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What if incomes grew like GDP?

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Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#101
post #100
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, that's the point. How do you think the doctors and lawyers feel (or to be more specific to HN--the people doing well in the tech sector)? Having a finger pointed at you for living your life without "doing something" when you're not part of the country leadership is an aspect of the "change" myth we're often subject to (i.e. it's your fault things are bad, not the actual people in charge). *also depending on w…

Doctors and lawyers are not making $50k a year. $50k is not even the average annual income in this country; it is not the income of the barely-wealthy. This is the problem: people making multiples of $50k live fundamentally different lives from those making sub-$50k. They have money to burn, and they do just that, often on self-serving goods and services with limited ROI compared to what the same amount of money woul…

> Doctors and lawyers are not making $50k a year

For the most part, no.

> $50k is not even the average annual income in this country

That depends which average you are referring to. It's well above the median personal income (around $35K)—the median being usually the useful average for income statistics, but a little bit less than the mean personal income. (The most common “average income” number, though, is neither of those, but the median household income, which is close it $70K, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about an individual's income being average or not and looking at a household, instead of individual, metric to judge that.)

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#102
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would seem services like cloud services, ad services, etc (Google, FB, MSFT) would be included in GDP. > GDP is perhaps the most closely-watched and important economic indicator for both economists and investors alike because it is a representation of the total dollar value of all goods and services produced by an economy over a specific time period. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is-gdp-why-its...

Not exactly: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/10/25/were-doi... And as far as Microsoft: software was only added after 1999 and its relevance is only measured in sales not actual productivity. GDP assumes the production of more of something is growth--software doesn't work like that so its inclusion still fails as an accurate measure.

I'm trying hard to understand your point, but it still feels to me like you're off the mark here.

GDP is not a measure of productivity. It's a measure of output per capita. If you're saying that productivity when up due to software, then output (per capita per hours worked) must have gone up somewhere due to using that software. And as a result it would be captured in GDP.

Imaging for example I sold a manual tool to tend the field when growing crops. If I suddenly invent a new tool that makes you twice as productive, then yes I may sell the exact same number of tools (so it's not captured in GDP), but now every farmer buying it will be making twice a much crop which will be captured in GDP. Or they'll be making the same amount of crop in half the time which would show up as reduced hours worked (which is not what we see).

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#103
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors and lawyers are not making $50k a year. $50k is not even the average annual income in this country; it is not the income of the barely-wealthy. This is the problem: people making multiples of $50k live fundamentally different lives from those making sub-$50k. They have money to burn, and they do just that, often on self-serving goods and services with limited ROI compared to what the same amount of money woul…

> Doctors and lawyers are not making $50k a year For the most part, no. > $50k is not even the average annual income in this country That depends which average you are referring to. It's well above the median personal income (around $35K)—the median being usually the useful average for income statistics, but a little bit less than the mean personal income. (The most common “average income” number, though, is neither…

Generally, when one says average, they mean average. I used it deliberately because of the implicit comparison to be made between it and the median, and because of where it compares to the arbitrary $50k figure grandparent chose to swing the conversation around.

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The rate of return you get on your capital increase as your capital increases" is the most interesting thing I've gotten from Piketty's book, and it's definitely been true for me.

I think this is true, but only to a point. It's certainly true when the comparison is 10K to invest vs 10M, as liquidity of markets is not yet a concern and the investor with 10M is suddenly "accredited", can afford to pay a financial advisor, etc. However, at 10M vs 10B, the 10M investor is much better off. Liquidity becomes a real concern - there's just not that many assets or stocks that can support that kind of a…

> I think this is true, but only to a point.

This comment here is kinda incredible at being "technically correct". The argument is "That's not always true, it only hold for 99.99% of the time".

As in even if you're in the 99.99% OPs reasoning still holds. And yet so much time on this site is spent arguing on behalf of the .001% Ie people with way above $400 million in net worth.

You realize you're talking about fewer than 3000 people in the entire USA. Why is this even worth discussing? And that's still assuming they're putting all of their net worth into a single investment which they aren't.

This is so far from the point of being discussed it's a complete distraction. The epitome of "well actually...".

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#105
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's way too much wealth worship in the US. Yeah most rich people are smart but not exponentially smarter than everyone else. A lot of wealth is luck. But wealthy people (like HN audience) don't like to hear that. I can't find a link but there's controlled studies that show the richer someone precieves they are, the more they attribute it to skill. Even in studies where outcomes are completely randomized. Usually…

I think OP's comment is different. It's demand-side, not supply-side. If a CEO causes 1000 employees to be 1% more efficient, that creates the same value as 1000 employees each being 1% more efficient. Ergo, if I'm an investor, if I believe a CEO will be slightly better than another CEO, it makes sense to pay a lot more. If I have a market of 7 billion people in the world, and my software saves everyone a dollar, I'v…

Your assumptions fall apart of you consider that it's not all skill, part of it is random.

You're falling into the same trap. You think someone is better when in all probability they got luckier. And you think that picking someone you think is better will statistically get you a better person when that's not true if credentials are highly luck based. It's like buying lotto tickets from a gas station that's produced more winners in the past.

I'm saying your measurements aren't going to be any better than whatever percent of "skill" is randomness. CEO candidate 2 went to a better school but you don't know that it was his grandpa's alma matter who pulled some strings. Candidate 3 might be a multimillionaire but it's because he got a settlement from a malfunctioning ski lift when he was 10.

A lot of the "signals" companies use to determine if somebody would be a good leader or employee are 100% luck based. You could statistically pick a worse candidate every time that looks betters if you're looking at the wrong signals.

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The socialist "nanny state" democracies in europe have much lower wealth inequality, and much higher social mobility than the US. To me, it's a clear blueprint to follow.

The main difference is that the top 10% like software engineers and doctors earn much less and the bottom 50% earn more. So most people posting at HN would be much poorer while the top 0.1% are still very rich in Europe.

That's just not true https://www.vox.com/2018/7/29/17627134/income-inequality-cha...

> . In 2016, the top 1 percent in Western Europe had about a 12-percent share of income, compared to 20 percent in the United States

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#107
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's way too much wealth worship in the US. Yeah most rich people are smart but not exponentially smarter than everyone else. A lot of wealth is luck. But wealthy people (like HN audience) don't like to hear that. I can't find a link but there's controlled studies that show the richer someone precieves they are, the more they attribute it to skill. Even in studies where outcomes are completely randomized. Usually…

I think OP's comment is different. It's demand-side, not supply-side. If a CEO causes 1000 employees to be 1% more efficient, that creates the same value as 1000 employees each being 1% more efficient. Ergo, if I'm an investor, if I believe a CEO will be slightly better than another CEO, it makes sense to pay a lot more. If I have a market of 7 billion people in the world, and my software saves everyone a dollar, I'v…

Discussing CEOs is completely missing the point. There are fewer than 2000 businesses in the entire country with more than 10,000 employees. Meaning fewer than 2000 CEOs of them.

The issues are that fundamentally capital naturally accrues capital - it's is not a stable equilibrium. Capital is sticky and pulls in other capital. The second is that when a country grows in productivity and wealth those gains go to some split of capital and to labor, and in the US for the past 55 years they have gone exclusively to capital.

To explain this, imaging there are two rooms, and everyone enters a room. The one on the left or the one on the right. You enter with the money you own. Then when inside each room, once a day you pick a number from 1-100 and get paid (or debited) based on the number chosen. The issue is the distributions in each room are different. In the room on the left, 70% of numbers pay a positive return based on what you brought in (the rest take money from you). In the room on the right, only 20% of numbers pay a positive return and it's a flat amount from the distribution.

People in the room on the left spend all this time discussing how they have the greatest picking strategy, and how much better they are at picking, when fundamentally the difference is that they're in the room on the left and that's the distribution where all the gains are.

And all of the above ignores the fact that you can split your wealth and use it to pick multiple numbers in the room on the left and so reducing your risk of losing overall, while the room on the right you have to pick one and bet it all on it.

The fundamental issue is that all income gains are going to capital, and not to labor. The end state of this is that most of the room on the right all goes bankrupt.

So why doesn't everyone everyone go in the room on the left? There is a daily fee to be alive and unless you have the wealth to start, even if you hit the best distribution in the left, you still won't have enough to cover the flat fee.

That gets you to the second issue. Investing in capital markets it's some genius plan that only wealthy people can think of. Fundamentally it's not all that different from sports betting or any of another different fields. Why doesn't everyone do it? Because only some people can afford to do so and get returns that are worth it. And people really underappreciate how little of a meritocracy it is.

Imaging you come up with a genius investing plan and manage to average 20% returns every year for 20 years. This is brilliant and almost impossible. But your initial investment is all you have: a single dollar. At the end of that period, you've got Someone else who does the exact same work, has the exact same insight, just as exceptional comes up with the same plan, but start with $1MM, and they end up with $40MM. Capital naturally accumulates. And money paid on capital is not due to additional effort, or harder work, or producing more value. Additional money is paid because in the beginning they had additional capital. It's that simple.

The idea that there is a meritocracy in capital investing is completely false. In the split between capital and labor, it is heavily weighed towards capital for 45 years and we're seeing the result of that. And within capital markets it's heavily weighted towards those with capital.

The overall most prosperous time in the US society was the period where there was the least income inequality. And that was intentionally instituted.

There are two "natural" states of wealth distribution. No private ownership / property - which means we're essentially back to hunter / gatherer states. Or aristocracy / 1% and almost everyone else poor. That's essentially been the state of the world for a couple thousand years. If you want any other wealth distribution in society (and I think most people do, and like the concept of social mobility), you need to include methods of enforcing it against the natural state of ultra wealth concentration.

Democracy is not the natural state of the world. We chose to enforce democracy against the natural state. Income distributions are also not a natural state, if we want there to be anything more than aristocracy and serfdom we need to ensure that as well.

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is true, but only to a point. It's certainly true when the comparison is 10K to invest vs 10M, as liquidity of markets is not yet a concern and the investor with 10M is suddenly "accredited", can afford to pay a financial advisor, etc. However, at 10M vs 10B, the 10M investor is much better off. Liquidity becomes a real concern - there's just not that many assets or stocks that can support that kind of a…

> I think this is true, but only to a point. This comment here is kinda incredible at being "technically correct". The argument is "That's not always true, it only hold for 99.99% of the time". As in even if you're in the 99.99% OPs reasoning still holds. And yet so much time on this site is spent arguing on behalf of the .001% Ie people with way above $400 million in net worth. You realize you're talking about fewer…

Nice! My first internet fight. Exciting.

It's not just 3000 people. My comment is relevant for entities like pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance companies that have to allocate their float, conglomerates like Berkshire hathaway, and those "negligible" 3000 people that account for probably a quarter or higher of personal investment.

Re: What if incomes grew like GDP?

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The socialist "nanny state" democracies in europe have much lower wealth inequality, and much higher social mobility than the US. To me, it's a clear blueprint to follow.

The main difference is that the top 10% like software engineers and doctors earn much less and the bottom 50% earn more. So most people posting at HN would be much poorer while the top 0.1% are still very rich in Europe.

> So most people posting at HN would be much poorer

You have it completely backwards. Software Developer salaries would likely be higher, _yes higher_, in the US. The US has had very large GDP growth over the past 45+ years. But that's how much money has gone to capital vs labor since the 70s.

The clearest way to think of software engineer salaries is: median software engineer salary as a multiple of median country salary. US is 1.38, France is 1.21, Germany 1.33. [1] Overall our software salaries are proportionally no more or no less than expected based on median labor rate / salary in major European countries.

However, because all of the gains in wealth have gone to capital, overall salaries are actually suppressed. Salaries across the board in the US would be higher, if gains of the past ~45 years hadn't been siphoned off. Essentially if we had the same income distribution as we exited the 60s with, everyone today with a salary of . So that covers the vast majority of software engineers. Even more so if you remove the 20% Cost of Living bump due to being in Bay Area. So even most FANG employees would be making more if the US still had a normal income distribution. [2]

I think that's the largest thing people don't understand. Devaluing labor, devalues labor for everyone. Software engineering salaries are vastly underpaid, vs the revenue they bring in - it's incredibly skewed and goes to ownership / capital. It's half the mantra behind all of push for doing your own startups: working as labor in software you're being vastly undervalued. Might as well do the same thing and have a chance at ownership / capital. It's all the same issue.

1. http://swexperts.com/news/software-engineer-salaries-by-coun...

2. https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/10/a-25-trillion-question-wha...

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