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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#61

Post by jghn »

maest wrote: post #40
occamrazor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct link to the thread where he explains why the evidence, although not conclusive, strongly supports a higher infectivity of the new variant: https://mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/13407169016101724...

Are there any non-twitter sources available? I can't access that website. Also, I doubt twitter is the place where that information should live long-term anyway.

I did see him mention on twitter the other day that he was going to be on a BBC segment talking about this, so there could be video archives on that front

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#64

Post by stubbedtoe »

gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

For those interested in looking at the raw data, https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map is a useful visualisation of cases by region, over time.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#65

Post by raadore »

jsnell wrote: post #51
sradman wrote: post #45

VUI – 202012/01 on Wikipedia [1]: > The first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020 (VUI – 202012/01), also known as lineage B.1.1.7, is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The variant was first detected in the United Kingdom in October 2020 from a sample taken the previous month, and it quickly began to spread by mid-December. It is correlated with a significant increase in the rate of CO…

But it's not just about there being correlation between the variant appearing, and there being a new wave. That is a pretty weak data point by itself. We have more evidence and everything so far is pointing in the same direction. The big deal to me is that this variant is muscling out others in sequencing (+ PCR tests which by coincidence can tell the difference between this variant and the previously dominant ones),…

On dec 10 WHO released a statement on their website admitting that PCR tests are faulty, will detect anything we want them to detect and therefore medical staff need to look for symptoms which basically means you’re sick if you have symptoms.

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not...

As a scientist that information tells me that all cases have to be considered faulty since the foundation is faulty. The results cannot be trusted.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#66

Post by LatteLazy »

gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they already closed and childcare is still running.

They've basically just shut restaurants. That's the only change I can see...

I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased?

Perhaps a move transmissible strain will force real action?

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#67

Post by lol768 »

LatteLazy wrote: post #66
gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

> I've posted elsewhere that my cynical view of the UK gov approach is that they are talking tough and doing nothing. So maybe I'm biased?

It's felt like this with all of the tiers to be honest.

They just don't go far enough and the populace is fed up with taking much heed of the rules too.

The November "lockdown" felt very, very different to March when the roads etc were quiet - and it actually felt like people were taking this seriously.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#68

Post by bigbizisverywyz »

maxerickson wrote: post #9
Tycho wrote: post #2

Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?

Not really. Thousands of variations have ben sequenced, the notable thing here is the (potentially) faster spread.

Whilst the consensus seems to be that this variant is spreading faster than other variants - is there any information on exactly how it does so?

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#69

Post by sradman »

raadore wrote: post #65
jsnell wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not just about there being correlation between the variant appearing, and there being a new wave. That is a pretty weak data point by itself. We have more evidence and everything so far is pointing in the same direction. The big deal to me is that this variant is muscling out others in sequencing (+ PCR tests which by coincidence can tell the difference between this variant and the previously dominant ones),…

On dec 10 WHO released a statement on their website admitting that PCR tests are faulty, will detect anything we want them to detect and therefore medical staff need to look for symptoms which basically means you’re sick if you have symptoms. https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not... As a scientist that information tells me that all cases have to be considered faulty since the foundation is faul…

Not relevant. Variants are detected using full sequencing.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#70

Post by detritus »

LatteLazy wrote: post #66
gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

I don't disagree, but it would be really nice if we could classify lockdowns better. The original lockdown furloughed a LOT of workers, closed schools and closed virtually all shops. Today's "super tier 4+ lockdown" doesn't seem to apply to shops at all (my local shops were all open this morning, is wrapping paper really an "essential"?). Workers are mostly going in. Schools that have remained open unless they alread…

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open.

Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters.

I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd be staying open when I enquired on Saturday evening. I mean, sure they sell food, but really - I'm unsure how vital to survival artisanal cheese and pasta is!

Bluntly, without the sincere threat of fines or whatever, no action will be taken. UK-dwellers' sense of entitlement to 'freedoms' seems drastically diluted compared to what I witnessed on the continent a few months back, when I was able.

We deserve everything we get.

- ed, whups - clearly I meant something like 'drastically inflated', not 'diluted'.

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