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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#241

Post by sudhirj »

austinjp wrote: post #214
Dirak wrote: post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

> React competitor that compiles to WASM Those who are better informed than me, who are the main movers here?

Flutter, probably, with the added benefit of the same code base (including UI) working on iOS and Android.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#242

Post by fendy3002 »

domano wrote: post #237
fendy3002 wrote: post #233

* more countries will attempt fascism or authoritarian type of government * more countries will have problem with clean water. Hopefully new technologies to make water purification easier or cheaper emerge * given fall guys and among us success stories, there will be many more games aimed at that gameplay. Likely one or two of those will boom * non code programming (drag drop, or similar to) will rise. Used to comple…

I doubt that google will oppose PWA since they are the main force pushing it.

Oh right, it's more that google will regulate PWA's to follow mobile's behavior, such as tracking, ads, etc, to more enrich play store apps.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#243

Post by domano »

* Bitcoin will rise up until the point where vaccinations are widespread and then rapidly decline. Same goes for inflated tech stock prices.

* There will be dev layoffs in areas where low/nocode handles most work, especially internal tooling and APIs for corps.

* Intel will give up on manufacturing and catch up to AMD (maybe towards the end of the year or the one after). Until then stocks will plummet.

* Most big game companies will be bought by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, maybe Apple, maybe Sony. Microsoft Gamepass will get them into a leading position (but wont beat Sony in 1 years time, more like 3 or 4)

* Environmental catastrophes will become commonplace, including massive refugee crises due to water shortages, heat waves and other hazards.

* There will be 1 more economical crisis before it gets better, maybe after covid when people realize that it won't get back to pre-covid levels as fast as they hoped.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#244

Post by jacquesm »

jayflux wrote: post #219
dt123 wrote: post #204

* Jeff Bezos will be the first person to surpass US$1Tn in net worth * Boris Johnson will resign * Tiktok becomes the most popular social media platform * Japan Olympics go ahead causing hundreds of deaths * Covid eventually fizzles out

Boris’ stock is pretty high right now, he’s just lead the country through COVID and got the brexit deal he wanted at the same time. Whether you like him or not that was no easy feat, it’s unlikely he would have any reason to resign unless something crazy happens in the next 12 months. The affects of brexit won’t be felt just yet, and I don’t see his party pushing him out unless they’ve found a reasonable successor.

That's a neat alternative universe that you're in. COVID is a complete disaster in the UK (and in plenty of other places, but the clusterfuck in the UK is really quite something), besides that brexit could very well cause the UK to cease to exist or be diminished, you can expect a breakaway effort to start in Scotland just about today.

Imagine the irony of the UK more or less trying to forbid the Scots from seceding the union when they just seceded themselves from the EU. That won't go down well, no matter what legalese the argument will be cast into.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#245

Post by sudhirj »

The economy will bifurcate into two sections: a corporate economy that builds platforms, and an individualist economy that uses those platform for creative purposes.

Think YouTube + video creators, Spotify + artists, Netflix + more long tail video content, Substack + writers, TikTok + influencers, Doordash + indie chefs, Apple + indie developers.

I believe this will feel like visible people are losing jobs and making less money, but humanity as a whole will see wealth increase.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#246

Post by emmanueloga_ »

It is 2021 and ... I can't believe we are still using raw plaintext for these kind of threads. Wouldn't it be wonderful:

* To be able to vote predictions

* To filter, sort, search, group, slice and dice predictions

Same goes for HN:Jobs and other threads like that. We need just a bit more structure.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#247

Post by abricot »

emmanueloga_ wrote: post #246

It is 2021 and ... I can't believe we are still using raw plaintext for these kind of threads. Wouldn't it be wonderful: * To be able to vote predictions * To filter, sort, search, group, slice and dice predictions Same goes for HN:Jobs and other threads like that. We need just a bit more structure.

Lots of places exist for that. HN don't need to do it.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#249

Post by colinmhayes »

adventured wrote: post #122
onion2k wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

inflation will start being a problem If that happens then interest rates will rise, which will be very, very bad for both businesses and home owners. If it happened quickly enough it'd make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

The US isn't going to start facing meaningful consumer inflation for the exact same reason Japan didn't / hasn't. And for the same reason all the Keynesian economists have been hilariously baffled by Japan's situation for decades now, they'll be entirely baffled (and have been for the past decade) by the US and its 0% rates not spurring rampant inflation. Their dogmatic, borderline religious, belief in their wrong id…

Keynes invented the idea of liquidity traps which is what caused the Japanese crisis. Wild that you feel so confident calling economists idiots when you don't even know their positions?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#250

Post by 0xy »

* Cloudflare ($NET) stock up 75% from current value to $133 or greater.

* AMD makes an even larger dent in the consumer market, enterprise starts to ramp adoption.

* Apple will reach a $3T market cap.

* Google and Facebook will be largely unscathed by regulatory pressure. No major break-ups.

* TikTok implements more social features such as messaging, to take on Snapchat and Instagram.

* A breach larger than Solarwinds will occur, impacting multiple governments and large businesses worldwide.

Controversial:

* President Joe Biden reveals a serious illness known to affect mental state.

* One or more coronavirus vaccines are found to have serious side effects, including death.

* Tesla market cap will halve to $334B or less.

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