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Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

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Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are bad faith arguments and therefore you are either debating in bad faith, or a dupe. San Francisco's gross water demand has been falling consistently for the last 50 years. Not per-capita. Gross. In 1998 the demand was 82 million gallons per day and in 2019 it was 63 million, with a population 17% greater. The more people you pile into a city, the less demand there is, because grossly wasteful activities like…

This is mostly from quality-of-life reductions, like inferior showers, toilets, washing machines, etc. You can only reduce quality of life so much.

You're going to need to present some evidence for this, I think. I don't even know what an "inferior toilet" is. I've pooped in a lot of SF toilets and can assure you that they've all gotten the job done satisfactorily.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dear SF, More apartments built are the only thing to make housing more affordable for normal people. But, when you think of them, you're thinking way too small. You need to think in terms of, like, literally doubling the number of apartments available, and they may then be in reach of normal people once more. You also need to get yourself together and reverse that trend where your transit system has carried fewer peo…

So, the infrastructure can handle double its current utilization? Aren’t the sewers in SF literally over a century old? No issues with adequate water supply and sewage treatment?

Aren’t the sewers in SF literally over a century old?

An entire city's entire sewer system isn't all built in one year. Real life isn't Sim City.

There is constant maintenance and replacement. You don't have to be an urban planner to know this, you just have to look at the construction going on in your own neighborhood.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years I’ve come to the realization that a number of “kitchens” in luxury apartments are clearly designed for making at most breakfast and otherwise looking pretty. It’s not all luxury apartments, not by a long shot, but a surprising number were unusable due to layout mistakes or a complete lack of equipment (on the owners side). The conclusion I came to is that the people who rented these units valued a pret…

> If land is incredibly expensive and one intends to eat most of their meals out, it doesn’t actually make sense to rent a full kitchen. It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise. From a purely economic perspective, a kitchen at home, when other sources of food are widely available, is tough to justify. From a w…

> It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise. From a purely economic perspective, a kitchen at home, when other sources of food are widely available, is tough to justify.

It really depends what one eats. If one is okay with eating widely available low cost foods, then yes, commercial kitchens are more efficient. For example, Burger King here will sell you a three whopper, three cheeseburger, and three fries family meal for $14.99 (silicon valley prices, likely lower in the rest of the nation). Pretty hard to compete against that if one considers the cost of making a burger from scratch and cleaning up the mess from deep frying at home.

But fast food is a low margin high volume business. Looking at higher margin items, like what you'd eat in a steakhouse, the economics of a kitchen change dramatically. For example, I recently bought four USDA prime tenderloins from Costco for roughly $58 total. Each one of them, plated and served, would be $35 to $50, excluding taxes and tip. Given that cooking those is pretty easy (either with just an inexpensive cast iron pan and oven, or using sous vide if one wants to get fancy) and takes a grand total of five to ten minutes to make, then the kitchen becomes a much better value proposition.

And that's saying nothing of people with restrictive diets, where oftentimes it's just easier to cook at home. Depending on which friend I'm dining with, the restrictions might be celiac (strict no gluten, not fad diet no gluten), low/no carb, pescatarian, vegan, religious dietary restrictions, nut allergies, and so on. Sometimes the combinations basically exclude most of the restaurants out there, and at that point, it's easier to cook at home than go out only to be restricted to a few items in the menu.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> More apartments built are the only thing to make housing more affordable for normal people What? No! Rent control is among other something that can lower the rent for normal people. I know SF has rent control, but currently it only applies as long as you don’t move.

Rent control stops rent from going up, but how does it make rent go down?

Public housing would.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the thing: maintenance of existing infrastructure that serves existing residents is almost entirely paid for by astronomical "impact fees" paid by new developments. In the East Bay, 85% of EBMUD's maintenance (not capital!) budget is funded from impact fees. These can be really high. Any new dwelling in the East Bay pays a minimum of $26000 for water capacity and a minimum of $4100 for wastewater capacity. It'…

So, is the existing infrastructure well maintained in your opinion and adequate for existing use?

That the SFPUC's facilities are adequate to water their 2.7 million existing customers seems like a fact which proves itself.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#236
post #3

> the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in the city, which currently measures around 2.3 bedrooms when counting a studio as having one, has dropped to $3,100 a month. Still too high. Was checking into apartment prices earlier in the year and it is amazing the number of landlords that will try and sell you on a “kitchen” that is a mini-fridge, tiny sink, microwave and a hot plate whilst still charging you…

It's also surprising considering how high crime is in San Francisco. In terms of real estate you should be getting a discount to take on the risk of living there, not the other way around.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dear SF, More apartments built are the only thing to make housing more affordable for normal people. But, when you think of them, you're thinking way too small. You need to think in terms of, like, literally doubling the number of apartments available, and they may then be in reach of normal people once more. You also need to get yourself together and reverse that trend where your transit system has carried fewer peo…

> More apartments built are the only thing to make housing more affordable for normal people What? No! Rent control is among other something that can lower the rent for normal people. I know SF has rent control, but currently it only applies as long as you don’t move.

Missed economics class? It's basic supply and demand. Rent control doesn't do anything to make housing affordable for people trying to get an apartment in the city, all it does is make it near impossible to find an affordable unit (because people who are under rent control are unwilling to move), and push up the price of non controlled units.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because renting in SF trades off in part against buying in SF at the margins (and against renting nearby to SF and against moving out of SF entirely). If buying in SF becomes more expensive due to an LVT, then renting becomes more competitive on the margin. I find it to be strangely magical thinking that land-value-taxes will precisely and surgically extract 100% of their value from landlords with no players in the g…

The idea behind the LVT is not about making rent cheaper. It's to reward landlords for using land more efficiently. If the land costs a fixed amount you want to build as many units as possible and make each unit as attractive as possible. Compare that to a conventional property tax where you have to pay more tax for each unit of housing you build. You also have to pay property taxes for home improvement meaning old p…

Have LVT proponents ever considered augmenting it with tax credits on the LVT for property improvements? To really hammer home incentives towards development in especially supply-strained markets such as S.F.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#239
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Saying "it's about supply and demand" is not technically wrong but it glosses over the toxic systemic changes which brought us here and exculpates the people who deliberately fought for them to create this mess. I am happy to discuss all variables which inform the price, so long as we agree to give supply and demand top billing. We can even discuss the variables which inform supply if you like.

Is Supply and Demand really the end-all, be-all of economics? Don't things like Veblen goods demonstrate that there is some nuance to the topic.

Veblen goods are a special case that prove the concept. With a Veblen good the price paid is part of the demand: you want that Rolls Royce or Lamborghini or diamond ring because its expense signifies your social status. The demand curve then slopes upward: at higher price points consumers demand them more. You can still analyze them by supply & demand, but you just have to take into account the upward-sloping demand curve (which is not unlimited, BTW: Veblen goods still reach an equilibrium price point where supply reaches buyer's ability to pay, it's just higher).

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#240
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_housing_in_Singapore

Singapore relies heavily on cheap foreign construction workers. In order for that model to be applied in SF would require opening the Mexican border to allow for cheap immigrant workers to come to SF. That’s not going to fly for many reasons.

I always thought that most of the construction workers in SF are illegal immigrants from Mexico and have been for the last 30 years or more.

I always thought that there were about 8 million illegal immigrants in California, then 9/11 happened, but even after 9/11 the number never dipped below 1 or 2 million -- and if it got that low, it was only for a few years.

Also, I thought that when the numbers have gone down, from 8 million to 4 million, say, it is more because of an increase in economic opportunity in Mexico than it is because of an increase in the effectiveness of US border control.

And I thought that even with all his talk, Trump didn't improve US border control significantly.

But I don't have any direct motive to stay informed on this issue. E.g., I don't hire cheap workers. So it is possible I am misinformed.

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