31–40 of 75 posts
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1340073777573539840...
That's a lot of shares trading hands and its got alot of optionality coming due.
Remember that stocks usually drop right after they are added to the index as the arbs tend to over shoot and then get out quick once their even has happened.
Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…
What your analysis is missing is the profit margin of each car maker. Never mind market share, what is Tesla's profit share? Does someone know this?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other companies are no where near developing on their own and will likely have to license. Tesla investors are betting that a lot of the ICE based car expertise will be worth just pennies on the dollar if the shift to electric cars happens en masse.
> and will likely have to license There are already a dozen other electric models on the streets. Why should they have to license from Tesla? The electric engine part of the vehicles is actually not that hard - it's the battery that is complicated and Tesla doesn't even produce the batteries in their cars. That's done by Panasonic. VW, Toyota, Nissan have supply chain management under control, they don't need to lear…
Patents last 20 years, and it's not unusual for 5 of those to past between filing and the invention being turned into a usable product that hits the market.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think they will all die because they are too far to innovate it's why I finally bought shares after the split [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25214484
Or maybe you're trying to rationalize your investment thesis after buying into the stock. - Sincerely, a TSLA hodler since summer 2019, when I bought my first car, a Tesla. I'll be holding the stock I have, but I don't think traditional car companies are going away any time soon. On the contrary, I'm thinking of getting a Taycan, a BMW or some other EV car. Tesla isn't overpriced per se, but once the spigot of cheap…
Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…
Think of it like a house. If you pay me $200K for my house plus assume my $300K mortgage, then you say that the value of my house was $500K.
When comparing values of companies, use the "enterprise value" metric, not the "market cap" metric. Enterprise value metrics will still show an overpriced Tesla, just slightly less overpriced.
If you're convinced Tesla is vastly overpriced, you should prove it by shorting the stock or buying put options.
Betting against Elon Musk has been a terrible move up until now, but if you really think the stock is overvalued, you're probably better off simply not owning it. If you're still concerned about its inclusion in the S&P 500, you can buy an S&P 500 index fund and short just enough Tesla stock to exclude it, or buy a different index fund that doesn't include it.
Everything in Economics/Business/Transactions can be thought of as having two separate dimensions:
1) Intrinsic Value
2) Perceptual Value (that is, all value that is not intrinsic)
We might call #2 "Speculative Value" or value that can change relative to outside circumstances or conditions, and #1 value that cannot so easily change, perhaps "Fixed Value" or "Constant Value".
Now, if your idea that Tesla stock is overpriced -- well, I would politely submit that "the market thinks otherwise".
The market, at the time a measurement is taken, represents the exact parity value of the Intrinsic and Perceptual (at that point in time) values, or the constant (underlying) and varying (speculative) values combined.
The market is always exactly correct when it makes a price determination, at the exact point in time when that price determination was made.
In other words, if you know the fixed value of something (e.g., company earnings and projected profits over the next 20 years), you can figure out the varying, speculative value of something by simple subtraction of that from the market price.
Thus you can determine that Tesla, at this point in time, has a huge amount of speculative value.
Maybe your bet is that Tesla is going to go down in the future, that some of that speculative value will be lost, and maybe that's true, but to advance a personal opinion against a market in terms of determinating the speculative value of something at the present point in time is foolhardy, because by definition the market is always right, because it's always the best measure of that speculative value.
Now, there are other factors.
One important factor is how much money is being injected or taken out of the money supply. When a lot of money is put in -- then stock prices naturally rise. That's because in addition to the intrinsic and speculative values of a stock, one must also consider a stock's value relative to the money supply.
A positive earning stock should (if all other economic factors were equal, but they aren't) rise naturally when more money enters the money supply (it isn't rising, it's keeping pace with inflation minimally, and maximally, it's outstripping the inflation curve.)
Opinion: Tesla may rise for a few years to come... but watch out(!) when when there's less money in the money supply...
...Although, when that happens, Tesla's (and other similarly high-performing stock) might be the equivalent of the proverbial "canary in a coal mine" -- that is, a marker or warning of things to come...
"Don't tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game If you're convinced Tesla is vastly overpriced, you should prove it by shorting the stock or buying put options. Betting against Elon Musk has been a terrible move up until now, but if you really think the stock is overvalued, you're probably better off simply not owning it. If you're still concerned about…
Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…
What your analysis is missing is the profit margin of each car maker. Never mind market share, what is Tesla's profit share? Does someone know this?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I too think tesla is overvalued, but your comparison to ICE companies strikes me as missing that they have fundamentally different technologies those other companies are no where near developing on their own and will likely have to license. Tesla investors are betting that a lot of the ICE based car expertise will be worth just pennies on the dollar if the shift to electric cars happens en masse.
> and will likely have to license There are already a dozen other electric models on the streets. Why should they have to license from Tesla? The electric engine part of the vehicles is actually not that hard - it's the battery that is complicated and Tesla doesn't even produce the batteries in their cars. That's done by Panasonic. VW, Toyota, Nissan have supply chain management under control, they don't need to lear…