done by people no…
> I expect the government to do so. I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings. > Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever) Bitcoin is 10 years old, there are already numerous forks which changed several parameters of the original Bitcoin implementation. According to their market va…
> I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings.
Most people don’t have significant cash savings. I forget the percentage, but a ridiculously high fraction of the USA population can’t put together $1,000 for an emergency.
> Bitcoin is 10 years old
Early days then. The Euro is only 22 years old, and decimalisation of GBP [0] happened about 50 years ago. Both still have people shaking their canes and dreaming of the Before Times.
Also: the 5,600,000-fold deflation of BTC in that time makes it almost, but not quite, as impressively unstable as hyperinflation, just in the other direction — it’s not a good thing for the economy when everyone holds onto their money instead of spending it.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#386Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#387Bitcoin backers will continue to pretend that their hyping of one of the worst ideas in modern history has nothing to do with their significant financial stakes in it.
I'm curious - why do you think that Bitcoin is "one of the worst ideas in modern history"? It's a very bold claim, I'd like to understand your reasoning.
One issue: https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/12/873/bitcoin-mini...
> "The new study by researchers at MIT and the Technical University of Munich suggests that Bitcoin mining was consuming 45.8 terawatt-hours of electricity per year as of November 2018.
That, in turn, produced estimated annual emissions of between 22 and 23 megatons of carbon dioxide, slotting the operations between the nations of Jordan and Sri Lanka in terms of greenhouse-gas pollution."
It creates more CO2 than entire nations. And that number most definitely has not decreased in the past two years. We may very well be up to or past 0.1% of all global CO2 emissions due solely to crypto mining, a number that will only increase as the value of bitcoin, etc increases.
What is the good that has been gained that offsets that?
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#388It's going to be AMAZING.
Lot's of very important breakthrough in moral philosophy and ethics are going to be developed.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#389Historical 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2013: none? 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011: https://news.ycomb…
Also this massive thread from a year ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278.
(Note that large threads are still paginated and you have to click More at the bottom of the page to see the rest.)
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#390* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…
> * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge It's happening https://ruffle.rs/
More something like this I guess: