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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#41

Post by jsnell »

raphaelj wrote: post #11
spuz wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes variants occur all the time but they don't tend to become dominant. This variant went from 30% of all infections in November to 60% three weeks later. In order for a given variant to supplant all the others and become dominant it must have some characteristics that make it more transmissible. That is why they are particularly worried about this variant.

Could it still be that this variant is as infectious as others, but just happens to be the dominant one in the regions where the virus circulates the most, for reasons that have nothing to do with the genetics of the virus? London and the South East are some of the densest populated areas in the UK, and one could expect exponential growth of infections there while other less populated areas could manage to keep their…

Look at the prevalence graph in the article, you can see that the new variant has been gradually taking over the turf from the other ones. This cannot be explained by just the founder effect unlike most other cases, since the prevalence was high to start with. It cannot be explained away by a single super-spreader event, since a single event will just cause a single step-change. This has been a continuous process.

It could be random chance or a selective advantage, but then it comes down to just a modeling exercise. How likely is it that this could happen by chance? And it appears quite unlikely: instead the best way to explain the data is a significantly increased transmission.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#43

Post by gns24 »

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different.

Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can even stop the growth. During the last lockdown schools remained open; I suspect that it may be necessary to close them in order to just stop the growth. A significant reduction in cases looks impossible.

This strain has probably already spread to tens of other countries. Every country which is just about holding things together, whatever their strategy, is going to struggle with a significantly more transmissible variant of the virus.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#44

Post by iso1631 »

maest wrote: post #40
occamrazor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct link to the thread where he explains why the evidence, although not conclusive, strongly supports a higher infectivity of the new variant: https://mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/13407169016101724...

Are there any non-twitter sources available? I can't access that website. Also, I doubt twitter is the place where that information should live long-term anyway.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1340716901610172416.html

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#45

Post by sradman »

VUI – 202012/01 on Wikipedia [1]:

> The first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020 (VUI – 202012/01), also known as lineage B.1.1.7, is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The variant was first detected in the United Kingdom in October 2020 from a sample taken the previous month, and it quickly began to spread by mid-December. It is correlated with a significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infection in England; this increase is thought to be at least partly because of mutation N501Y inside the spike glycoprotein's receptor-binding domain, which is needed for binding to ACE2 in human cells.

Correlation does not equal causation. Most of the northern hemisphere is experiencing a significant increase in cases, i.e., a second wave. It has not yet been established whether this variant exhibits a unique pathogenesis.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/VUI_–_202012/01

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#46

Post by plutonorm »

Very suspicious that this story breaks just as Boris needs to lock down the country over christmas.

"everyone is going to hate me, quick think of something to blame.".... Eureka .... "There's a new virus strain, totally unforeseeable, don't blame me for the lock downs"

Just sayin'

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#47

Post by oneeyedpigeon »

plutonorm wrote: post #46

Very suspicious that this story breaks just as Boris needs to lock down the country over christmas. "everyone is going to hate me, quick think of something to blame.".... Eureka .... "There's a new virus strain, totally unforeseeable, don't blame me for the lock downs" Just sayin'

Why did he need to lockdown the country other than because of this? Given that he said 3 days earlier that this would be tantamount to "cancelling Christmas", and he now looks like a fool and a hypocrite for ridiculing the leader of the opposition over it, what possible benefit does he have to gain?

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#48

Post by plutonorm »

jjgreen wrote: post #18

There's been a certain amount of public arguments between the government in the UK (yay Christmas) and scientists (boo Christmas). I really hope that this is not a tactical exaggeration used by the latter to get their way that's got way out of hand ...

It seems to me to be possible. I'm undecided either way. Also, isn't it suspicious that anyone who has suggested this is downvoted into oblivion/flagged?

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#49

Post by SifJar »

lucideer wrote: post #4
zpeti wrote: post #3

There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now

No answers on most of those Qs, but the messaging on (2) "Will the vaccines basically be voided by this?" is that no, vaccines should still be effective. I'm not sure how they can no that without restarting extensive trials, but as a sibling commenter points out, viruses mutate constantly so I guess dealing with variants is pretty common when it comes to vaccination.

My understanding is as long as the variant has the same spike protein, vaccines "should" remain effective. So while trials haven't been done yet to verfiy the vaccines are still effective, I'm assuming the spike protein has been observed to be the same so there's no reason to suggest vaccines wouldn't be effective.

EDIT: Actually, sounds like a couple of the mutations are in the spike protein and there is some evidence of reduced antibody effectiveness against the mutated version.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#50

Post by plutonorm »

oneeyedpigeon wrote: post #47
plutonorm wrote: post #46

Very suspicious that this story breaks just as Boris needs to lock down the country over christmas. "everyone is going to hate me, quick think of something to blame.".... Eureka .... "There's a new virus strain, totally unforeseeable, don't blame me for the lock downs" Just sayin'

Why did he need to lockdown the country other than because of this? Given that he said 3 days earlier that this would be tantamount to "cancelling Christmas", and he now looks like a fool and a hypocrite for ridiculing the leader of the opposition over it, what possible benefit does he have to gain?

"Why did he need to lockdown the country other than because of this?"

Imagine for a moment that the current case number was entirely predictable. i.e. it is due to Boris ignoring scientific advice, believing he knows better. So the need to close for christmas is a result of not locking down sooner and harder. Now due to that failure to sell the hard truth, people wont be able to meet over christmas and he wants to find a way of shifting the blame.

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