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London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

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Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#381

Post by DenisM »

addicted wrote: post #368
bjourne wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still no evidence showing that mask usage reduces spread. Worse, people think that mask usage entails fail-safe protection. Like condoms against pregnancy. I know of IT-companies that enforces mask usage in their offices but still does not allow employees to work from home .

This is false. There’s a lot of evidence that mask usage reduces spread. The evidence ranges from the fact that masks almost certainly capture water droplets which are supposed to be major carriers of the virus to the fact that there is correlation between countries that wear masks having reduced spreads compare to ones that don’t. In fact, a recent study compared districts in the same state, grouping them by whether…

> evidence ranges from the fact that masks almost certainly capture water droplets

That’s not evidence, that’s a hypothesis. And in its current form it can be empirically disproved:

Some masks allow droplets through and others don’t. Most people have no idea which one they are wearing. https://youtu.be/Py6SCZHAUgQ

Of those which don’t allow passage, many will simply redirect the exhaled air from going forward to going sideways with same number of droplets left in the air. For example a surgical mask does just that - my glasses fog up at every exhale.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#382

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

timr wrote: post #379
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the CDC: --------------- Data regarding the “real-world” effectiveness of community masking are limited to observational and epidemiological studies. * An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and tes…

> in a unified hospital system, a German city, a U.S. state, a panel of 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. as well as both Canada and the U.S. nationally. Each analysis demonstrated that, following directives from organizational and political leadership for universal masking, new infections fell significantly. Two of these studies and an additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S. also demo…

> Anyone who attempted to conduct a similar analysis today would have to credibly conclude that masks have no protective effect whatsoever.

Absolutely not the case. It would be just as credible, as has been noted by others in the comments here, to suggest that the major cause of spread is unmasked private gatherings.

> But who knows...maybe they slightly alter the slope of the curve. It's impossible to tell without a controlled trial.

I agree that without controlled trials, it is very difficult to tell definitively. That does not, however, translate into "there are lots of reasons to doubt ..."

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#383

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

timr wrote: post #378
burkaman wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not an accurate summary of the study. Emphasis mine: > Limitation: Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others. > The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate amo…

I made an accurate summary of the study. From the Results: "Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection." The points you are raising about limitations in no way affect the conclusion of the work. Short of putting infected people in a room with uninfected people, there is no ethical way to test the hypothesis that "m…

It seems to me that you're trying to fight two battles at once.

  1. do masks inhibit production of and exposure to aerosols carrying SARS-COV-2? This seems (to me) to me clearly established, and essentially irrefutable.

  2. do mask mandates reduce the spread of COVID19? this is an entirely different question, and has almost nothing whatsoever to do with the abilities of masks referenced in (1) above.
I would suggest that we know that the answer to (1) is yes, without doubt, but we have only hand-wavy answers to (2). That's still quite different from what you're claiming.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#384

Post by null_object »

randomsearch wrote: post #233
null_object wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you know if you’re Swedish, Expressen (a major newspaper here in Sweden) exploded these myths about the supposed demographic differences between Sweden and Norway by comparing the sparsely populated northern region of Sweden with its Nordic neighbors and it still had more than FIVE times the death rate.

The two countries are different, that was my point. I'm not saying the Swedish approach is the most preferable, I'm saying cherry-picking Norway on some hand-wavy "all nordic countries are entirely alike wrt pandemics and you cannot compare them to other countries" manner is not scientific. And selecting one part of that country is not going to work unless you match on all important factors. The rigorous way to do th…

As someone who comes from the UK but has now lived in Sweden for 20 years and has relatives in both Sweden and Norway, the supposed demographic gulf between the two countries (which Swedish people seem to have only noticed this year) is certainly not apparent to me. But I wonder if it’s worth all the downvotes saying so?

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#385

Post by irq11 »

bsder wrote: post #322
dehrmann wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Masks might slow it, but they're everywhere in the Bay Area, and cases are rising faster than ever, and we're setting new records for new cases, so "just wear a mask in public" isn't enough.

Welcome to the Thanksgiving bump. People didn't listen and stay home. And, if they got together, they didn't wear masks. I got Covid from community transmission. I quarantined in my house, away from my wife, and wore a mask 24/7. She didn't get my Covid. Masks work, but people have to bloody well use them.

I spent a week in a small apartment with someone who had symptomatic Covid. Close contact the whole time. Neither of us wore masks.

I never got it.

An anecdote means very little, and certainly is not evidence that masks work without controls for every other thing that might have prevented you from getting infected.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#386

Post by lsllc »

dehrmann wrote: post #93
LatteLazy wrote: post #59

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

Masks might slow it, but they're everywhere in the Bay Area, and cases are rising faster than ever, and we're setting new records for new cases, so "just wear a mask in public" isn't enough.

Same here in Massachusetts. Universal masking since May 6th, the governor even did away with "except of >6ft from others when outside rule" in the beginning of November, and we're seeing more cases than ever.

Could it be ocular transmission?

https://www.ajmc.com/view/can-wearing-eyeglasses-mitigate-co...

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#388

Post by tonyedgecombe »

JimTheMan wrote: post #376
Symbiote wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is probably the most connected not-tiny island. (One of the world's biggest airports, several of Europe's busiest, frequent direct rail connection to the continent, frequent ferries on many routes, fully integrated free trade + work zone.) "According to Getlink, the company which operates the Channel Tunnel, 1.64 million trucks traveled between the UK and the EU using the crossing last year. More than 2.5 million…

The UK could have closed all these borders down. They just chose not too.

The UK could not close those borders down, we would starve.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#389

Post by renaudg »

hknapp wrote: post #377
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of you will still get Long Covid, which may leave you with permanent breathing issues and other health problems. The biggest lie is that if you're under 30 you're immune. You're not - not even slightly. You're far less likely to die than someone who is 85 and obese with diabetes and high blood pressure. But no one knows what the long term health implications are for younger people who make a partial recovery. An…

This is interesting. What are the stats (percentages) on those who get "Long Covid" by age group?

I don't have the age breakdown but serious/long Covid is about 15% of cases, which is potentially millions of people in most countries if we let the epidemic rip through. Symptoms include mental fog, loss of concentration, extreme fatigue, loss of smell..

This is why the idea of chasing herd immunity without a vaccine has always been misguided

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#390

Post by tonyedgecombe »

throwaway2245 wrote: post #199
sideshowb wrote: post #34

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

Planning to keep the reproduction rate as close to 1 as possible is the most efficient way to generate new strains, so they have the same root cause anyway.

I did hear one minister describe a replication rate below 1 as budget available to spend.
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