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Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

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Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#41

Post by ksec »

zaroth wrote: post #19
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

You’re trying to value a company without looking at debt, so you’re missing the big picture. Total Debt: VW. $237B GM. $192B Toyota. $190B Ford. $155B Daimler.$108B Nissan. $42B BMW. $80B Honda. $42B So your market cap analysis missed ~$1 trillion of enterprise value in your comparison set. Simply put, the stock market cap is the total company value minus the debt. Tesla debt by comparison is $14 billion. All those c…

Thank You. Are there any easy way to simply get this Data without manually looking up each Stock's balance sheet?

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#42

Post by zaroth »

ksec wrote: post #41
zaroth wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re trying to value a company without looking at debt, so you’re missing the big picture. Total Debt: VW. $237B GM. $192B Toyota. $190B Ford. $155B Daimler.$108B Nissan. $42B BMW. $80B Honda. $42B So your market cap analysis missed ~$1 trillion of enterprise value in your comparison set. Simply put, the stock market cap is the total company value minus the debt. Tesla debt by comparison is $14 billion. All those c…

Thank You. Are there any easy way to simply get this Data without manually looking up each Stock's balance sheet?

Basically that’s what I had to do, but on macrotrends.net

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#44

Post by gamblor956 »

pazimzadeh wrote: post #25
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

What your analysis is missing is the profit margin of each car maker. Never mind market share, what is Tesla's profit share? Does someone know this?

Tesla's profit share is small enough that it is a rounding error. It is not the Apple of the automotive world.

Quarterly profits for the most recent quarter (Q3 for most companies, Q2 for Honda): Toyota: $4.6 billion. Honda: $4 billion. GM: $4 billion. VW: $3.8 billion. Ford: $2.4 billion. Fiat: $1.4 million (not a typo, that is an m there.). In all cases, these profits were below their 2019 quarterly profits for the same quarter. Total of approximately 18.8 billion.

Tesla: $331 million, or approximately 1.5% of the Q3 profit share.

(Note that Hyundai had a loss and so is excluded from the profit share calculation. In all cases, these are global numbers. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34602700/auto-sales-profi.... For all automakers except Tesla and Fiat, profits are related to the sale of automobiles. Fiat's profit is related to a special one-time accounting event, and Tesla's profit, as with all of its previous quarterly profits, relates to the sale of credits to other automakers; Tesla has yet to have a profitable quarter based on the sale of vehicles.)

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#45

Post by Consultant32452 »

mattnewton wrote: post #16
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other companies are no where near developing on their own and will likely have to license. Tesla investors are betting that a lot of the ICE based car expertise will be worth just pennies on the dollar if the shift to electric cars happens en masse.

Tesla isn't just a car manufacturer. Solar, batteries, charging network, car dealership, self driving tech...

What's the market cap of a gas station chain comparable in scale to the Tesla charging network?

What's the market cap for however many Ford dealerships it would take to match Tesla's sales capacity?

Rinse repeat for every industry Tesla is in.

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#46

Post by ashtonkem »

shyn3 wrote: post #21
ashtonkem wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way for the stock price to be reasonable is if Tesla completely replaces all of the listed car companies combined. That is not realistic, no matter what you think of Tesla’s products.

I think they will all die because they are too far to innovate it's why I finally bought shares after the split [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484

Betting that every single one of those car companies will die is a wildly risky bet. One can believe that Tesla might replace one of them, but all of them? Be reasonable.

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#47

Post by jeffbee »

abc_lisper wrote: post #14
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

You could have said the same thing about Apple 12 years ago.

Apple 12 years ago was only worth $50 billion. At the time, Apple had higher revenues (~40 billion dollars a year) and way higher margins. They made $14 billion gross profits in the year 2008, in 2008 dollars, while Tesla will have gross profits of only $6 billion 2020 dollars this year.

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#48

Post by [deleted] »

zaroth wrote: post #19
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

You’re trying to value a company without looking at debt, so you’re missing the big picture. Total Debt: VW. $237B GM. $192B Toyota. $190B Ford. $155B Daimler.$108B Nissan. $42B BMW. $80B Honda. $42B So your market cap analysis missed ~$1 trillion of enterprise value in your comparison set. Simply put, the stock market cap is the total company value minus the debt. Tesla debt by comparison is $14 billion. All those c…

[deleted]

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#49

Post by aminozuur »

pdog wrote: post #36

"Don't tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game If you're convinced Tesla is vastly overpriced, you should prove it by shorting the stock or buying put options. Betting against Elon Musk has been a terrible move up until now, but if you really think the stock is overvalued, you're probably better off simply not owning it. If you're still concerned about…

To short succesfully, you have to convince a large portion investors that the price is too high. In current market circumstances that's tough to do, even if you were fundamentally right.

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#50

Post by statguy »

zaroth wrote: post #19
sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

You’re trying to value a company without looking at debt, so you’re missing the big picture. Total Debt: VW. $237B GM. $192B Toyota. $190B Ford. $155B Daimler.$108B Nissan. $42B BMW. $80B Honda. $42B So your market cap analysis missed ~$1 trillion of enterprise value in your comparison set. Simply put, the stock market cap is the total company value minus the debt. Tesla debt by comparison is $14 billion. All those c…

Tesla sells less than 1% of the vehicles that these companies sell combined. Are you seriously suggesting that Tesla production will increase by 100x within a decade? Even if we assume that 100% of the vehicles sold in a decade are electric (highly unlikely), the majority of the increase is likely to come from the other companies. They are not going to sit still and let Tesla devour them.
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