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Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

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Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am in bay area, but my apartment complex refused to readjust rent to reflect the drop in rent (2500$ to 1800$!). I decided to break the lease and move to a better area.

Great on you! To complete the math, what was the "break" penalty and how much did your new rent save you? These economics are fascinating, SF is crazy.

1 month rent penalty.

The move did not save me money considering the security deposit and moving costs despite the lower rent, infact it cost me 200$. But i got a bigger home in a nicer area. Well worth the 200$ it cost me overall.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great on you! To complete the math, what was the "break" penalty and how much did your new rent save you? These economics are fascinating, SF is crazy.

Unless the lease had other terms written in, California generally allows landlords to continue to charge rent until the unit is rented again (or the end of the lease term).

I had a 1 month lease penalty clause. I thought it was pretty standard.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxing unoccupied homes and apartments will fix things real fast.

Vancouver does this, and it reveals that vacant homes are not the problem. There's a small additional revenue stream, and some college students get to rent our mansions for cheap, but it's simply not enough homes to have much of an impact.

The vacancy/spec tax spiked the amount of rentals hitting the market the year it came into effect, adding 8000-11000 that year depending on if you factor in new builds.

You're only gonna get that big impact one time, but it goes to show that the tax was worth doing.

Doesn't solve the problem by itself, but the tax will help.

The amount of units that suddenly appeared showed that there was a small percent of units "leaking" from every new build that never hit the market.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#454
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both. I spent the last decade having these conversations with people who also grew up here and can’t afford to remain here without staying with their parents, with some of the stranger conversations devolving into my counter parties brainstorming ways to kick tech people out of the City and stop new people from moving in altogether, as if freedom of movement in the United States wasn’t really a thing. It’s not “suppl…

You’re mischaracterizing the left-wing / long term renter position here. This is a very common tactic among local SF “YIMBYs” for some reason. Progressives are not objecting solely on the basis of “character of the city” and in fact regularly poll in favor of development. What they fight for is affordable housing development. Underlying this problem is a massive income disparity between techies and working class folk…

This is a mischaracterization of the YIMBY position. Most YIMBYs are not opposed to raising taxes so that the city can pay for the construction of affordable housing units. (Note that the city doesn't build housing even if they pay for it - developers still do!) YIMBYs also believe, however, that we need housing of all kinds, including market rate housing. That is where YIMBYs and progressives disagree.

Separately, developers are already required to build a certain number of affordable housing units in every development.

If you require developers to build units that are mostly or solely composed of affordable housing, those developers will not earn enough money to make it worth building the units in the first place. This leads to progressives holding up all kinds of development with endless planning meetings and environmental impact assessments. The result is no housing gets built - no affordable housing, no market-rate housing. They allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good.

We need to work with developers to build housing units of all kinds, including affordable housing, rather than demonizing the very developers who are going to end up building those affordable housing developments that I think we all want.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't pass the sniff test to me, at least for most COL levels. The only way that our household was able to reduce our food budget by eating out was to massively reduce quality in order to meet caloric needs. For roughly the equivalent quality of ingredients it was much cheaper for us to cook at home. And that's before we got a bigger house in a lower COL area with a chest freezer, which allows us to bank high…

“ massively reduce quality in order to meet caloric needs”? Please define “massively” for us. It sounds like you were eating larks tongue in aspic and are now buying year-old potatoes at the Latvian coop. Remember, some in an international audience may have done just that at some point. Is that what happened? Wonder if a functional kitchen should be thought of as an expense-management device. No matter what the finan…

> Please define “massively” for us. It sounds like you were eating larks tongue in aspic and are now buying year-old potatoes at the Latvian coop. Remember, some in an international audience may have done just that at some point. Is that what happened?

Whoops, my bad!

Due to the step nature of purchasing food, the break even points change depending on exactly which meals we're talking about dining out for. The more you eat out, the higher the cost per home cooked meals due to loss of economy of scale and spoilage.

My wife, the keeper of the budgets, calculated that the break even point for work lunches was $11 a lunch. This is doable, but it basically means relegating yourself to low end fast food. In the area where I lived (Southern California) that put even Chipotle out of reach for my preferred configuration. There are certainly places that can reliably deliver 800 calories for less, but that'll cost you in the long run in different ways.

> Wonder if a functional kitchen should be thought of as an expense-management device. No matter what the financial situation, in the US without a kitchen you can always find something to eat to keep body and soul together, but with a functional kitchen you can always eat something both tasty and healthy (if you can cook).

I think that's a pretty good way to think about it. As GP has pointed out you do need to purchase an actual kitchen too, but I think that the cost is fairly marginal compared to buying a home in most markets.

> You can choose to cook if you have the cash; you may need to do that if you don’t. The fact that you always can is a very consoling fact in rough economic times.

If one wants true consolation in rough economic times, buy a chest freezer. Nothing provides emotional security like a hundred pounds of meat and vegetables frozen in the garage.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#456
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A property tax is a type of wealth tax. A wealth tax is no more difficult to execute than our existing property tax system.

You're absolutely right - a property tax is a type of wealth tax. I completely agree, which is why I attempted to differentiate between a general-purpose tax on all wealth in any form and a tax on real property. Please accept my humble apologies for my failures to be less clear than I could have been - my communication skills are a work in progress. With that said, I have been under the impression that countries that…

I don't think you're wrong. There's easy parts (ie. publicly traded equities) and hard parts (eg. art collections).

I've been skeptical of skepticism (lol) of the wealth tax mostly because the easy parts dominate the hard parts. Most wealth is in the easily identifiable areas (ie. equities and property) not the hard areas. Even with private companies like some startup, surely the shares have some known valuation right?

My point is though that we've already built a bureaucratic apparatus to evaluate wealth in our property assessment system so surely it's possible to extend this.

A possible implementation would be to mostly ignore the "hard" sectors of wealth (eg. car collections/art collections) or do random audits of the tricky parts just to keep people honest.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#457
post #392

Apartments are getting cheaper. I’m not seeing houses getting cheaper in the rest of the bay. Renting a house where I live in the peninsula is about the same cost as it was a year ago. Maybe 10% less. Basically, anything sharing walls or space is going down but not the other stuff...

This is also what a realtor told me. People working from home means they need bigger spaces, and COVID means they need these spaces by themselves, not shared with other people. IIRC condos haven't been selling well but houses certainly are.

> COVID means they need these spaces by themselves, not shared with other people.

Definitely curious to see data to back that up. I’ve seen a couple friends who used to live alone move into shared housing during the pandemic because they craved more social contact than they could get living alone. I don’t know anyone who’s moved from shared housing to solo housing in this time. Movement away from single-person housing lines up with the price pressure you’re seeing, too: small apartments losing value; houses not losing as much.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#458
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're absolutely right - a property tax is a type of wealth tax. I completely agree, which is why I attempted to differentiate between a general-purpose tax on all wealth in any form and a tax on real property. Please accept my humble apologies for my failures to be less clear than I could have been - my communication skills are a work in progress. With that said, I have been under the impression that countries that…

I don't think you're wrong. There's easy parts (ie. publicly traded equities) and hard parts (eg. art collections). I've been skeptical of skepticism (lol) of the wealth tax mostly because the easy parts dominate the hard parts. Most wealth is in the easily identifiable areas (ie. equities and property) not the hard areas. Even with private companies like some startup, surely the shares have some known valuation righ…

Do you think it's perhaps worth looking at places that have tried wealth taxes? I think it possible that there might be some lessons to be learned from the well-intentioned and sincerely tried efforts of others. Perhaps our basic assumption that what works for real property will surely work for everything might not be trivially true, for example.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some it's a practical, not emotional. If your job is in the city, and does not allow working remotely, the choices are either commute an hour by car each way, commute for roughly as long via public transportation, or live closer to work. Hopefully with Covid forcing more sane remote work policies across the board, fewer people are forced to live somewhere they don't want to.

That's basically what happened. There is an overabundance of jobs but since there is no need to live in San Francisco the fundamental mismatch between commercial and residential property has been resolved temporarily.

Though there was mostly never a need to live in SF for a lot of the tech company jobs. Many/most were people who wanted to live in a city in the Bay Area even if their jobs were in the South Bay. I assume it's an exodus from the Bay Area generally.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#460
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Prop 13 have to do with the fact that they're not building enough housing?

not enough housing to meet demand means raising property values, which is beneficial for property owners without having to pay more taxes

I thought "there is no shortage if you pay enough" shibboleth is universally applicable. H1b/housing/healthcare ?
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