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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#371

Autonomous vehicles will be unleashed in urban environments. They will kill people in unacceptable scenarios and the industry will be forced to retreat as political and legal pressure mounts. Teleoperation won’t work. Operation of autonomous vehicles in urban environments without a trained safety driver will be severely restricted until there’s a major AGI breakthrough.

>Autonomous vehicles will be unleashed in urban environments.

Thankfully, this is never going to happen in the fist place because politicians are smarter than technologists.

>Operation of autonomous vehicles in urban environments without a trained safety will be severely restricted

Again, this is never be allowed in the first place. It will remain restricted. European, Asian and African countries will make more use of autonomous public vehicles, in the form of trains, trams and busses, with a driver inside. The U.S. will get there by a different route: car pooling => minivan pooling and gradually up to private buses. This won't happen next year, or maybe not even in the next decade... but that's the future.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A Reddit competitor emerges and wins majority marketshare So many have tried and failed already. I would really wish that to happen though.

What's wrong with Reddit?

Went from being a niche community based platform to an astroturfing and advertising platform disguised as a content aggregator.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A Reddit competitor emerges and wins majority marketshare So many have tried and failed already. I would really wish that to happen though.

What's wrong with Reddit?

Mostly the way in which moderation (doesn't) work giving birth of just toxic microcommunities

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the UK was never in the eurozone, if anything it would be more affected in this scenario following Brexit. In that scenario, the UK will have no influence in the EU and not a single person in the EU will think it's important to protect Britain's political interests.

You don't think that the EC will make demands that non eurozone countries (SE, DK) participate in non-monetary aspects of bailout of the eurozone in the case of such a collapse?

You don't think they would make demands of the UK?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#375
post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

> * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge Happy New Year 2021! AnimationCPU is probably an alternative to Flash. Here is the project site https://animationcpu.com/ and Twitter with demos https://twitter.com/acpustudio Join to TestFlight!

There's also Adobe Animate, which is a rebranding of Flash that can output HTML/JS

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#376
post #176

Alphabet, Facebook and Twitter will be beat up enough from anti-trust and legislation to shake investor confidence considerably. Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will emerge unscathed. The merits of this I will leave to the reader, but there has surely been a long-lasting shift in public opinion against social media due to the unrelenting assault of Trumpism. The irony of this assault being launched from twitter.com/reald…

Swap Apple with Twitter in your list. (What sort of antitrust anything has Twitter done? Have you seen their market cap and user base?) Apple controls 50% of domestic US computing and has redefined the concept of a computer to be a highly taxed walled garden with mysterious, byzantine rules. More companies like Epic will sue them and Apple will ultimately be forced to open up iOS to 3rd party apps. Apple can't be a s…

*standard tech

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#377
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only somewhat agree. For example, Vancouver's real estate is pricey because it's one of the nicest places to live in the world. The rise of teleworking won't erase the mild weather all year round, the access to world-class mountain sports (hiking, climbing, cycling, skiing, etc.), the ocean with its views, great asian food, the rule of law, liberal culture, etc. That's a very different scenario than, say, Winnipeg…

Vancouver is a backwater town compared to many asian cities such as in tokyo. It's way overpriced.

Perhaps, but it's orders of magnitude nicer than many north american cities.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#378

1. Major earthquake on the US west coast 2. Bitcoin will hit $60K but will also touch again $5K in 2021 3. Trump will remain President 4. $VIX will hit $100

(VIX isn't a dollar value and you can't directly buy or sell it)

Options my friend

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#379
post #37

Software Bill of Material (SBOM) will become more of a thing - where you must list the dependencies and their hash you used for supply-chain security and vulnerability management. New law enforcement techniques using DNS and other Intel techniques will be used to track, seize and tax cryptocurrency - which will cause increased popularity of Ethereum. A qubit will travel around the world without decohering and increas…

> New law enforcement techniques using DNS and other Intel techniques will be used to track, seize and tax cryptocurrency - which will cause increased popularity of Ethereum. DNS? Not sure how that's relavent. And furthermore why would a crack down lead to more popularity? > A qubit will travel around the world without decohering and increase attention on quantum internet investments Well that would be good for resea…

To join many Bitcoin based peernetworks - you first contact one of the DNS seeds. Which is traceable by LEO. Ethereum has their own DNS and other security protocols which bypass this problem - which would be attractive to those who use cryptocurrency to avoid LEO.

Quantum internet is different than QKD. The best analogy I can give is its like the difference between Morse code and the internet. Things like quantum teleportation, superdense coding and distributed quantum computing through a quantum internet will be revolutionary.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#380

BABIES! So many COVID-induced lockdown babies! I've had so many people, many who were either done with having children, and those who weren't planning to for a while yet, announce their pregnancies. Wonder if there are any companies I can invest in to cash in on this?

I had my first during the first UK lockdown (ie planned before COVID). Tbh, I thought it'd go the opposite way - I wouldn't recommend having a baby during lockouts. You have to ask family to break rules just to get some occasional rest bite and we've had very little in the way of government or community support - my wife goes to 1 baby class a week, with reduced capacity, social distancing and masks. Being a father i…

`Rest bite' is a great eggcorn.
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