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Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

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Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having lived on another island, with the same woes of SF (limited land, high growth), the problem is always the same - even though it's been on a much smaller scale. The people that have owned for the past 30-50 years, are completely unwilling to give up on their single family homes, gardens, etc. They basically demand to live a nice and cushy suburban life, in the middle of a big city. It then takes forever to build…

> unwilling to give up on their single family homes I think that expecting people to "give up their homes" is more than unreasonable. The reasonable compromise being that builders can build in more densely once the current owners sell it.

Absolutely. Upzoning never forces owners to "give up their home"-- maybe the issue is owners don't want their neighbors to be able to sell their homes to developers either.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#133
post #82
post #3

> the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in the city, which currently measures around 2.3 bedrooms when counting a studio as having one, has dropped to $3,100 a month. Still too high. Was checking into apartment prices earlier in the year and it is amazing the number of landlords that will try and sell you on a “kitchen” that is a mini-fridge, tiny sink, microwave and a hot plate whilst still charging you…

Those landlords don't try to sell that small kitchen, they DO sell that small kitchen. When I was shopping for an apartment in SF 2 years ago there was no spot that did not have at least 2 other parties looking at it. There was no room for negotiation or to even take a day to think it over, if you walked away from it, there were 2 people right behind you to take it.

> There was no room for negotiation or to even take a day to think it over, if you walked away from it, there were 2 people right behind you to take it.

Naive question maybe, but if demand is that high, why don't prices rise even higher to balance it out a bit? Presumably most landlords would prefer another hundred or two a month at the cost of a few extra days on the market?

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#134
post #40

If the city would rezone all of the single family homes into higher density buildings, this wouldn't be a problem. Flood the area with supply and the cost will go down to reasonable levels. This is a problem all across the nation. Everyone wants a single family home, so this leads to two things: outrageously high costs of homes, or people moving out to the suburbs and thus worsening the rush hour traffic and smog iss…

Increasingly, single family detached homes in the interior of SF are owned by the very wealthy who can remain in the city to shape policy over the long term, while renters come and go. So don't expect anyone at City Hall to swing a wrecking ball in the direction of Pac Heights. The problem has solved itself already - the US is big and empty. There is little reason to stack people twenty stories high in a Zoom economy…

I wouldn't bet against urbanization. There are many advantages to living in a large, busy city and Zoom can only counter some of them.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years I’ve come to the realization that a number of “kitchens” in luxury apartments are clearly designed for making at most breakfast and otherwise looking pretty. It’s not all luxury apartments, not by a long shot, but a surprising number were unusable due to layout mistakes or a complete lack of equipment (on the owners side). The conclusion I came to is that the people who rented these units valued a pret…

> If land is incredibly expensive and one intends to eat most of their meals out, it doesn’t actually make sense to rent a full kitchen. It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise. From a purely economic perspective, a kitchen at home, when other sources of food are widely available, is tough to justify. From a w…

> It is hard to beat the economies of scale of a restaurant, as much as the "you only need to factor the cost of raw food" camp like to tell otherwise

I'd be interested in seeing your math on the subject, and it probably depends on location and at what rate do you "bill" your time, but restaurants have a lot of overhead ( property, staff, taxes) that offsets economies of scale.

Even without going all-in with cheap foods ( like rice or potatoes), I can't imagine eating out in similar quality and quantity being cheaper than cooking it yourself ( again, depending on how you count your time spent).

Of course McDonald's cheapest items will be cheaper than making yourself lobsters, but that's not really a fair comparison.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#136
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zoning is a result of NIMBYism. NIMBYism is a result of people who really want to protect the value of their land. Some of these people will be quite desperate to do this because they're highly leveraged. Negative equity is a good incentive to turn up to your local planning meetings and inhibit development.

I think NIMBYism only looks financially attractive because everyone who bought a square of land in a "city" since the 1970s or so and held for at least a decade has won big regardless of where. That doesn't mean that SF/SV isn't forgoing a lot of money in order to keep its NIMBY policy. Think about how much just the squares of land those single family homes and low rise buildings in SV are on would be worth if the SF…

[deleted]

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#137
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Supply and Demand really the end-all, be-all of economics? Don't things like Veblen goods demonstrate that there is some nuance to the topic.

No but when figuring out what informs a price you want to look at supply and demand first . There’s room for other variables, but you normally start there. EDIT: While I’m inside the edit window, let me throw in another big variable as an example. Costs are another factor that inform a price, and a big one. You could make a case that it deserves higher billing than supply and demand, but if your costs are $X but you…

But property supply itself is a constrained effect of politics and the relative power of various social groups, not a unique and independent primary cause.

If landlords can make a killing by constraining supply politically, they will. So the primary cause is the incentive system and the political environment which makes it possible for them to do that.

It's all about how the reward functions are designed. So of course if you reward scarcity and profiteering that's what you get - as a secondary outcome, not a primary cause.

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#138
post #99

Dear SF, More apartments built will not help make housing more affordable for normal people. Learn about the NYC real estate market- even pre covid apartment vacancy was extremely high, and the true numbers are unknown because building developers are manipulating the market by releasing units slowly. With all the excessive inventory in NYC, you'd think that a normal person (defined by median income) could afford to b…

Consider Tokyo. They have kept supply up with demand, and as a result prices have stayed relatively flat.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-housing-crisis-in-japan-ho...

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#139
post #115
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just new construction. Studio apartments in old buildings have also been retrofitted into 1-bedrooms by gutting the kitchen and carving out one of these crap kitchenettes from the main room, including in a building I used to live in. When I was exploring listings to see how the pandemic affects prices earlier in the year, these “kitchens” I described were also the norm over in the Sunset and Richmond around... Se…

Welcome to a place in a Pompei insulae, circa 100 BC :-))

Ah so I wasn’t the only one thinking it over the weekend.

It’s amazing how little actually changes after two millennia. At least we know people are still people. :)

Re: Average Rent in San Francisco Has Dropped $1k This Year

#140
post #99

Dear SF, More apartments built will not help make housing more affordable for normal people. Learn about the NYC real estate market- even pre covid apartment vacancy was extremely high, and the true numbers are unknown because building developers are manipulating the market by releasing units slowly. With all the excessive inventory in NYC, you'd think that a normal person (defined by median income) could afford to b…

Dear SF, More apartments built are the only thing to make housing more affordable for normal people. But, when you think of them, you're thinking way too small. You need to think in terms of, like, literally doubling the number of apartments available, and they may then be in reach of normal people once more. You also need to get yourself together and reverse that trend where your transit system has carried fewer peo…

So, the infrastructure can handle double its current utilization?

Aren’t the sewers in SF literally over a century old?

No issues with adequate water supply and sewage treatment?

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