London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain • Hacker News Board

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#421

Post by throwaway2245 » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:06 PM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #167

lefrenchy wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not even remotely comparable though. 1,000 cases a day and less than 1,000 total reported deaths. It puts Western nations to absolute shame.

That's not the point. My only point is their r0 has been above 1 since early November. They went from 100 news cases per day to 1000 in a month and a half. That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus."

> That isn't "succeed[ing] at containing this virus."

I would assume this is a new generation (new wild-type) which has been reintroduced from the West. As such, Korea did succeed at containing the virus: their only problem is that Western countries didn't bother and made the problem magnitudes more difficult for everyone.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#422

Post by throwaway2245 » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:10 PM UTC

oxfordmale wrote: post #47

sideshowb wrote: post #34

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

Apparently the new strain is not scary enough to enforce the travel ban in and out of London by law. At the moment the travel ban is advisory only. Make up your own mind.

I'm not convinced that enforcement particularly matters. When the government advises people to stay at home, most people modify their behaviour.

Fining people could arguably create a higher risk, as people would feel they had permission to break the ban if they accept a low risk of being caught and fined, and enforcement would involve more interaction between strangers.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#423

Post by throwaway2245 » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:13 PM UTC

oxfordmale wrote: post #94

spuz wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for clarifying. I don't think that's the correct interpretation though. The government advice for tier 4 says: > You must not leave or be outside of your home except for where you have a specific purpose, or a ‘reasonable excuse’ > If you live in a tier 4 area, you must stay at home. You must not leave your home to travel unless for work, education or other legally permitted reasons So when Boris says "should"…

You might be right, in any case the restrictions are not enforced immediately resulting in the bleeding obvious: (steady stream of traffic leaving London: https://twitter.com/Keyboar58668342/status/13403788744594022...

Isn't that single webcam image consistent with essential workers? The trucks are surely not banned; and it's understandable that people have to go home on a Friday night.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#424

Post by LatteLazy » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:31 PM UTC

LatteLazy wrote: post #59

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

[Replying to my own comment]

Just been to the Tesco at Roneo Corner in Havering (1 borough further out than Barking and Dageham).

38 customers without a mask inside the store (excludes kids even teens, excludes anyone with a pointless visor, excludes anyone with a green and yellow lanyard which means they're exempt).

8 members of staff without a mask (again, excluding as above).

Highlights include:

* a woman in Islamic dress with a head scarf and eye veil, she had covered every inch of her skin EXCEPT for her mouth and nose.

* a staff member with a managers badge and no mask

* a parent who took off his mask and gave it to his baby to play with once he was inside

* an aisle with about 40 people crammed in looking at the discount section with a staff member with no mask holding a "2m social distance" sign and getting in people's way, but not stopping them or asking anyone to move on!?

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#425

Post by morlockabove » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:58 PM UTC

throwaway2245 wrote: post #418

morlockabove wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're acting based on your priors and new evidence. You have a high prior for police stops existing in general, and a low one for people randomly lying about it, so a stranger saying there's one that way is compelling evidence to you. You have a high prior on the existence of treausure nearvy, but a low one of the existence of treasure worth the effort of finding, so me telling you you could get rich quick isn't com…

This no longer has anything to do with 'burden of proof', which I continue to reject as a concept (maybe you are agreeing with me?).

I'm saying you're taking as if it were some sort of ontological model or normative rule of discourse, when really it's a verbalisation of a heuristic you've already admitted to using. You're using something like 'burden of proof' as an algorithm, even if you consciously reject it as a verbal tool.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#426

Post by throwaway2245 » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 5:02 PM UTC

morlockabove wrote: post #425

throwaway2245 wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This no longer has anything to do with 'burden of proof', which I continue to reject as a concept (maybe you are agreeing with me?).

I'm saying you're taking as if it were some sort of ontological model or normative rule of discourse, when really it's a verbalisation of a heuristic you've already admitted to using. You're using something like 'burden of proof' as an algorithm, even if you consciously reject it as a verbal tool.

That's not a 'burden of proof'.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#427

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 6:07 PM UTC

raarts wrote: post #407

shash7 wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For context, that's in another state and the number has rose from 0 > 35 so its still manageable. You can't even remotely compare that to UK.

I don't think I was, but every journey starts with the first step ;-). I think the Australian confidence of 'having eradicated covid' is misplaced. You can only eradicate a virus if you do that worldwide, and given viruses' capability of mutating, I think that's an unattainable goal.

[deleted]

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#428

Post by mafribe » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 6:19 PM UTC

mafribe wrote: post #301

beaker52 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a Londoner. Whilst I've observed greater mask compliance, shops, cafes, bars and restaurants have been packed. I've been to bars freely serving alcohol with no need to buy food, just like the old days. Definitely seeing rule breaking. And I've had a friend who wanted to beat the travel restrictions by leaving London before midnight. That's rule beating. I see it everywhere. A PSA because it's important: I can pr…

Londoner here too and I agree with your observations about compliance. Tons of rule breaking. The dance studio next to my dwelling has been running popular dance classes as recently as last night. I think it's mostly an age thing: the under 20s almost completely ignore covid restrictions, and so does a substantial part of the under 30s. I can't even blame them as it doesn't affect them. And they mostly lack an unders…

Londoner here too and I agree with your observations about compliance. Tons of rule breaking. The dance studio next to my dwelling has been running popular dance classes as recently as last night. I think it's mostly an age thing: the under 20s almost completely ignore covid restrictions, and so does a substantial part of the under 30s. I can't even blame them as it doesn't affect them. And they mostly lack an understanding of the concept of asymptomatic carrier. Regarding your PSA: In the mean time Taiwan has not had a quarantine at all, and has been free of (internal) Covid for over 200 days. Other SE-Asian countries are all doing very well, Japan for example does not have quarantine either.

European lock-down policies have been a monumental failure. Not good enough to stop the spread. But ruining the economy (and everybody's fun). It is truly remarkable that Europeans agree with being locked away for nearly one year now with little to show for, while other societies achieve much better results with different, and less drastic measures. No curiosity at all, it seems, even to understand why Taiwan, Japan and other countries succeed! SMH

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#429

Post by Exmoor » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 6:26 PM UTC

Felony_Fred wrote: post #365

exmadscientist wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Haven't been on one to verify use by ridership, or to see what the driver's reaction to noncompliant riders is. Compliance is very high (>95%?), but the people who do not comply are basically the same people who were problems in the Before Times: belligerent, mentally ill, or both. The drivers almost always let them get away with it, again just as in the Before Times, probably because it's a risk to even interact w…

> the people who do not comply are basically the same people who were problems in the Before Times: belligerent, mentally ill, or both. Or maybe they're one of 12,943 medical and public health scientists who signed the Great Barrington Declaration [0]. [0] ; https://gbdeclaration.org/

The declaration you linked seems to be more about lockdown policy and doesn't even mention masks.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#430

Post by dboreham » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 6:37 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #304

dboreham wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. Here in deepest Republican middle America mask wearing by _staff_ in supermarkets is universal. Customers around 90% if you count "nose-slingers" as non compliant. Pretty much nobody just swanning around with no mask these days. Costco has heavy mask enforcement -- they will hunt down and eject anyone with their nose out. Where masks are not worn here is in smaller family owned businesses. Some have notices requ…

Yup, same. I live in Idaho, and you’ve got to be out in the boonies before mask compliance for the customer base falls below 50%. I’ve not seen a single staff member not wearing a mask so far. But I’ve also avoided stores that culturally would be anti-mask, to be fair. I’d probably have a different take if I’d visited say, a gun store.

For gun stores, auto repair shops and the like, I adopt the approach that supposedly it takes 15 minutes of close exposure to become infected (obviously probabilistically), so if I absolutely must visit one of those places I aim to be in and out in less than 10 minutes.