Viruses mutate constantly.
Vaccines target subsequences of amino acids on proteins which both variants most likely have.
Mark my words that this a non story/media sensationalism and will be out of the news in a few weeks.
New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
181–190 of 280 posts
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#182Very suspicious that this story breaks just as Boris needs to lock down the country over christmas. "everyone is going to hate me, quick think of something to blame.".... Eureka .... "There's a new virus strain, totally unforeseeable, don't blame me for the lock downs" Just sayin'
These days, it seems like everyone is "Just sayin'" some sort of nonsense conspiracy theory with no evidence. I wish people would stop sayin'.
These days everyone just blindly trusts the people in charge. I wish people would start questioning authority more.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
This should be the official position when communicating this information. There simply is not enough data at this point. I was really shocked to read German Minister statements saying the vacine is still effective for this variant. Sure theoretical the spike is majority unchanged but there is no evidence or data for a government official to make such an absolute statement.
The official message from the UK government when they announced concern about this new strain was "we have no evidence to suggest that the Pfizer vaccine is not just as effective against this new strain". Somehow that gets twisted by some people into "we believe the vaccine is just as effective against this new strain". I think it's party due to not wanting to appear to be doomsaying but also very misleading in terms…
Notice the word choice: “we have no evidence...” the answer is actually “we don’t know” because we haven’t studied it. There’s a term for this type of communication as it’s quite common but the name escapes me..
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, it's in other countries too eg Australia and Netherlands.
If may have been detected in Australia in returned travellers but it is not in Australia in the community. Yesterday Australia had 15 community acquired cases (yes, 15 in total, with a further 11 from international travel in hotel quarantine) in the country and a quarter of sydney is in lockdown due to it, the virus variant is an American strain.
Maybe but these variants can arise spontaneously as well, probably as a function of the immune response.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
Direct link to the thread where he explains why the evidence, although not conclusive, strongly supports a higher infectivity of the new variant: https://mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/13407169016101724...
This is a perfect example of mixing science and opinion, and we should be scolding "scientists" who do this without clarifying which is which, not lionizing them. The only definitively factual statement he makes is in the first tweet: "One of the key questions about the new variant (B.1.1.7) is whether there is conclusive evidence that it is more transmissible. I don't think we are absolutely certain yet" Everything…
I don't wish to veer into ad hominem arguments, but it is worth noting that the UK government must be very relieved to be able to associate the new lockdown rules with the new strain of the virus.
By pointing to an unpredictable external factor they can justify the apparent U-turn in their policy, while also not having to point the finger at any potential voters who may not have been following the rules well enough.
Whether the government's political needs have an effect on how scientists interpret or represent their findings is something I only have a hypothesis about.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also the UK detected this new strain right next to the Dover Crossing - Isn't it pretty likely it came from mainland Europe and was detected at our port rather than we coincidentally had a mutation right on the border?
Looks like it's probably the opposite. > The variant can be found across the UK, except Northern Ireland, but it is heavily concentrated in London, the South East and eastern England. Cases elsewhere in the country do not seem to have taken off. > Data from Nextstrain, which has been monitoring the genetic codes of the viral samples around the world, suggest cases in Denmark and Australia have come from the UK. The N…
Wales was reporting this variant as seen in all regions on Sunday, hence the lock down.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#187The talk of the virus potentially being on a path to vaccine escape is very worrying. Sounds like we might end up in a situation where we have seasonal COVID like we do with the flu :(
That was the endpoint regardless. Almost no one thinks this is going to be a smallpox situation where the vaccine is so effective that the virus gets eradicated. Almost certainly, covid is going to turn into an endemic disease just like everything else. Remember: all diseases were novel once! But most of the population will be immune, so outbreaks will be limited and spread slowly. Ideally that immunity will come via…
COVID has a replication checker so it will never mutate as fast as the flu.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#188My worry is this: If you take a population where a virus is widespread and start vaccinating then the likelihood for a mutation that escapes the vaccination is much higher, had you instead taken a population where the virus not widespread and vaccinated there. Is this correct? UK has a widespread ongoing outbreak and is the first nation to deliver vaccinations at a big scale.
If "normal" variant is more virulent, it should spread faster than other variants and will be dominant. If you vaccinate which eradicates "normal" variant than those less virulent strain which may be vaccine resistant will get opportunity to spread. That is if such variants exist. Problem is that there is no alternative. You either vaccinate or let it run through your population. With IFR of 0.5-1% that is really har…
> With IFR of 0.5-1% that is really hard choice to make.
I'm getting the sense that there's little public appetite for waiting another 6-9 months for a new vaccine. This might change as more people get the virus, but there's a good chance 10-15% of Americans have already had or currently have the virus, so if that didn't scare people already, I'm not sure if another month of full ICUs will.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd be staying open when I enquired on Saturday evening. I mean, sure they sell food, but really - I'm unsure how vital to survival artisanal cheese and pasta is! Let's not repeat the mistakes of the first lockdown. If you close down too many places, all that causes is everyone cramming into the same few places still open, causing s…
In the march/april stage of the pandemic, I chose to shop at such "shi-shi" places exclusively because a) there were no lineups, b) their non-frozen supply chain meant they had to sell meat or it would rot, c) they were owned by people with families in the neighbourhood/city, and d) the higher prices kept out hoarders, panic buyers, and the mentally ill. On the last point, there was almost always some psycho causing…
Not addressing your main points, but that is a seriously prejudiced view of people struggling with mental illness. Mentally ill people aren’t “psychos”, many people in all walks of life struggle with anxiety, depression or something else. That’s not to say violent people don’t have underlying mental health issues. It’s quite an outdated view that mentally ill people are distinct from “normal” people, and aren’t just people who’ve suffered trauma. What happens if you find yourself dealing with these issues, are you going to shame yourself into not seeking treatment?
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#190I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…
> We don't know whether we can even stop the growth
I think extreme lockdown measures could, but they'd almost have to be indefinite, and there's no appetite for that.