Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

theness.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

331–339 of 339 posts

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#331

Post by tialaramex »

matz1 wrote: post #320
tialaramex wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You give Florida as an example. If we scaled up New Zealand's population to Florida's their total COVID-19 fatalities would be about 100. But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping. You list as a downside of New Zealand's approach unemployment. Scaled up, New Zealand would have about 600k unemployed people. But Florida actually has 650k. So that seems like…

>But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping. Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. People who happen to be covid positive during the death is included in the number. Most importantly with the current death number, i didn't say florida government handling it perfectly but I much…

> Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid.

Although 20 thousand people's cause of death is listed as COVID-19, about 27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida, and that'll probably be closer to 30 thousand by New Year.

So, rather than 20 thousand being "highly inflated" as you propose it's likely a considerable undercount.

> But for sure some unemployment is caused by lockdown due to simple logic: if you don't allow business to open due to lockdown, the worker wouldn't have job.

Unemployment is being caused largely by the economic slowdown, and by significantly reduced footfall, driven by inability to control a pandemic.

Of course in New Zealand that's largely restricted to just one sector: International tourism, whereas in Florida their whole economy is constantly being kicked in the head by the policies you admire and will be for months to come.

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#332

Post by cma »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #180

All correct. But also, disturbingly Utilitarian. Release vaccines before they are tested, and withdraw those that cause more deaths than they save? Trading lives for lives, coldly. There are costs to calculated Utilitarianism. The damage to public confidence in vaccines springs to mind. If a vaccine is provably killing 1% of those receiving it, yet saving the lives of 2% (and more once herd immunity is reached) it ma…

> There are costs to calculated Utilitarianism. The damage to public confidence in vaccines springs to mind. If a vaccine is provably killing 1% of those receiving it, yet saving the lives of 2% (and more once herd immunity is reached) it may raise some alarmist criticism (to say the least) over the safety and advisability of getting vaccinated. Making it harder to convince the public to get vaccinated at all.

If that can already be calculated, calculated utilitarianism could take it into account.

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#333

Post by matz1 »

tialaramex wrote: post #331
matz1 wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping. Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. People who happen to be covid positive during the death is included in the number. Most importantly with the current death number, i didn't say florida government handling it perfectly but I much…

> Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. Although 20 thousand people's cause of death is listed as COVID-19, about 27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida, and that'll probably be closer to 30 thousand by New Year. So, rather than 20 thousand being "highly inflated" as you propose it's likely a considerable undercount. > But…

>27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida

Are the excess death is solely caused by covid ?

>Unemployment is being caused largely by the economic slowdown, and by significantly reduced footfall, driven by inability to control a pandemic.

I'm not saying I agree with all Florida government policies. The unemployment issue exist even without pandemic, but here I'm specifically taking about the unemployment that is caused by lockdown.

if you don't allow business to open, then some extra unemployment bound to happen. Assuming the lockdown do work, Is it worth it for a virus that have less than 1% death rate ? for me its very very not worth it. Furthermore unemployment is just one of the many of problem caused by lockdown.

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#334

Post by JoeAltmaier »

cma wrote: post #332
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #180

All correct. But also, disturbingly Utilitarian. Release vaccines before they are tested, and withdraw those that cause more deaths than they save? Trading lives for lives, coldly. There are costs to calculated Utilitarianism. The damage to public confidence in vaccines springs to mind. If a vaccine is provably killing 1% of those receiving it, yet saving the lives of 2% (and more once herd immunity is reached) it ma…

> There are costs to calculated Utilitarianism. The damage to public confidence in vaccines springs to mind. If a vaccine is provably killing 1% of those receiving it, yet saving the lives of 2% (and more once herd immunity is reached) it may raise some alarmist criticism (to say the least) over the safety and advisability of getting vaccinated. Making it harder to convince the public to get vaccinated at all. If tha…

...and that's why we release vaccines slowly and carefully, I imagine.

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#335

Post by drcross »

wahern wrote: post #231
drcross wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're proposing is highly experimental and probably wouldn't work. There's no single country in the world that has been able to restrain the sars2 virus despite spending millions trying to do so.

Other than Australia, China, New Zealand, and Vietnam, you mean? And China managed that after it had already spread widely domestically; the others were quick on their feet.

Australia- It's summer there. Duh. China- I'd prefer to die than live on my knees New Zealand- Summer. and Vietnam- SARS1 cross immunity, remember?

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#336

Post by [deleted] »

matz1 wrote: post #316
lostlogin wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain your preference for no-lockdown? NZ is covid free, the economy is rebounding fast and we have had very few deaths and (relative to others) short lockdowns. Unemployment is considerably less than expected. Christmas is shaping up to be normal. The results in NZ are only subjective if you pull some elaborate contortions, NZ has done well.

Few months lockdown is not short at all. Even then they still not allowing international visitor. My preference is simply based on cost/benefit analysis. I'm not opposed of covid free at all, as long as whatever method you choose doesn't cause problem that outweight the risk. Here is some example that is not a lockdown: Increasing health care capacity Developing better treatment Use more accurate test Sweeden, florid…

[deleted]

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#337

Post by tialaramex »

matz1 wrote: post #333
tialaramex wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. Although 20 thousand people's cause of death is listed as COVID-19, about 27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida, and that'll probably be closer to 30 thousand by New Year. So, rather than 20 thousand being "highly inflated" as you propose it's likely a considerable undercount. > But…

>27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida Are the excess death is solely caused by covid ? >Unemployment is being caused largely by the economic slowdown, and by significantly reduced footfall, driven by inability to control a pandemic. I'm not saying I agree with all Florida government policies. The unemployment issue exist even without pandemic, but here I'm specifically taking about the unemployment t…

> Are the excess death is solely caused by covid ?

Not all of them, I'm sure plenty of people in Florida committed suicide out of despair, drank themselves to death and so on as a result of the pandemic virus as well. It would be easy to become hopeless somewhere with tens of thousands of needless deaths while idiots cheer it on from a safe distance.

> if you don't allow business to open, then some extra unemployment bound to happen

If all your businesses are "open" but potential customers sensibly choose to reduce their exposure by staying away, unemploymentment sky-rockets anyway, as it has in Florida. Then you'd need substantial government action to prevent the worst effects of that, and of course that was never likely under Trump whereas Ardern's government in New Zealand immediately began programmes to try to prevent employers going bankrupt during Level 3 and to protect individuals from the economic impact, as well as pursuing elimination strategy for the virus itself.

As a result New Zealand was able to largely re-open and is already well into its economic recovery - aside from international tourism. They're having a pretty good summer.

Your problem is that you started with a belief you wanted to justify and then you've embarrassed yourself by pretending you've proceeded rationally when actually you were just making excuses. Just admit to people how it is, you're a selfish asshole who doesn't want to obey restrictions that keep other people safe. Just say it, if it makes you feel bad that is, after all, your problem.

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#338

Post by AceyMan »

jobigoud wrote: post #286
AceyMan wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vote / Reply I'll take two fewer years of lifespan, for 200, Alex. I'm an athlete, and my cardiopulmonary bits are essential to my sense of well-being. /Acey

You say this now but if we ask you then, the day of your death, would you rather die now or live a few more years in a diminished capacity, you might have a very different answer.

Don't outsmart yourself.

If you told anyone, on their death bed, "if you had run 25 km a week since [n-15 years] you would have been able to move better / dance with pretty girls / play [tennis | golf | etc] until two years ago," I think most people would say WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL ME.

/Acey

Re: It took two days to develop Moderna’s vaccine

#339

Post by eli_gottlieb »

ThrustVectoring wrote: post #206
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I got muscle aches, fatigue, and headaches, but my arm never felt more than a little hot. I still have no idea which branch I'm in.

you probably got the vaccine, saline injections don't do that

That's what I thought, but my effects were mild compared to what I've heard other people reporting. Either I got milder side-effects because I'm young, or I'm fooling myself.
Post reply on HN