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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#61

Post by meowface »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #56
delbarital wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From their Twitter account: "Probably our most surprising finding to date: COVID-19 has likely originated in a lab. A probabilistic analysis shows the proximity to a major coronavirus lab and anomalies in the genetic code are too unlikely for SARS-CoV-2 to have developed naturally. " https://twitter.com/Rootclaim/status/1343207878325383168

The problem here is that "anomalies in the genetic code" is, I believe, their claim, not fact, but presented as a fact along with established facts, which may be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to spread essentially 'fake news'.

I disagree, I don't think it's presented as a fact. They have a detailed analysis on the page. Click the "More" links under the "Chimera" and "Furin cleavage" topics.

No idea how credible that analysis is, but it seems to me like it's done in good faith.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#62

Post by mytailorisrich »

jMyles wrote: post #10

Oh 2020. It's a crazy thing to say out loud (or even to type), but there is substantial doubt about the origin story of this virus in mainstream scientific circles. The National Academy of Sciences published an opinion piece from a reputable scientist containing fairly strongly worded (for PNAS, anyway) conjecture regarding a possible laboratory origin of SARS-CoV-2. [0] (you might recognize Relman's name from his wo…

These sorts of conjectures of what might be possible are exactly on the same level as me writing that it is possible that the virus could have been developed in an American lab and planted in Wuhan as part of a CIA plot.

The realm of what is 'possible' is extremely large. This is exactly a reason why serious people without an agenda tend not to play this conjecture game and stick to evidence-based facts.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#63

Post by meowface »

dash2 wrote: post #51

I want to appeal the flag! This discussion is interesting, and there are relatively few loons.

Agreed; even outside of the COVID-19 topic, I'm a big fan of this style of clear Bayesian arguing and think a lot of HN users would be interested in it. I have no idea how strong the actual analysis is, here, but the format is refreshing.

I wish all arguments about everything ever had a page like this; ideally with Wiki-style features like forks and suggested edits or something like that. At the moment I think they just rely on comments rather than something like a Wiki, but the overall model seems really appealing.

And, also, with respect to the COVID-19 topic, here people can actually argue about explicit and delineated claims rather than jumping into politics, which I think is way more interesting and productive. If I were dang (and I know I'm very much not) I'd keep the thread open but enforce a strict rule that all comments should be directly related to this page and not derail into the usual heat and noise.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#64

Post by dang »

fsflover wrote: post #53
dash2 wrote: post #51

I want to appeal the flag! This discussion is interesting, and there are relatively few loons.

Same here, but the vouch option is just not there fore some reason. Strange.

It only appears when a submission is [dead].

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#66

Post by mytailorisrich »

meowface wrote: post #61
mytailorisrich wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is that "anomalies in the genetic code" is, I believe, their claim, not fact, but presented as a fact along with established facts, which may be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to spread essentially 'fake news'.

I disagree, I don't think it's presented as a fact. They have a detailed analysis on the page. Click the "More" links under the "Chimera" and "Furin cleavage" topics. No idea how credible that analysis is, but it seems to me like it's done in good faith.

That tweet is as misleading as possible and does present it as fact.

At best this is a startup company seeking publicity so 'good faith' is to be taken with more than a grain of salt.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#67

Post by addicted »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Because there is no strong evidence. Strong claims require strong evidence.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#68

Post by cs02rm0 »

delbarital wrote: post #40
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

The liability of China is the main question here. If it was released from a lab (and I don't think it was), China is liable to this world pandemic which is a huge thing.

Liability is the first point, but it's swiftly followed by what are they going to do next and how do we defend against it.

This is a whole other ball game if it's malice/incompetence.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#70

Post by dang »

stanrivers wrote: post #12

For what it is worth, they say there is an 81% probability, based on their analysis, that it was a lab leak. That is not the same thing as "claims COVID-19 originated in a lab" - so I think the title is a little misleading - which is probably why the title actually seems to be "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?"

Ok, I've squeezed "likely" into the title above.
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