When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet • Hacker News Board

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#311

Post by ineedasername » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:09 AM UTC

I'm not sure the decision on the basis of unit sales, in COVID's 2020, is a proper metric for "mainstream".

Because VR manufacturers were unprepared for the surge in demand, things like the Quest were out of stock constantly for months. The Quest 2 is still extremely hard to find outside of crazy scalper prices or a 1-month wait if you buy direct.

Besides which, 10,000,000 seems very large for an early adopter group a anyway. I'd argue that anything selling 1million+ units has pretty much made the mainstream.

Still, that wasn't the bet, but it may very well be that demand for 10,000,000 existed, it just outstripped supply, at which point I'd say the spirit of the bet was fulfilled.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#312

Post by J5892 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:18 AM UTC

nomel wrote: post #256

jmiskovic wrote: post #66

On same note, developing VR from inside is incredible and it quickly turned into my #1 hobby. At first you are surrounded with blank space, then you slowly fill it out with whatever reality rules you can think of. I went with code-only approach (no binary assets) and built a primitive development environment that works in VR. Now I have a neat little virtual shed with different experiments and demo projects. Geometri…

> VR is already fun and we're in for a wild ride once AR hits the market. I, personally, see VR as being much more exciting than AR, from an entertainment and capabilities perspective. I don't want to be limited to my small living room or whatever setting I'm in. When I'm in the real world outside of my house, I can't imagine what AR would bring that wouldn't be completely utilitarian, like replacing my phone/watch w…

VR is simply a stepping stone. AR is the real future.

But that's not to say that fully immersive experiences have no future. I just don't think VR will fully take off until it's available in a small form-factor, and likely combined with AR in the same device.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#313

Post by J5892 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:25 AM UTC

causality0 wrote: post #290

VR is a magical experience but for me it just isn't worth the hassle. VR is going to have to get to the "pick up and play within 60 seconds" level of convenience before I spend any more money on it. Getting my glasses to fit correctly in the headset is a pain. Adjusting the focus when I put it on is a pain. Software that tells me everything is working fine when I have no picture is a pain. Setting up the play area ev…

What headset do you have?

I've never had any trouble with my glasses or focus with the Vive. (granted, my glasses are fairly small)

And I've never had issues with my play area being messed up.

I don't mean to belittle your issues. I'm just curious why our experiences are so different.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#314

Post by PeterisP » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:27 AM UTC

jaegerpicker wrote: post #110

echelon wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're still several VR hardware iterations away. Oculus, Vive, Index - these are like the pre-iPhone smart phones. They're bulky, slow, they kind of do their job, but they're not something everybody wants. VR has to get better. The resolution and FOV are terrible. The gameplay paradigms kind of suck because movement is such a pain. AR honestly seems even further away. Pokemon Go and all the other AR trinkets are clun…

I think you are wrong about AR, once a decent set of AR capable glasses hit the market I think we will see a very large market adoption. Very much like the smart phone and smart watch and tablet it will be a toy for techies until a company with real design chops and solid software/hardware gets behind it. I also believe that Apple is the most likely to be that company, solid design and a well liked ecosystem, plus a…

To me, AR seems further away simply because "decent set of AR capable glasses" is further away than decent VR hardware, so the AR market adoption you expect would happen a couple years after VR has sufficiently good hardware to go mainstream.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#315

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:28 AM UTC

an_opabinia wrote: post #94

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

> The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. Ironically, by getting acquired by a giant company, Quest development was set back by that many years. The real problem isn't technology or even adoption, it's that people who work at giant companies suck at making games.

[deleted]

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#316

Post by m463 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:31 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

I think you're right -- new technology is overestimated (overhyped) in the short term, and underestimated in the long term. I think of speech recognition over the years where the promise never met reality and then it quietly started answering most corporate phones.

I have tried VR many times over the years (I vividly recall there was an interesting arcade game back around 1990 that used it). I got a vive. I tried others.

But after using it for a while, I returned to a monitor and keyboard as my preferred way of interacting. There's still something sort of self-limiting/tiring about VR.

Is it just me?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#317

Post by LiquidSky » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:38 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

>I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment.

Except for the iPhone part, I bet this exact comment was made in 1991.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#318

Post by MikusR » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:41 AM UTC

J5892 wrote: post #313

causality0 wrote: post #290

VR is a magical experience but for me it just isn't worth the hassle. VR is going to have to get to the "pick up and play within 60 seconds" level of convenience before I spend any more money on it. Getting my glasses to fit correctly in the headset is a pain. Adjusting the focus when I put it on is a pain. Software that tells me everything is working fine when I have no picture is a pain. Setting up the play area ev…

What headset do you have? I've never had any trouble with my glasses or focus with the Vive. (granted, my glasses are fairly small) And I've never had issues with my play area being messed up. I don't mean to belittle your issues. I'm just curious why our experiences are so different.

The only headset with adjustable focus is GearVR, but its only 3dof so no idea

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#319

Post by lwansbrough » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

edmundsauto wrote: post #176

lwansbrough wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You should consider updating your 5 year old opinion in a product category that is nascent. I no longer have a Facebook account, so this is impossible for me, right? But let me check Google. Bulky, isolating, still requires controllers. Yep, nothing has changed, as expected. People who have staked their livelihoods on this technology are mad about my initial comment but the fact remains: nobody is buying these thin…

Counterpoint: you have entrenched your opinion and are unwilling or unable to update it, despite acknowledging that your inputs are 5 years out of date. To point to specifically inaccurate or misleading statements of yours: 1. "still requires controllers" - incorrect, hand tracking is a thing, and on its way to a user friendly input. It's not clear why controllers are a negative - do you similarly criticize the PS5 f…

> hand tracking is a thing, and on its way to a user friendly input

Which is about where it was last time I checked in. Most VR games require use of controllers do they not? As long as you have cumbersome interfaces like handheld controllers or hand tracking that doesn't handle occlusion you can't maintain a suspension of disbelief. If it's not clear why controllers are a negative, you're not really getting what VR should be. I don't criticize the PS5 for having a controller because the main focus of game consoles isn't the display technology. The screen has succeeded as a timeless medium for bringing people into another world. It's less awkward and cumbersome than VR, so it's actually better at creating a virtual reality than an HMD.

> 50% more pixels, for a device where pixel density is important for usability. A 25% ($100) price drop, in a device that is now significantly cheaper than gaming consoles.

Resolution is actually one of the least important aspects of VR (unless of course, the rest of the experience is so mediocre that it's all people can focus on.) The breakthroughs in VR will come in the form of human interfacing improvements. Only once a device can truly understand your intent can it become believable. For as long as you have to hold a controller or think about how you interact with the device, VR will continue to be a gimmick. It's a UX problem as much as it is a hardware problem, but the UX will be obvious once the hardware is solved.

> "nobody is buying these things" appears to be incorrect, literally and directionally.

I guess it took the entire world sitting at home to get 3M people interested enough to buy the latest VR system. Cool. If it was actually what people wanted, everybody would be scrambling to get one. 3M says to me that it's more of the same. I feel like I've taken a time machine to 2005, being told how great the latest Palm phone is while knowing the iPhone is just around the corner. Can't you see that the technology just sucks compared to what it should be? Only once it is what it should be will it be what you want to believe it is today.

> me and my friends haven't bought one

Again, why would I buy a device I can't use?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#320

Post by SamBam » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 3:04 AM UTC

nomel wrote: post #256

jmiskovic wrote: post #66

On same note, developing VR from inside is incredible and it quickly turned into my #1 hobby. At first you are surrounded with blank space, then you slowly fill it out with whatever reality rules you can think of. I went with code-only approach (no binary assets) and built a primitive development environment that works in VR. Now I have a neat little virtual shed with different experiments and demo projects. Geometri…

> VR is already fun and we're in for a wild ride once AR hits the market. I, personally, see VR as being much more exciting than AR, from an entertainment and capabilities perspective. I don't want to be limited to my small living room or whatever setting I'm in. When I'm in the real world outside of my house, I can't imagine what AR would bring that wouldn't be completely utilitarian, like replacing my phone/watch w…

For a long time I've wanted VR-like games, but played in the freedom of AR, where it maps and adapts to your environment. This would allow you to actually move around and interact with your space.

I briefly played the HoloLens AR game where you have to shoot at robotic bugs that crawl out from your walls.[1] The fact that I could duck behind my office partition was awesome. The fact that when I blew a hole in my wall I could see the "studs" behind it was similarly cool.

In an ideal world, I could trace out my house and play up and down the stairs. Or go to a field or forest and play in a whole other world.

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29xnzxgCx6I