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Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

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Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#361
post #22
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both. I spent the last decade having these conversations with people who also grew up here and can’t afford to remain here without staying with their parents, with some of the stranger conversations devolving into my counter parties brainstorming ways to kick tech people out of the City and stop new people from moving in altogether, as if freedom of movement in the United States wasn’t really a thing. It’s not “suppl…

Exactly -- there's a pervasive belief in the bay area that high rents are solely due to the evil cabal of landlords who meet every week in a dimly lit room and agree to charge sky-high rents while cackling maniacally and twirling their perfectly-waxed moustaches. The sudden COVID-related rent price drop indicates that this theory is nonsense, and that the high rents are solely a function of supply and demand, but I'm…

> The sudden COVID-related rent price drop indicates that this theory is nonsense, and that the high rents are solely a function of supply and demand,

Except your own example demonstrates that it's not. If it was "solely supply and demand", then rents should drop far more dramatically than they have, down to levels comparable to other cities that used to be equally unpopular. Yet there's a literal pandemic and even though demand for San Francisco housing is at a ~20-year low, with newly-empty units everywhere, San Francisco still remains one of the priciest cities in the nation. Short of like, an earthquake wiping SF off the map or similar sized event, demand for SF housing will never get lower than this, and it's still not enough to bring rents remotely back into the real world.

Supply and demand have an impact on housing prices, but are definitely not the "sole" source of them. Landlord behaviour, city tax goals, investment banking demands, private equity involvement, and much more all dramatically impact the price of rent far more than "supply v demand" or any "regulation" does.

This is hard to understand for folks used to megacity pricing, where "high demand" (i.e., a small-but-consistent influx of new residents) is until recently, an automatic given thing you could just always point to as blame for any problem. For those of us out in the midwest, where demand is regularly falling in many places, where new construction always outpaces population growth every single year, and yet the housing prices still always rise, the disconnect between prices and supply/demand is quite a bit more obvious.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#362
post #304
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our landlord proactively offered! We pushed back a little and got an overall savings of around $6000 for committing to another year in an apartment we love. Well worth it. Added bonus: The apartment is rent controlled so it will take 2 to 3 years before rent climbs back up to our old level, if we stay.

I'm not sure rent control works that way. I think it only depends on the base rent, which is the rent in the year you moved in. I don't think later reductions reduce the base rent. Which implies if you want to lock in lower rent with respect to rent control, you have to start a new lease in a different location.

The new effective rent takes over, I assume they are month to month.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#363
post #54

Don't ask, Don't get. Everyone I know who has asked for a discount has got the discount. After several months of the pandemic, and noticing the adjacent apartment being relisted by my landlord at a discount I emailed my landlord and asked if I could have my rent adjusted by the same discount. They said yes, if I committed to another years lease. Saving 5% of rent, at the cost of a one year commitment didn't seem like…

Another data point. Tried to get a discount in our Inner Sunset 1BR that we paid $3250 for. Other units in the same building listed for the past few months for $2700 with 2 months free (effectively $2250). Denied a decrease (citing CA Fair Housing and not giving anyone a decrease) so we paid 1 months rent to break the lease. Now living in a 2BR by the beach for the same price as before with 50% more space, W/D, garag…

I had a corporate landlord in Foster City and asked, they wouldn’t budge and invited me to reapply for a different apartment at a lower rate as the lease was up. I live in LA now.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#364
post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of LVTs is precisely to alter participants' behavior in the market. The value of LVTs is in aligning incentives so that landlords have an incentive to build more housing and use it more efficiently. It makes vacancy & speculation a money-losing endeavor (the same way that inflation makes holding cash a money-losing endeavor), and creates political pressure to repeal zoning laws and create smart public impro…

> The point of LVTs is precisely to alter participants' behavior in the market. Maybe this is the point to its proponents. However: > Its value as a revenue source is secondary, and many proponents (of the geolibertarian sort) actually support lower tax receipts and smaller government. Statements like this muddy tax discussions. The primary reason for any tax at all, regardless of type or preference is to raise reven…

That depends whether you're a politician or an economist. ;-) Through a politician's lens the goal of a tax is to raise revenue for government and tax policy exists to do that efficiently. Through an economist's lens efficient trade and alignment of incentives are fundamental and governments exist only incidentally to ensure those. There are various schools of economics that suggest limiting government's role only to the enforcement of private property rights and kneecapping its ability to do anything else.

It's much like how to a physicist, vectors are real objects that live in the abstract concept of a vector space, while to a mathematician vector spaces are fundamental axioms and the existence of vectors is just a consequence that falls out of these axioms.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great on you! To complete the math, what was the "break" penalty and how much did your new rent save you? These economics are fascinating, SF is crazy.

Unless the lease had other terms written in, California generally allows landlords to continue to charge rent until the unit is rented again (or the end of the lease term).

so considering the covid and the fact that it will be hard to get rented ... OP made a mistake?

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having lived on another island, with the same woes of SF (limited land, high growth), the problem is always the same - even though it's been on a much smaller scale. The people that have owned for the past 30-50 years, are completely unwilling to give up on their single family homes, gardens, etc. They basically demand to live a nice and cushy suburban life, in the middle of a big city. It then takes forever to build…

The Big One may solve that problem.

It can't come soon enough...

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked as a line cook in college. The place I worked was in a HCOL city, but nowhere close to SF. Our general rule was that items should sell for about 4x the cost of ingredients to cover all overhead. I'm a salaried employ with no expectation of overtime, so my opportunity cost to cook for myself is essentially $0/hr, but even if I factor in a fairly reasonable $15/hr for my own labor, I'm still easily under 4x ra…

I think that there are a couple effects here. One is that $15/hr is a dramatic underestimate of the opportunity cost for many of the people who would otherwise be eating out. Minimum wage in Mountain View & Sunnyvale is $16.05/hour. My wife & my salaries, if converted to hourly, would be several hundred / hour. We cook at home because we're salaried and so don't actually reap that opportunity cost in cash, and becaus…

Average Taiwan household income per capita is $14k USD. The US is 30k. So there is less money to spend on eating out.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop it. Do you live in San Francisco? I don’t mean the Bay Area. Do you actually live in San Francisco? Why did Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland see very similar percentage based increases at the same time? Why has the entire Bay Area? Foreign investment. As soon as Vancouver passed legislation to curb foreign investment their real estate moved back to normal. 1 in 4 housing purchases in California are all cash. Tha…

"Back to normal" Do you have a source on this? From what I've seen, Vancouver real estate (and Toronto) is still ludicrous (given Canadian wages). I'd also like to see a vacancy tax or perhaps an even more directed law prohibiting foreign ownership of a certain level. Then again, I'd also like to see Prop 13 not apply to commercial property, not be passed on in inheritance, and not apply to non-primary residences, bu…

Since assholes flagged parent comment I'll add my comment here.

Foreign investment, is really not just foreigner in the traditional since. It also includes anyone from outside the city looking for a place to park their share of the fire house of liquidity the central banks are handing out to the ubber wealthy.

Sure you can stop foreign investors like a nouveau riche Chinese national that owns a successful business in China. But that stuff doesn't even slow down old money.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but you can buy an apartment 25 miles / 30 min from the city center with a minimum wage salary (I know, I have friends who did it). Try doing that in the Bay.

Do you have any more details on that? I'd like to know more. Either apartments outside of Paris are dirt cheap or minimum wage in France is really high. A dev from Paris I met in Germany said he left due to how unaffordable housing was so something doesn't add up.

it is simple. rich suburbs are sometimes even pricier than paris.

suburbs with massive ethnic populations (1st/2nd generation or immigrants) are dirt cheap but for some of them that means getting food at the hallal butcher,eating kebab, going to a hairdresser where the windows are closed so that you can't see women inside, high crime, dirty cities ran by leftist at best, communist at worst that deny high income to move in those cities (because high income votes right) which spiral into more crime and more diversity stomping away what makes france france.

Airbnb + rich tourists wanting a flat in paris also destroyed real estate in paris (which is a small city)

Oh and before the downvotes im a 2nd generation immigrant.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this sarcastic? Rent control drives up rent. It doesn't make housing cheaper, it's just NIMBYism that renters get to participate in

What? rent control drives up rent like minimum wage drives wages down. There is some serious dissonance to the real world here.

The freakonomics podcast had a decent episode about this. They frequently host liberal economic ideas as well, so don't assume the opinions come from some landowner backed think tank.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

In the real world, places with rent control are the most expensive and have gotten more expensive. It does not help housing prices.

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