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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#41

Post by dash2 »

yabones wrote: post #13

I don't see any _new information_ here, it's all stuff we've known for months. To me, this is just a conspiracy theory wrapped up with 'probability charts'. Unless I'm missing something, is there any non-circumstantial evidence that this is true? All I've seen for the past year(!) is "it's not a coincidence that these two things happened in the same place" - which isn't science.

I disagree that "it's not a coincidence that these two things happened in the same place" isn't science. It's a valid argument. In fact it's not unlike a p value. The null hypothesis is "covid came from animals". Under the null, the probability of getting this lab is very low - since there are many large cities in Asia. (The article has more details about e.g. the distance of Wuhan from wild bat populations.) I don't say that the argument is enough to be persuasive on its own.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#42

Post by knowhy »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

I believe it is because a lab origin would mean that we, humans, are not just the subject of the arbitrariness of nature. The virus exemplifies that we do not have control over everything. And that is a truth which is hard to accept.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#43

Post by [deleted] »

cassianoleal wrote: post #27
delbarital wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From their Twitter account: "Probably our most surprising finding to date: COVID-19 has likely originated in a lab. A probabilistic analysis shows the proximity to a major coronavirus lab and anomalies in the genetic code are too unlikely for SARS-CoV-2 to have developed naturally. " https://twitter.com/Rootclaim/status/1343207878325383168

Which is a lot more acurate than the title of this posting. The posting says the startup "claims COVID-19 originated in a lab", whereas the Twitter post says it "has likely originated in a lab." There's an important distinction between fact and likelihood of fact.

[deleted]

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#44

Post by ketamine__ »

gandutraveler wrote: post #39

Likelihood of covid originating from lab has always been 50-50, due to the fact that China has not allowed any impartial outside investigation on this. They even imposed trade restrictions on countries like Australia that demanded. What's sad is we may never know.

That is what is behind it? I thought the cause was something less childish.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#45

Post by major505 »

dboreham wrote: post #16
benjohnson wrote: post #8

The Chinese sure acted like it was a possibility that it came from their own lab - their initial reaction was to downplay and cover up.

No other government downplayed and covered up?

Brazil didn't covered up, but it sure downplayed. Actually is still in the downplay process.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#46

Post by dash2 »

pengaru wrote: post #6

They're probably receiving >$100k worth of attention by making this claim so... I'd like to see more zeroes in the wager.

Yeah, the problem with this startup is that the high-minded Bayesianism of their model is going to run up against the crass incentive to make exciting, media-friendly claims. Their track record doesn't seem that rigorous either, they just list a few (like 5) cases where evidence has later supported them: https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#47

Post by DevKoala »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Because it would make China liable, and for the majority of individuals, their stance on China as a good actor in global matters is now linked to their American political allegiance. It is hard for many folks to reconcile both.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#49

Post by dash2 »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

It would have vast consequences if this came from a lab. It would be the most deadly example of "science gone wrong" ever: 1.8 million deaths, comparable to the Holocaust, from a single disaster in a single lab. We would seriously have to rethink how we did virus biology. And probably there would be repercussions throughout the whole of science. We might e.g. start to worry much more about the risks of many kinds of scientific experimentation.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#50

Post by [deleted] »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

[deleted]
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