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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#71

Post by oli5679 »

LatteLazy wrote: post #66
gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

Citymapper mobility index is quite interesting for quantifying level of lockdown.

https://citymapper.com/cmi/london

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#72

Post by LatteLazy »

lol768 wrote: post #67
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased? It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest. They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too. The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were…

I have to be careful I don't wander into conspiracy theories but...

I'm fed up because so many people flout the rules with no consequences. I suspect that the lack of consequences is intentional. If everyone flours the rules, the economic hit will be smaller and Bojo can claim he did something and its not his fault no one listened. The government have created a situation where the only logical action for normal people is business as usual, that means large excess deaths, and the government has plausible deniability. Whoops.

/RantAndParanoia

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#73

Post by simonbarker87 »

lol768 wrote: post #67
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased? It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest. They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too. The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were…

There was a decent drop in cases in November from what I can see. You’re right though, the first lock down felt very different.

Sadly the rules are laxer than they should be but the government can’t enforce the rules effectively so are putting in enough grey-area that people can sort of decide for themselves.

Sadly people are very short term focussed and unable to make the most of the situation and instead complain and go about their normal lives with just enough changes that they “feel like they’re doing their bit”.

I love the gym but the move to “keep gyms open” was the best example of people not really getting it and being sad that their toys had been taken away.

The moto in our hose at the moment is “just because you can doesn’t mean you should”

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#74

Post by guscost »

Based on the precedent of all other endemic human coronaviruses, there is reason to guess that the winning mutations will be less dangerous. This is also consistent with theory:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/

> By far, the most widely studied trade-off involves transmission and virulence (Anderson and May, 1982; Frank, 1996; Alizon et al. 2009).

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#75

Post by jkinudsjknds »

detritus wrote: post #70
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

I don't know if I agree that a restaurant selling artisinal cheeses should be held to different standards than the lowest common denominator of nutrient gruel restauranteers.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#76

Post by makomk »

imeron wrote: post #27
makomk wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems the answer is that we don't know if it's spread yet. To quote the ECDC's briefing, "However, most EU/EEA countries sequence much smaller proportions of virus isolates than the UK, so ongoing circulation of this variant outside of the UK cannot be excluded". https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SAR... Basically, the UK is just better set up to detect variants like this than a lot of other…

https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... If this chart is true EU countries announcing the closing borders the last couple of days is waaay to late to prevent the spread of the new strain in Europe.

Yeah, all the evidence seems to point to the border closures being a stupid, counterproductive attempt to close the stable doors after the horse has bolted and maybe shoot the messenger in the process. Unfortunately, there seems to be a bit of a push here in the UK to spin this as a necessary and inevitable measure that the government should have anticipated, including the closure of the border to road freight - which I think is a siginificant escalation compared to the previous EU border closures - for, basically, Brexit-related partistan political reasons.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#77

Post by fsh »

gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

Without proper statistical analysis and epidemiological modelling this is nothing more than an anecdote. The last twelve months should really have taught us not to trust those.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#78

Post by twic »

jhrmnn wrote: post #14
Tycho wrote: post #2

Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?

AFAIK, this strand is different because of the number of mutations. See figure 2 here https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisati...

This is a really good report on the new strain, and I urge everyone to read it.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#79

Post by fsh »

raadore wrote: post #65
jsnell wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not just about there being correlation between the variant appearing, and there being a new wave. That is a pretty weak data point by itself. We have more evidence and everything so far is pointing in the same direction. The big deal to me is that this variant is muscling out others in sequencing (+ PCR tests which by coincidence can tell the difference between this variant and the previously dominant ones),…

On dec 10 WHO released a statement on their website admitting that PCR tests are faulty, will detect anything we want them to detect and therefore medical staff need to look for symptoms which basically means you’re sick if you have symptoms. https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not... As a scientist that information tells me that all cases have to be considered faulty since the foundation is faul…

The statement you linked to says no such thing.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#80

Post by adwww »

detritus wrote: post #70
LatteLazy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

Re the deli and other quasi essential shops, it would seem unfair if they closed when you can still buy your fancy cheese and olives in a supermarket.
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