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The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

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Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#41

Post by mybandisbetter »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

It is at least possible that a manufacturing ecosystem would be so difficult to develop that it would require fewer decades to transport products than to develop that ecosystem.

Such comparative advantage would likely disappear overtime, unless a given solar system actively keeps its technological know-how secret in some way, or controls the travel of skilled people (as in nuclear tech today). Or, perhaps, some solar systems may fail to create the institutional context necessary for building such a system — if, for example, they keep nuking themselves. In any case, it's not too hard to imagine scenarios in which such trade would be necessary.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#42

Post by QuesnayJr »

forgingahead wrote: post #30
koheripbal wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Wait until we have Galactic Economics and other voodoo fields of study* , and beings start being convinced of "specialisation" on a cosmic scale. *Not unlike it's current-day counterpart, Macroeconomics.

The paper is a thought experiment, written in a somewhat whimsical tone.

In certain respects, macroeconomics is wildly successful, so successful that people take it for granted. It's bad at forecasting recessions, but good at telling us how to react to them. It was bad at predicting 2008 would happen, but was good at preventing 2008 in turning into 1929. There's no way macroeconomics could predict COVID would happen in 2020, but aggressive fiscal and monetary policy kept the economy from being completely wrecked by the pandemic.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#43

Post by jmcqk6 »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Why are Stradivarius violins held in such high regard?

The presence of natural resources is not the same as having the craftmanship able to best utilize them.

And when scarcity of resources are not a problem, craftsmanship becomes even more important to people.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#44

Post by ldite »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

one-time pads

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#45

Post by microtherion »

jointpdf wrote: post #12
cdogl wrote: post #10

Cool paper. I dig the premise. But this passage from the introduction left an eyebrow raised: > [Recent progress raises] the distinct possibility that we may eventually discover or construct a world to which orthodox economic theory applies. This really strains credulity for me. Whatever you think of various heterodox economic theories, their objections tend to come boil to some combination of: class analysis; "human…

Krugman was being sardonic here, along the lines of “assume a spherical cow”. The whole introduction is dripping with sarcasm. The paper was partially intended as a satire.

I think the entire paper was intended as satire, even though the math applied is serious.

Another joke: “Among the authors who have not pointed this out are…”

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#46

Post by cgriswald »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Raw materials. Not every system will have convenient lumps of rock and metals spinning in orbit around the star. Among those that do, the presence of an asteroid belt may make those systems relatively rich since there is more material on the surface, easily accessible.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#47

Post by paulpauper »

who would have guessed that a paper he wrote as a joke would turn out to be one of his most important and influential. I have seen this paper cited and referenced online more than his serious papers. It shows the value of side projects and divergent thinking. Twitter began as a side project too.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#48

Post by adrianN »

cgriswald wrote: post #46
koheripbal wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

Raw materials. Not every system will have convenient lumps of rock and metals spinning in orbit around the star. Among those that do, the presence of an asteroid belt may make those systems relatively rich since there is more material on the surface, easily accessible.

Why would you want to settle a system that doesn't have all the stuff available you need? Moving nontrivial amounts of mass around the universe is extremely expensive.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#49

Post by hindsightbias »

koheripbal wrote: post #14
messe wrote: post #2

Abstract: > This paper extends interplanetary trade to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: How should interest on goods in tranist be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer travelling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theo…

I'm trying to imagine a physical product that is worth transporting on an interstellar level, rather than locally manufactured. It seems to me that the only thing that would ever be exchanged between solar systems, would be information.

All the stuff to make the factory that makes factories. After that, maybe just information.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978)

#50

Post by nabla9 »

mmhsieh wrote: post #33

I realize that Krugman was being tongue in cheek in this work, but a lot of the work in theory-heavy areas of "mathematical" economics are similar exercises in obscurity and dubious scientific value. Krugman, in one of his autobiographical essays, described economics as the field that people get into when they can't hack it in math, physics or some other high-rigor STEM field. Part of proving one's intelligence as a…

Maybe you refer to this: How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.htm...

Soon Krugman wrote another piece because people misunderstood what he said: Mathematics and economics https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/mathematics-and...

>I’ve been getting some comments from people who think my magazine piece was an attack on the use of mathematics in economics. It wasn’t. ... What I objected to in the mag article was the tendency to identify good math with good work.

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