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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#311

Post by [deleted] »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #119
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Entertaining the question is dangerous (I don’t believe it, but for the sake of argument)... My next question would be “why”? What would be the CCP’s motives to study and modify the virus? Is it to test whether different changes would make the virus more/less communicable? Is it to prevent another MERS SARS? Is it to tailor disease for certain ethnicities? CCP doesn’t appear to have qualms about getting rid of troubl…

[deleted]

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#312

Post by alphabettsy »

upbeat_general wrote: post #175
alphabettsy wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using this logic isn’t it likely it came from the US? Simultaneously saying it’s nothing and China did it seems suspicious.

The US response was shit but A) we have a timeline of events so we know it came from China B) the US didn’t cover things up, rather some politicians (trump for one) massively downplayed the virus.

To be clear I’m just playing devils advocate, but how can we be certain the virus originated in Wuhan? There's quite possibly information I'm not aware of that refutes this, but isn’t it equally likely that it was first discovered there and it originated somewhere else given the number of asymptomatic cases?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#313

Post by ilaksh »

edmundsauto wrote: post #298
ilaksh wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to go ahead and be the "crazy" person in this thread. In my "bat-shit insane" worldview, wars (including recent ones such as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya) are fought for power and control over resources and global policies. They are not fought for the reasons given such as deposing dictators because they are dictators. So in this "insane" worldview, the activities of some states take on a less altruistic…

I don't think it's particularly brave to admit there is a chance this came from a lab. I want to see evidence before I change my prior, and it's a very small chance, but I suspect if people framed it in terms of probabilities, we would find more agreement. However, labeling the perspectives in heroic terms does a disservice to your ability to more accurately predict the future. Most people with crazy theories end up…

I didn't say it was brave or heroic to suggest it came from a lab.

But in many social groups such as HN you do have to be kind of brave to suggest it might have been a bioweapon. People who say things like that are often ostracized in many places online. Or at the very least you get called a crackpot.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#314

Post by [deleted] »

bearbin wrote: post #79
addicted wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there is no strong evidence. Strong claims require strong evidence.

But this (escape from a vial in a lab) isn't a strong claim, or at least no stronger than the alternative (the virus escaped from bat in a a wet-market)- why is there no outcry against the wet market hypothesis?

[deleted]

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#315

Post by jokoon »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

A lab virus might have been designed to be hard to vaccinate.

I'm not a virologist, but the stories about reinfection are weird too.

I don't believe in those theories, I just think "what if?".

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#316

Post by mytailorisrich »

rcpt wrote: post #139
mytailorisrich wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the virus that has probably received the most attention by the largest number of global experts in history, or close to. If there was anything that showed it was in any way artificial it would have been detected by all mainstream experts by now and that information would have been publicised one way or another. Yet these claims and 'evidence' are only reported as coming from fringe people if not likely paid '…

There are experts discussing this https://www.pnas.org/content/117/47/29246

Wild conjectures with no shred of evidence is not 'discussing'... It has no place in a scientific journal and is pub talk at best or, worse, FUD.

It is perfectly possible and sensible to state that finding the origin of this virus is important, like it is important for all new viral diseases, without engaging in conjectures, especially wild ones.

Judging by the comments on HN many people (even more educated than average) are not able the see through this, are not able to distinguish facts from fiction and baseless conjectures. FUD works and is dangerous.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#317

Post by mytailorisrich »

rawgabbit wrote: post #281
defen wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The govt still funds crackpots to argue against Chinese people originating in africa, to call greco-roman and egyptian history faked, and don't even get me started on their insistence on 5k years Wait what? The Chinese government does this? Who do they claim faked Greco-Roman and Egyptian history, and to what end? And what is 5k years supposed to be? The age of the earth or something?

Chinese propaganda claims 5000 years of unbroken history. One Han people. One language etc. They conveniently ignore when China was ruled by ethnic Khitan-Jurchen-Manchus. The Chinese literary classic On the Water Margin aka All Men Are Brothers is about local heroes of the Song rising up against a corrupt government which was completely ineffective against the Liao.

This is BS. They perfectly acknowledge that some imperial dynasties were not Han and have no problem with it. These 'foreign' dynasties adopted Han culture. Certainly, Chinese culture did not turn Mongol when the Emperor was an ethnic Mongol.

Please don't spread nonsense.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#318

Post by DoingIsLearning »

bamboleo wrote: post #245
DoingIsLearning wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The official position is that the start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan. [0] So are you proposing that a pangolin from Lancang was transported more than 2000km to a seafood wetmarket in Wuhan? At face value, this sounds like a very unlikely scenario for a zoonotic event/origin. [0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/04/coronavir...

Given that apparently the virus was outside China in early December already, is it possible that Wuhan was simply the first fast-spreading location rather than the place where the transmission happened? If the virus was in Milan’s sewers in December, it feels that it might as swell have started spreading there first. Likewise, Italy contained the virus from May to September, then it exploded again. Nothing particular…

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan.

Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way?

If I am to put on my tinfoil hat this is exactly the sort of disinformation I would expect from CCP propaganda in order to fight US politician memes of the "China Virus".

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#319

Post by SftwreEngnr »

sargun wrote: post #102

Unfortunately, I do not have the chops to debate against this, but the political ramifications would be immense. The bet ( https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge ) requires that (a) you have $100k (b) are able to successfully debate it. I won't put $100k against this, but I'll put $10k against it, because "the truth" is worth it. I'll pool $10k into a $100k stake behind a debate team that can debate this (and…

I dislike you.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#320

Post by joaomacp »

Many people are asking for the truth to come out, for China to be cooperative on investigations, etc. I would say "be careful what you wish for".

Imagine it did come out that it was an accidental lab-leak. Public opinion around the world would be super critical of China. The US would have to step in, demand certain investigations and lab inspections from China, who would of course disagree. This could very well be World War 3 brewing. Sometimes it's better for these things to stay silent.

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