London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain • Hacker News Board

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#311

Post by pjc50 » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:20 PM UTC

jonplackett wrote: post #222

LatteLazy wrote: post #59

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

Also in London and 100% agree. I’ve barely been to a shop in 8 months because of this. For some reason we can manage to prevent drunk agro people entering a club with the wrong shoes, but 8 months into a pandemic we can’t make people wear a bloody mask? It’s insane. The government are partly to blame for making rules so haphazardly that even someone like me who reads EVERYTHING and wants to do the right thing 100% of…

I've heard how to wear an aircraft oxygen mask a hundred times in my life but never a PSA on how to wear a COVID mask. One I hope never to do and the other I do every week at least.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#312

Post by pjc50 » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:22 PM UTC

tedivm wrote: post #295

spoonjim wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Staff enforcement is much easier in the US since losing your job results in homelessness.

The US has a homelessness rate of 6.2%, while the UK has a homelessness rate of 7.7%.

That is astonishingly high and may be counted differently (people living insecurely on couches)

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#313

Post by addicted » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:23 PM UTC

DenisM wrote: post #302

Apropos of other comments. What do we think about the mask “issue”? Some people vehemently refuse to wear them, others take “just go with flow” attitude, yet others approach it with outsized religious zeal, hounding the heretics or at least giving them the stink eye. It also seems some people take great comfort on the mask, wearing it even inside their cars or waaay out in the open. Are we witnessing a religious schi…

The mask issue is a non issue. There are a few possibilities:

1) Masks work in preventing the spread of the virus. 2) Masks don’t work in preventing the spread of the virus.

If we don’t wear masks, then: under (1) we have hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of sickness instances, and hundreds of billions of lost dollars due to reduced economic activity and sickness, compared to the wearing mask scenario.

(2) There’s very little difference. Some may say we unnecessarily spend money on masks, but considering that the making of masks can employ otherwise unused resources, especially in the clothing manufacturing and distribution economy, it may actually be a positive to make and distribute masks even if they don’t work, comparable to a stimulus, but more effective because all of the money is immediately deployed, and not just saved, and there are far fewer ideological issues with giving money away for nothing, and it does not require any deficit spending. Further, even if masks don’t help with COVID, they will help reduce chances of spreading other diseases and therefore reduce the strain on hospitals.

Now if you further consider that there is a lot of evidence to indicate that masks do have an effect, and the countries that have handled COVID best by and large swear by them, it’s an absolute no brained to mandate them.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#314

Post by mafribe » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:25 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #186

makomk wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd also have meant severing food supply chains (and probably also medical supply chains and a bunch of others). The UK relies on trucks coming across from the continent and continuing on to destinations throughout the country with their original drivers. Ending that would make Brexit look like a walk in the park by comparison. Also, you've got to remember that the time period during which the UK would've had to do…

Only if you assume the worst implementation without thinking of the necessary exemptions. Obviously don't cut off the food supply chain. > time period during which the UK would've had to do this for it to be effective .. lies roughly from Feburary to the present day. No reason to allow travel from countries with significant prevalence. > all the right-thinking people were insisting that border restrictions were count…

   [citation needed]

How about this: https://www.containcovid-pan.eu/? Choice quote: Given open borders within Europe, a single country alone cannot keep the number of COVID-19 cases low

Let's reverse the burden of evidence, and request [citation needed] for your implicit claim that the open borders lobby is not relevant here?

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#315

Post by addicted » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:25 PM UTC

matejcs wrote: post #309

"You can attend places of worship for a service." This is completely unacceptable.

It’s unconscionable that someone is allowed to p into a liquor store with a limit on the number of patrons at a time, buy a quick bottle, with minimal human interaction and easily maintained social distancing and be out within minutes, but they are not allowed to enter a building with hundreds of people at the same time, sit for hours, singing and talking to each other.

/s

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#316

Post by acs5 » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:27 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #294

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is also a lot of reason to believe they are not nearly as effective as was sold to people in the early summer. Mayeb you can post some (preferably peer-reviewed) literature links that show "a lot of reason" to believe this.

The only peer-reviewed RCT ever conducted for Covid-19 and masks found no statistically significant protective effect: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

No statistically significant protective effect for the wearer, but as the study points out, it says nothing about protection of those around the wearer, which is the commonly accepted reason for mask wearing.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#317

Post by addicted » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:28 PM UTC

chimprich wrote: post #15

pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

That's old news, unfortunately. The latest data suggest that it is significantly more transmissible. "Up to" 70% more, according to the UK government's press conference. This is big. Luckily, it doesn't seem to be more dangerous in terms of hospital admissions. Statement from Chris Whitty, UK's chief medical advisor to the government: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-from-chief-medi...

Maybe I’m too cynical, but it sounds like the new strain is an excuse to explain why the U.K. PM, who until a day ago was publicly not putting any restrictions on Britons, and especially Londoners for Christmas, is now suddenly reversing himself.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#318

Post by vmception » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:28 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #251

vmception wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. These words are not inherently insults regardless of how allergic other people are to adjectives. All good though.

when a word is indeed "not inherently [an] insult", but is a de facto one for millions of people, I'm not clear what is gained by pointing out dictionary definitions or alternative reactions to the term.

Its clear that it wasn't an insult because I said so multiple times specifically to clear up any ambiguity. That’s the point.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#319

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:30 PM UTC

mafribe wrote: post #301

beaker52 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a Londoner. Whilst I've observed greater mask compliance, shops, cafes, bars and restaurants have been packed. I've been to bars freely serving alcohol with no need to buy food, just like the old days. Definitely seeing rule breaking. And I've had a friend who wanted to beat the travel restrictions by leaving London before midnight. That's rule beating. I see it everywhere. A PSA because it's important: I can pr…

Londoner here too and I agree with your observations about compliance. Tons of rule breaking. The dance studio next to my dwelling has been running popular dance classes as recently as last night. I think it's mostly an age thing: the under 20s almost completely ignore covid restrictions, and so does a substantial part of the under 30s. I can't even blame them as it doesn't affect them. And they mostly lack an unders…

Some countries have done better than others. Spain, France, and Italy have all done badly, but Germany and Portugal have much better outcomes than the UK.

The point about test and trace plus limited lockdowns is that you can play whack-a-mole with clusters, which does a far better job of preventing transmission than anything short of a vaccine.

Countries with aggressive test and trace and compulsory self-isolation have done best of all - and with limited economic damage.

None of this should be rocket science, but apparently it's not a priority for the UK government which has literally used a deadly pandemic as an excuse to hand out billions of pounds of public cash to mates, cronies, and party donors. With no expectation of any effective service provision in return.

Literally. That is not exaggeration in any way. It's on the record - including some court records - that the UK gov has been doing this.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#320

Post by marcosdumay » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 11:30 PM UTC

LatteLazy wrote: post #258

twic wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See table 2 in the most recent weekly national COVID-19 surveillance report [1], which breaks down where outbreaks have happened. In London, there were 220 outbreaks last week: Educational 108 Hospital 42 Care home 38 Workplace 20 Other 10 Prisons 1 Food outlet/restaurant 1 This is outbreaks, not infections - i don't think we have statistics on that, so this is the best indication we have of where the virus is spread…

Edit, ignore the next paragraph, I was looking at this week vs last wekk... Weirdly I see slightly different numbers... Table 2 on page number 26 of the first pdf? Sorry if I'm looking in the wrong place... Either way, I think this relies on contact tracing data, but contact tracing doesn't happen on trains or in supermarkets (super markets are exempt why exactly? No one knows). That's why their zeros...

Both are places where a huge number of people pass, and nearly nobody stays for long. I imagine both would give a very large number of false positives, so you'll need a lot of work to get little impact.