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We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

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Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#181

Post by mlyle »

tehjoker wrote: post #172
mlyle wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wargame the scenarios. You wouldn't want to give one dose on purpose, but reserving a whole bunch of doses to prevent some people from getting only 1 in a worst case scenario is silly. That 20-70% efficacy number includes the entire period between dose 1 and 2. It looks way better 10 days after dose 1, btw-- MLE around 80%. e.g. single dose -- 50% efficacy (to be pessimistic); double dose -- 95% efficacy. 10M doses "…

I wonder if hitting the delivery targets of 20M per month is going to be achieved. That's the first bottleneck before the vaccine supply.

Right now, many jurisdictions are supply limited, and most look like they're ramping enough to be supply limited, though still a bit more slowly than I'd like.

Lowering reserves would still increase administration rate immediately (though not proportionally). Actually, we might even enter phase 1B in some areas and have a mostly parallel administration system start to come up...

It's unclear to me how much of the slowness so far in administration (13.5% of doses allotted are reported as administered so far)... is A) (fixed?) delays in reporting, B) (fixed?) delays in logistics getting doses to administration sites, C) limitations on rate of administration, D) holiday-related slowness. Only C really matters in the long term-- if it is ramping poorly compared to production than that's a problem. But I think it's premature to assume C is limiting when A, B, & D are surely large right now.

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#182

Post by edanm »

jamra wrote: post #95
inglor_cz wrote: post #8

Israelis give shots to medical workers and oldest citizens first. This should drive down the death rate pretty fast. If this approach works, Covid-related deaths in Israel should visibly drop by the end of January.

I just spoke with some people in Israel. None of whom are healthcare workers. They all got the first shot of the vaccine. ~4 people.

Were they older citizens?

Israel has opened up vaccinations for healthcare workers and anyone above the age of 60.

There are a few other groups getting vaccinations as well - I don't know all of them, but I know of some people working in nursing homes or other similar jobs.

In addition, there are people hanging around the vaccine administration centers at the end of their workday, and hoping that they have leftover vaccinations that would otherwise expire. Apparently, some people who otherwise wouldn't get vaccinated are able to get the vaccine that way.

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#183

Post by Guereric »

rkagerer wrote: post #72

So what happens if the second dose arrives very (eg. many months) late? Can you start again and give 3? And is there any chance all the partial immunities will catalyze resistant mutations?

I got the Pfizer vaccine in Alberta, Canada. Our vaccine FAQ says that getting the second injection 21d to 28d after the first is recommended. Up to 3 months after is allowed, but not advised. For delays longer than 3 months, the person simply won't get the second dose.

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#185

Post by guenthert »

aquadrop wrote: post #166
choeger wrote: post #152

Berlin today closed it's sole vaccination center. Allegedly because of a lack of interest by the target audience. So we now reserve all doses, not just the second one. Total organizational fubar.

That's hard to believe in multi million city there was not enough people to fill on one center. Maybe there was something other preventing people from going there? Do you have source?

I found it hard to believe as well, but found [1]. Not living there at this time, I lack a sense of current sentiment, but it's my understanding that so far only medical personal is being vaccinated. Allegedly there was a lack of interest of being vaccinated right now (it's Christmas season and many are on holiday there I think). That'll change in a few days.

[1] https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zu-wenig-rueckmeldung-zu-...

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#186

Post by guenthert »

cperciva wrote: post #75
myth_drannon wrote: post #54

Canada is the slowest among G7. vaccines administered per 100 people: • Canada at 0.14 • United States at 0.59 • United Kingdom at 1.18 • Bahrain at 3.23 • Israel at 4.37

You know that the G7 also includes France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, right? Which are all below Canada's vaccination level so far.

That and I'd think vaccination rates depends not only on how easy a country's population can afford such, but also, and perhaps more so, the level of anxiety (both, fear of severe COVID-19 as well as side effects of vaccine).

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#187

Post by thebruce87m »

helge9210 wrote: post #115
wbl wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you look at the death rate this year? We are on track for 10٪ excess deaths, most of those with at least a decade of life expectancy. The clinical trial for the vaccine was not going to see this with only a few hundred observed cases. That's only a handful of deaths.

Do you account for people who died from psychological effects of lockdown and job loss, and from not requesting medical assistance for other conditions because of fear of covid-19?

Countries like Norway show no significant excess mortality for the year despite lockdowns.

Suicides also seem unaffected in the UK: https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=...

Happy to see evidence otherwise.

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#188

Post by xkbarkar »

iso1210 wrote: post #140
wbl wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you look at the death rate this year? We are on track for 10٪ excess deaths, most of those with at least a decade of life expectancy. The clinical trial for the vaccine was not going to see this with only a few hundred observed cases. That's only a handful of deaths.

In an average year there are about 350,000 deaths in the UK. This year we've had 415,000 - 18% more deaths. The promises from the covid-skeptics were that covid "just killed off people a few months earlier". That hasn't borne out -- in the North West where we suffered from a second wave in October, which led to 40% increase on expected deaths each week for the entire of November (people catching in October) and hospi…

Where are you getting these numbers? "There were 616,014 deaths registered in the UK in 2018, an increase of 1.5% from 607,172 in 2017."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati...

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#189

Post by BurningFrog »

iso1210 wrote: post #147
mrighele wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that the point of vaccinating essential workers first is that they are those that are more likely to spread the virus so by starting with them you stop the virus before it reaches the seniors. Depending on the factors (% of seniors vs. essential workers, availability of vaccine) I can see either approach being more effective.

Not aware of evidence that vaccination stops or reduces spread. Given that asymptomatic and presymptomatic people are the main spreaders, it's certainly not a given. Vaccinating front line health and care workers does make sense for two reasons 1) Far more likely to catch it 2) Far more problematic if they catch it and are off ill because of it Other front line workers like police probably less important -- less like…

There is no evidence the sun will rise tomorrow either.

But it is still rational to use logic and experience and assume that sunrise will probably happen as usual tomorrow, and these vaccines probably behave like other vaccines.

Re: We should administer Covid-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserve doses

#190

Post by xkbarkar »

thebruce87m wrote: post #187
helge9210 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you account for people who died from psychological effects of lockdown and job loss, and from not requesting medical assistance for other conditions because of fear of covid-19?

Countries like Norway show no significant excess mortality for the year despite lockdowns. Suicides also seem unaffected in the UK: https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=... Happy to see evidence otherwise.

Did you read the report you linked to ?

- The post-lockdown figures were higher than in the equivalent period in 2019

- The higher figures in 2020 should be seen in the context of a rising national rate and maturing real-time surveillance systems;

They say , Yes there were more suicides in 2020 than 2019 but that is because suicide rates were rising anyway. and we now monitor them better than we have before. AND the also state

(3)There are several important caveats. These are early figures and could change over time or with the inclusion of more areas. We cannot rule out higher rates in some local areas or population sub-groups, especially as the effect of COVID-19 itself has varied between communities;

http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861

So not unaffected by any means but lockdown impact is still not determined.

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