Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#561

Post by beezle » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

SkyMarshal wrote: post #56

abhinavsharma wrote: post #21

This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditize…

>Apple is just about the only company with a similar ethos and enough money and patience to be a viable competitor and have a competitive brand known for quality. Mostly agree, though I suspect a few of the major car companies like Volkswagon/Audi and Toyota/Lexus are capable of this as well. But yes, Apple has the cash reserves to not just manufacture electric cars, but to build out the necessary infrastructure netw…

>and transform "dealer networks" into "maintenance networks".

People tend to overlook just how many service centers are available for the big three (about 10K), not even counting independent garages. Tesla has..500. How many will Apple have? If the Tesla service horror stories are anything to go by, I can only imagine what it would be like for an iCar once production ramps up.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#562

Post by vgchh » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

It will be an interesting dynamic. Clearly if anyone has the chops, it’s Apple. They have just started to topple Intel’s monopoly with M1. The company is poised to dominate the personal computing.

That being said Tesla is no slouch. It’s led by a maverick founder - someone who has shot astronauts to ISS, built electric cars and drilled big holes into the earth. Ironically he seems to be taking the position of Steve Jobs

It will be a mistake to discount either. If anything it’s two likely outcomes are:

- America will maintain leadership in innovation

- Consumers will benefit

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#563

Post by ksec » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:05 AM UTC

davidrm wrote: post #100

buzzerbetrayed wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I feel that Apple management, and its shareholders, have no idea what it means to build a car I feel like people pretend that building a car is way harder than it actually is in 2020. All the components to build a car are readily available. A person can buy the parts on their own and put them together in their garage. It isn't like they have to go get a pick axe and start mining ore to create everything from sc…

I work for a tier 1 EV supplier, I've spent 2 months in Hyundai's Namyang R&D center, several weeks at Aston Martin's facilities, and some others, you undersold it by A LOT. Ford, GM and other veterans on the industry have long lost their original spirit, just like any other company, but what they have is established processes and supply chain management, and that takes decades to do right. You can ship a 1st gen iPh…

>but what they have is established processes and supply chain management, and that takes decades to do right.

From my long time reading on HN, 99.99% of HN have absolutely zero visibility and knowledge on anything with Supply Chain.

I mean even the Web Industry and Programmers all jumped on to Cloud computing they dont have have the concept of "lead time" anymore.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#564

Post by nomeddie » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

the_arun wrote: post #531

m-ee wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked with ex Apple supply chain people, and they were very used to operating at massive scale and the leverage that came with it. This led to some some unhappy suppliers some of which walked because they felt we were being too demanding. I don't want to overgeneralize, some of the issue was likely the culture of this particular team, but I could definitely see growing pains as they move into a new vertical wit…

We need smart electric appliances from Apple at home - lights, washer/dryer, refrigerator, etc.,. We'll be controlled by Apple wherever we go :) Apple eyewear could even track how many times we flip our eyelids.

Let's hope Siri will evolve better than the auto correct on iOS in this instance to interface to all these appliances.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#565

Post by enos_feedler » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:07 AM UTC

ska wrote: post #478

fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll just say that the main benefit of a Tesla, besides driving and handling really nicely is that the electronics are actually good: it’s entertainment system isn’t a hacky afterthought; also, just plugging into the supercharger and walking away makes the whole “messing with payment methods” paradigm of gas stations seem obsolete.

Isn't this sort of an argument in favor of an apple car? With tesla the over all build quality for price range isn't great (they are getting better), but the software integration and UX is really good. Apple is really good at both those things, if it translates to cars that could be compelling.

Yes, I believe this. I was on the fence about a Tesla for years. Something just didn't sit right with the experience inside one. I don't feel that with a BMW, so I got a 3 year lease, specifically timed for when I think the Apple car will drop.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#566

Post by fiddlerwoaroof » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:11 AM UTC

kllrnohj wrote: post #558

fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll just say that the main benefit of a Tesla, besides driving and handling really nicely is that the electronics are actually good: it’s entertainment system isn’t a hacky afterthought; also, just plugging into the supercharger and walking away makes the whole “messing with payment methods” paradigm of gas stations seem obsolete.

> it’s entertainment system isn’t a hacky afterthought It's about as hacky an afterthought as you can possibly get, though? It's a giant tablet on a stand. Effective, yes, but also definitely a hacky afterthought, too. There's no attempt of any kind to integrate it into the lines or flow of the rest of the vehicle. And they still can't be bothered to put some basic physical switchgear in the thing. There's nothing ta…

I don’t know, the physical switches on the steering wheel do about 90% of what I need while driving.

Anyways, Tesla computer interface is so much nicer to work with than the system on my 2014 Honda Odyssey: the software there has all sorts of arbitrary limitations that makes things like “playing” music irritating. Plus, traditional car manufacturers do crazy things like treating the “navigation package” as a premium feature or whatever. Not to mention that the Tesla gets OTA updates regularly while I’m mostly stuck with whatever bugs or limitations my Honda had when it was built (unless I take it to a dealership and ask for the firmware to be updated.)

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#567

Post by WalterBright » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:14 AM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #487

WalterBright wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A touch screen requires looking at it, buttons do not. That is a fundamental difference, and I don't want a UI I have to look at while driving. I don't want a UI with modes on the touchscreen. More of needing to concentrate on the cursed screen instead of driving. Lastly, every touchscreen UI is fatally attracted to icons instead of words so I have to pull over and consult the 500 page manual to see what the wretched…

First, it’s not like everything is done on the screen. Blinkers, wipers, volume, cruise speed, skip track, horn, gear select, can all be physically controlled. The only thing that I’ve ever felt was a little distracting is climate control, because you’re adjusting individual degrees with a fairly small touch target. However it’s also a totally non-time critical adjustment. Defog/defrost is a 3-state toggle control so…

I regularly drive my ancient Bronco 2 and sometimes a newish car with the touch display. I spend less than a second glancing at any control on the Bronco. It's so bad on the touch display I sometimes have to pull over to figure out how to get the fracking defroster on. It's even impossible to tell if it is on or off, you just have to wait and stick your hand on the base of the windshield. In Seattle having a working defroster is "flight critical" as they say. It's not a joke, but the controls are a joke.

BTW, "defrost" is a verb, and pictures are for things, not verbs. So I never know which stupid icon means "defrost". Lack of verbs is why picture written languages evolve into phonetic alphabets. I predict in 20 years Apple will announce a great breakthrough in user interfaces - words!

rant, grumble, rant, grumble, harrumph

BTW, I have no idea what a defog control does that defrost doesn't.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#568

Post by fiddlerwoaroof » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:15 AM UTC

fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #566

kllrnohj wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it’s entertainment system isn’t a hacky afterthought It's about as hacky an afterthought as you can possibly get, though? It's a giant tablet on a stand. Effective, yes, but also definitely a hacky afterthought, too. There's no attempt of any kind to integrate it into the lines or flow of the rest of the vehicle. And they still can't be bothered to put some basic physical switchgear in the thing. There's nothing ta…

I don’t know, the physical switches on the steering wheel do about 90% of what I need while driving. Anyways, Tesla computer interface is so much nicer to work with than the system on my 2014 Honda Odyssey: the software there has all sorts of arbitrary limitations that makes things like “playing” music irritating. Plus, traditional car manufacturers do crazy things like treating the “navigation package” as a premium…

When I bought the car, I was pretty much a skeptic in multiple dimensions and intended to return it in the seven day window if I didn’t like it. It ended up being like my initial reaction to the iPhone only having a touchscreen: the car, to me at least, just feels right.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#569

Post by enos_feedler » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:20 AM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #352

balls187 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you driven Tesla and other comparable EV's? From my experience, Tesla's tech (I drive a VW) is ahead of their competition pretty handily. The new Ford Mustang Mach looks competitive, but even that is still at least 9 months away. The VW id4 EV is sold out, and they are taking pre-orders for the next batch. Tesla has first mover advantage when it comes to mass market EV's. It's not just cult of personality.

> first mover advantage Did you mean second? There actually can be a lot of advantage to being the second mover. Nissan had already sold 100000 units of the Leaf between 2010-2014, while Tesla had sold up to that point only 16k cars. Clearly, Tesla wasn't the first mass-market EV. Indeed, it seems obvious in hindsight that Tesla's success owed mainly to ignoring the mass market and selling very expensive cars at firs…

People forget the smartphone market before the iPhone came out. There was actually some pretty decent smartphones that looked like they came from the future. I remember dreaming about being able to buy a Nokia N95 with a touchscreen and pen. It actually wasn't that far off from what an iPhone does. From the N95 wiki:

"The N95's main competitors during its lifetime were the LG Prada, Apple's iPhone, Sony Ericsson's W950i and K850. The N95 managed to outsell its rivals. Despite Apple's much-hyped iPhone with its multi-touch technology, thin design and advanced web capabilities, the N95 had several key features against the iPhone, such as its camera with flash, video camera, Bluetooth file sharing, 3G and 3.5G connectivity, GPS, third-party applications and several other features."

Apple saw what everyone else was doing and triangulated something differentiated on what they know Apple users want. They will do the same thing with this car. It is much better to be Apple than to be Tesla at this point if your goal is to ship 100k's of cars. Most of Apple's target market for a car is still driving german cars. Apple has learned everything it didn't already know from Tesla, and can now execute on what it does know best to win. Tesla is a Nokia N95 that has the stock price of an iPhone. Short TSLA, long AAPL.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#570

Post by ksec » Tue, Dec 22, 2020, 5:23 AM UTC

kansface wrote: post #321

christophilus wrote: post #285

If I was an Apple shareholder (I guess I am, indirectly through Berkshire), this would piss me off. Apple is in a very good business. Cars are a terrible business. Just compare Apple’s margins to any car company. Also, it’s really hard to move into a business that is widely outside your core competency. It can be done, but the effort is huge, and I suspect the median track record is poor.

I'm a small time Apple shareholder and have the opposite reaction. Apple is sitting on 300 billion in cash - I expect them to do something with it. They need to move into some other market because their existing ones are tapped out. Cars are a great fit: 1. Big enough market for an investment of 10s of billions 2. Its international (quit a bit of that money is stuck overseas) 3. Making electric cars isn't too hard (s…

I think the Goal would be Uber, but with a fleet of Apple Cars. I still dont see how selling and servicing Apple Cars would work for Apple if it is sold as an originally car. That large investment and sunk cost would be a good use for its Cash. ( And it would be part of their Services Revenue ) Apple also gets to trial and gather Data with their current Map Data Collection vehicle.

The problem is there is nothing, absolutely zero indication that we can crack Level 5 self driving within next 5 years. It is always easy to get the first 80%, the last 20%, the small and minor details will often take as long if not longer than the first 80%. We have just arrived at the 80% point, and there is always the illusion of we are close to Self Driving Goal. And we are not.

And apart from that there are no indication as to how Apple is competing with Batteries. Tesla as a car manufacture may be easy to replicate, ( only on a relative scale, it is actually difficult to make cars in mass quantities, especially with Apple that demands perfection. Unlike Tesla ) but Tesla Battery is at least 4 - 5 years ahead of everyone else from both technological and manufacturing. And no have seems to have shown a plausible plan of how Apple is going to tackle this.