The author is Ray Dillinger, who has an axe to grind, having been involved with BTC since early days, and losing out hugely.
> losing out hugely
Would like to learn more about this. Thanks.
Bitcoin is a disaster
421–430 of 992 posts
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#422Bitcoin's value prop isn't in its anonymity. Early adopters weren't enthusiastic about bitcoin because they hoped it would end fractional reserve banking or any other financial product. Rather, it was incredible to see the entire financial industry quickly rebuilt on top of sound money. I agree that small transactions and mining can be (and are being) improved, but not for the same reasons. It's silly to blame bitcoi…
> Early adopters weren't enthusiastic about bitcoin because they hoped it would end fractional reserve banking
Just to amplify your point: There is a weird idea that that monetary multiplication (like fractional-reserve banking) is not possible with bitcoin. However, anytime someone lends bitcoin or shorts it on an exchange, they increase the bitcoin in circulation past the base count of 21 million btc (or however many have been minted at the time).
The idea that bitcoin would somehow escape fractional-reserve banking was only held by people who do not understand the difference between M0 and M1/M2 in elementary macroeconomics.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#423Earlier quoted context omitted.
Getting most people to agree to such a fork is likely impossible
It has happened before. Ethereum Classic is the "original" version of Ethereum, but it's a nondescript altcoin, while the one that reversed transactions is the number #2 in the world. I don't see why that can't happen to Bitcoin if the network participants (ideally normal users but practically the miners) and major stakeholders can benefit from it.
They won't benefit because that will tank the price like nothing else.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#424Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's volatile, but the overwhelming trend has been upwards. Historically it's a great investment if you can weather volatility
So is roulette if you win. A "good investment" in many contexts has a 20 year lifespan and low risk profile, so TBD. I'm not saying its bad, but its an extremely high risk investment so not suitable for the money you can't afford to lose. I've heard of many people withdrawing superannuation to put into crypto (or using credit) for example.
I really dislike the way the finance industry has been conflating two notions that - while related - are actually different: that of volatility and that of risk.
Volatility results from the fact that the markets have a very hard time pricing an asset (because the asset's properties are hard to understand and its future behavior is therefor hard to predict).
This results in the creation of noise on the price signal.
It does not mean the asset is inherently bad. It just reflects lack of knowledge.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#425Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do any simple technical analysis and you will find an upward trend over its existence. You don't look at a narrow window.
Technical analysis has continually been shown to not work in predicting future prices.
While HN pundits have clearly been much more successful at it.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#426Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bitcoin never dropped below its previous peak. You have to cherry-pick narrow enough time period to see bitcoin dropping in price. If you pick sufficiently large time period bitcoin always grows. This screms 'investment'.
So did Enron
Except that bitcoin books are open and they don't describe the thing, they are the thing.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#427Most of the criticisms in this thread seem to be missing that Bitcoin is only layer 1. Bitcoin isn't Visa or cash - its gold. Rather than shipping gold across the Atlantic, large institutions will settle in a few minutes in Bitcoin. L2/L3/L4 solutions (built into Apple Pay, etc.) will allow for instant payments for coffee, allow for privacy similar to physical cash, etc. Before this is possible, the price has to stab…
It's been 12 years.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#428Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you don't live in the US, then it becomes difficult to prove state residency as they want things like pay stubs, cellphone bills, and rent payments. Or you need to find someone who can prove residency and then claim (lie) that you reside (domicile) with them. I don't have any of that. But maybe you can appreciate that I don't want to have to jump through those hoops just to be able to send someone $100 digitally.
> But maybe you can appreciate that I don't want to have to jump through those hoops just to be able to send someone $100 digitally. Surely you store fiat currency somewhere, and isn't there a "transfer money" button where you plug in an account number and institution and the money arrives shortly after?
for almost 1/4 of the population of the US that isn't actually true.
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#429I bought my smartphone from Hong Kong, in part because I wanted a specific variant that would be more likely to work with open-source ROM's. The seller initially requested payment via Transferwise, who sought crazy amounts of personal information and bullied me into a privacy-hostile customer agreement. Days went by and they still hadn't activated my account. Growing frustrated, I convinced the seller to accept Bitco…
Can we have "cash you can email" that doesn't consume as much electricity as several nation states combined?
Re: Bitcoin is a disaster
#430[flagged]
The trollish Bitcoiner answer to every criticism: "you just jelly of my internet money".
The difficulty in criticizing Bitcoin and what it could have been is that everyone willing to engage you on it is quite literally invested in being right.
Zealots betting the house can't afford to be wrong because it would often make them bankrupt.