My prediction: most of the predictions will be wrong.
Thank you for relieving the secrets of prediction making!
Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
271–280 of 456 posts
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#272* Baizuo gestapo * The DJ mix fades slowly from Covid to climatechange * Bill Gates does geoengineering * Trillions of dollars printed -> effect -> bitcoin to the moon * People will say that internet in 2020 had freedom * Migration of taxpayers to other countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baizuo
> Baizuo (/ˈbaɪˌdzwɔː/; Chinese: 白左; pinyin: báizuǒ, literally White Left)[1][2] is a Chinese neologism and political epithet used to refer to Western leftist ideologies primarily espoused by white people.[3] The term baizuo is related to the term shèngmǔ (圣母, 聖母, literally "Blessed Mother"), a sarcastic reference to those whose political opinions are perceived as being guided by emotions or a hypocritical show of selflessness and empathy.[4]
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Boris’ stock is pretty high right now, he’s just lead the country through COVID and got the brexit deal he wanted at the same time. Whether you like him or not that was no easy feat, it’s unlikely he would have any reason to resign unless something crazy happens in the next 12 months. The affects of brexit won’t be felt just yet, and I don’t see his party pushing him out unless they’ve found a reasonable successor.
That's a neat alternative universe that you're in. COVID is a complete disaster in the UK (and in plenty of other places, but the clusterfuck in the UK is really quite something), besides that brexit could very well cause the UK to cease to exist or be diminished, you can expect a breakaway effort to start in Scotland just about today. Imagine the irony of the UK more or less trying to forbid the Scots from seceding…
I’m not saying the COVID situation went well by any stretch, but I haven’t spoken to anyone on the street who wants Boris out of office due to it. If a general election happened tomorrow I doubt he would have problems. It’s pretty clear most countries have struggled to handle it so that’s probably why Boris hasn’t had as much flack as expected.
Like I said, it’s unlikely that would be the reason he resigns, if that was the case he would have gone already.
Brexit will cause issues, but I don’t think many of them will happen in the next 12 months. The UK won’t “cease to exist” with the next few months let’s not be alarmist. (And I’m the one in an alternative universe?).
It’s more likely that Scotland will continue to ask for a referendum and Boris will continue to deny it.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#274* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…
* FB releases a thin virtual reality headset
Currently being tested in Seattle! Had a conversation tonight about it. I hear there’s a ray-ban branding partnership. And the product is supposed to be way less creepy than google glass, but similar.
Can’t recall if this was spoken to me in confidence. Alcohol. Happy New Years!
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#275Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses and greatly increase inequality as the richest 10% stay at home saving/investing instead of spending. This will trigger an economic collapse which will bring down the eurozone. Germany will want country rated euros to avoid having to bail Italy. House prices in Europe will drop to a rent / value rate similar to the USA, as property owners scrap for money…
I think eurozone collapse will begin in germany, centered around the collapse of deutsche bank. No other scenario will make sense. Although it will still be bad, the uk will have dodged a bigger bullet with brexit.
Since the UK was never in the eurozone, if anything it would be more affected in this scenario following Brexit.
In that scenario, the UK will have no influence in the EU and not a single person in the EU will think it's important to protect Britain's political interests.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#276By the end of the year, we'll have started a new roaring 20's. People are pent-up--eager to travel, excited to be with friends, vacation, go to bars, party, see movies. Pent-up demand will help kick-start the economy. Work from home is normalized. Commercial real estate prices will drop as companies pare-down their office space. Wework has better prospects than ever. Travel stocks and in person events go crazy. A ren…
You are probably overly optimistic about Rails, I wish it could be true.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#277* It will be widely acknowledged that non-pharmaceutical interventions had little effect on the spread of COVID-19, with geographic and demographic factors the principal determinant of countries' death totals. Deaths indirectly caused by lockdowns will exceed deaths attributed to COVID. * Large companies will roll back generous WFH arrangements, claiming that it really is "better for your career" to be in the office.…
The first point is already demonstrably false. Similar countries right next to each other have different death tolls in the order of multiples (Sweden vs. other Nordics).
Also, similar geographic and demographic countries have performed vastly different in different parts of the of world (eg. South Korea or Japan vs. UK in order of magnitude)
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#278* EU-based SaaS will become more popular due increased difficulty in working with US-based SaaS companies in a privacy compliant way * Remote work will stay mainstream in tech, with most employees working at least a few days remote per month * HN will get a dark mode
>> HN will get a dark mode
Maybe in 2022 ;)
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#279With the maturing of the Holochain framework (a novel data integrity engine for fully distributed applications [1]), Valueflows/hREA and Holochain apps will start taking off.
My hope is that this will rewire our society in two significant ways:
1) Through hREA and REA accounting in general, we will start having better wealth acknowledgement systems and a new grammar for different types of wealth [2],[3].
2) No more exclusive Intellectual Property rights (trade secrets and patents) that privatize and monopolize knowledge and ideas, the use of which currently comes at the expense of mother nature and society [4]. Our accumulated human knowledge is a shared inheritance, and it belongs to all children of the world, in the commons.
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[1] "Holochain is a framework for writing fully distributed peer-to-peer applications. It is not based on blockchain technology. It is rather like a decentralized Ruby on Rails, a toolkit that produces stand-alone programs but for serverless high-profile applications."
This Medium post by a Holochain core developer is a great intro: https://medium.com/holochain/holochain-reinventing-applicati...
[2] http://mikorizal.org/Fromprivateownershipaccountingtocommons...
[3] https://eric.harris-braun.com/blog/2007/11/05/id-55
[4] Wendy Liu, https://tribunemag.co.uk/2019/01/abolish-silicon-valley
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?
#280- Niche social networks will thrive, innovating beyond infinite scrolling and Stories.
- Travel will boom towards the second half of the year, with people spending more on vacation/leisure and more “active” travel (e.g. luxurious hiking/camping trips).
- Protests and social upheaval once countries reach herd immunity via vaccination.
- People will spend more time looking at screens and socialize less.