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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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351–360 of 456 posts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#351

BABIES! So many COVID-induced lockdown babies! I've had so many people, many who were either done with having children, and those who weren't planning to for a while yet, announce their pregnancies. Wonder if there are any companies I can invest in to cash in on this?

I would think the opposite. What's the long-term effect on births when the dating world shuts down for 6-9 months? I'm not single though, so I do wonder how much it shut down and was affected by lockdowns?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#352
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not OP, but I agree with OP. To me, BTC looks like an inefficient way to partially solve a problem that doesn’t exist — the problem of trust. It’s only a partial solution because it only deals with the money in a transaction and not the goods/services. In addition, it also exists purely by consensus and is therefore just as vulnerable to majority demands for inflation (the limit of 21 million is a choice, not a f…

You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply - something they have already been doing in 2020 at an unprecedented rate which will continue in 2021. While Bitcoin might not be the payment system some have been hoping for, it surely provides a hedge against the incoming increase in inflation rates which is why institutional investors are increasingly re…

can I trust the Winklevoss twins to not flood the market and dilute my bitcoin savings?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#353
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. I predict the exact opposite: birth rates will decline dramatically. I'm not alone in that prediction. According to this article, birth rates have already started to decline in the US: https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/11/covid-19-...

I have never heard of so many babies on the way as now. Heck, even I had a son born in November (so not technically a lockdown baby).

> even I had a son

Baader-Meinhof phenomenon got you good!

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#354
post #91
post #80

I predict that we'll see a sharp drop in real estate prices and rents in major cities. They are way beyond reasonable at the moment; my presumption is that the decline of small businesses will open up at lot of space. Given this and the radical shift to work from home, I presume that the cities will attract far less people (especially in high paid jobs) and therefore the apartment searching madness we see right now w…

I'm assuming this is from a US perspective. Do people in other places with high rents around the world feel the same?

It's a German perspective, actually ;) But I presume it's similar for the US.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#355
post #111

1. Commercial real estate nose dives, karaoke bars expand exponentially in the free space 2. Vaccines take a long time to roll out (~3 yrs) so international travel enacts mandatory screening - meaning giving your swab samples to nation states just to enter the country.. like how the US takes your fingerprint - privacy erosion gets worse to the point of mass protests but won’t be fixed for decades 3. Routine dr appoin…

How about: Rust has its "left-pad" moment?

Depending on exactly what you mean by "left-pad," this may be structurally impossible.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#356
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not OP, but I agree with OP. To me, BTC looks like an inefficient way to partially solve a problem that doesn’t exist — the problem of trust. It’s only a partial solution because it only deals with the money in a transaction and not the goods/services. In addition, it also exists purely by consensus and is therefore just as vulnerable to majority demands for inflation (the limit of 21 million is a choice, not a f…

You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply - something they have already been doing in 2020 at an unprecedented rate which will continue in 2021. While Bitcoin might not be the payment system some have been hoping for, it surely provides a hedge against the incoming increase in inflation rates which is why institutional investors are increasingly re…

> You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply

I expect the government to do so, and I also expect that it will usually be done in a controlled fashion and for broader economic benefit. Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever), this will be done by people not too familiar with hyperinflation.

I’m also hedging against inflation with property, although I could also hedge against it with shares or precious metals.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#357
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thought that WeWork will ever recover is comical. I’d be surprised if they are alive by summer.

Let me clarify that a bit--their concept has better real business prospects than ever. I'm not commenting on their ability to match their over-promises, their leadership, capital structure, or their misalignment to their valuation. I suppose their ability to stay alive is apart of their prospects, though.

Yea, I agree with the appeal of co-working spaces in general, and do expect them to see an uptick. However, WeWork's model is simply atrocious from a business standpoint. They assume all of the risk and liability by being the leasee in most cases.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think eurozone collapse will begin in germany, centered around the collapse of deutsche bank. No other scenario will make sense. Although it will still be bad, the uk will have dodged a bigger bullet with brexit.

Since the UK was never in the eurozone, if anything it would be more affected in this scenario following Brexit. In that scenario, the UK will have no influence in the EU and not a single person in the EU will think it's important to protect Britain's political interests.

You don't think that the EC will make demands that non eurozone countries (SE, DK) participate in non-monetary aspects of bailout of the eurozone in the case of such a collapse?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#360
post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

> 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021

I don't see why the Treasury and Mint would start making more paper money and coins.

It really bugs me when people incorrectly talk about the money supply as 'currency'. Currency is printed by the US Mint/Treasury. Money appears out of thin air when banks make loans.

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