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When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#101

Post by cynic_ »

binarymax wrote: post #7

Technology is not the problem. Flashback to 1995. I'm a 17 year old PFY invited to beta test a VR headset from a local company. My Uncle was an investor and I was technically savvy and the target market. I had a copy of Descent that supported VR, and while it was a bit of a hassle to get setup, I got it working. The experience was incredible. After the first use I said to myself "this is the future". I had permission…

Now compared to 1995, gaming in general seems a lot closer to the VR experience you describe. Local multiplayer is uncommon, shared gaming spaces like arcades and LANs are gone and people are playing games on their own devices alone.

I'm as isolated playing Counter-Strike on my PC as when I am on the Oculus Quest.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#102

Post by lwansbrough »

It was pretty clear to me back in 2015-2016 that VR was going absolutely no where. All you had to do was try on any headset and evaluate it honestly.

The graphics sucked, the lag sucked, it gave some people nausea and others an unwanted sense of vertigo. Prices for high-end equipment were (and still are) ridiculous and unattainable for the mass market. Even if you could afford it, do you also own a space big enough to set it up? And if you did, was it convenient to have to be in that space to use it?

The premise of VR as a foundational technology is totally flawed. VR is for experiences that take you out of reality, but most people aren't looking for that on a daily basis. Entering VR is comparable to going to the movies: it's something to do once you've exhausted better options.

To those who say the technology can never get there, I disagree. The market will explode once the first real AR/MR device arrives. People won't care what it looks like or that it has a pervy camera if it's the most amazing piece of technology they've ever used. It will be like the first iPhone - an "Aha!" moment in amongst a sea of products that just don't get it. It won't require lighthouses or setup or spatial mapping or wires or the social isolation of being at home, it will just implicitly understand the world wherever you are and will be available to you when you need to use it. Like a phone in your pocket.

And I'm sure with the equivalent of a sleeping mask such a device would be VR capable as well.

It's coming, but it won't be a product from a startup (anyone remember Magic Leap?) and not for maybe 5-10 years.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#103

Post by dustinsterk »

dougmwne wrote: post #98
kilroy123 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What else do you recommend with two headsets? My significant other and I are getting two Oculus headsets next week.

Try Echo VR, Population One, Blaston, Hyperdash, and Walkabout Mini Golf. There's no real advantage to being in the same physical space to any of these games, but they are all great multiplayer titles.

+1 to Walkabout Mini Golf, it is a blast!

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#104

Post by dougmwne »

forgotmysn wrote: post #76
canada_dry wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> good enough to replace large screens The resolution is pretty good already and rapidly getting better. What I'm excited about is hand tracking [i] so that I can use a real keyboard (and interact with real objects e.g. coffee cup) to type while I'm wearing a headset. [i] https://youtu.be/XnG1l0qQW9k

thats true, but for most headsets, resolution still isn't high enough to read bodies of text without eye fatigue. until that is solved, I don't think VR will move from entertainment to productivity. Varjo is getting closer to that resolution level, but their headsets are priced for enterprise ($8k i think?)

I pulled my neck last week and spent the weekend working, watching amazon prime and playing xbox cloud streaming flat on my back on a 10 foot virtual screen. I was working for multiple hours at a time reviewing programming specifications and taking notes. The display tech is pretty much there, even for text. Keyboard input is still unsolved, though I was using Office 365 dictation and that was working well for taking notes. This was on the Quest 2. The fresnel lenses are actually a bigger downside than the screen resolution, which is not retina, but still better than the 24" 1080p external display I use all day.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#105

Post by outside1234 »

I don't think VR is every going to take off - it is just too isolating and most people don't want a completely new world. They want to socialize in this one.

But AR - that's different - and I think it will happen the second we can get a full day of use out of it in a normal glasses form factor. (With enterprise scenarios driving earlier larger form factors)

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#106

Post by edmundsauto »

lwansbrough wrote: post #102

It was pretty clear to me back in 2015-2016 that VR was going absolutely no where. All you had to do was try on any headset and evaluate it honestly. The graphics sucked, the lag sucked, it gave some people nausea and others an unwanted sense of vertigo. Prices for high-end equipment were (and still are) ridiculous and unattainable for the mass market. Even if you could afford it, do you also own a space big enough t…

The Quest line has been a major step up. You should consider updating your 5 year old opinion in a product category that is nascent.

Also, I believe a lot of hype around VR is that it is a necessary first step before VR.

Finally, while I agree that AR is the “mobile phone” type of revolutionary product, I still think VR is going to be wildly successful. To me, the limiting factor is the builders tools - it’s so expensive to put together good interactive VR content.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#107

Post by mchusma »

In my opinion, I think the takeoff point for virtual reality for office use is: 1) Reasonable price point (Quest 2 hits that) 2) Text must be easily clear and legible. Quest 2 does not really hit that, but high end units seem to.

So it seems like we are about 1 generation away from having something mainstream for work, so probably 2 years away.

We are a remote team and I decided against Quest 2 but was borderline due to text legibility. I would probably buy everyone a Quest 3 though as a way to interact on some things.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#108

Post by tolbish »

outside1234 wrote: post #105

I don't think VR is every going to take off - it is just too isolating and most people don't want a completely new world. They want to socialize in this one. But AR - that's different - and I think it will happen the second we can get a full day of use out of it in a normal glasses form factor. (With enterprise scenarios driving earlier larger form factors)

> most people don't want a completely new world. They want to socialize in this one.

The popularity of video games proves that is demonstrably false.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#109

Post by klibertp »

forgotmysn wrote: post #76
canada_dry wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> good enough to replace large screens The resolution is pretty good already and rapidly getting better. What I'm excited about is hand tracking [i] so that I can use a real keyboard (and interact with real objects e.g. coffee cup) to type while I'm wearing a headset. [i] https://youtu.be/XnG1l0qQW9k

thats true, but for most headsets, resolution still isn't high enough to read bodies of text without eye fatigue. until that is solved, I don't think VR will move from entertainment to productivity. Varjo is getting closer to that resolution level, but their headsets are priced for enterprise ($8k i think?)

> but for most headsets, resolution still isn't high enough to read bodies of text without eye fatigue.

Most? Is there anything, no matter how expensive, which is currently capable of clearly presenting large bodies of text? The moment something like this appears I'm going to buy it even if I had to sell my kidney for it!

EDIT: forgot about input. I'd probably be willing to finally learn to touch-type, if that would be enough. I'd probably be happier with being able to see the keyboard once in a while, though.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#110

Post by jaegerpicker »

echelon wrote: post #5
jschveibinz wrote: post #2

Here is a good explanation on the AR/VR adoption struggles: https://arpost.co/2019/11/27/ar-and-vr-changed-our-lives-5-b... Gilmore and Pine “Experience Economy” suggests that we are now in the transformation economy. Maybe VR needs to be transformative?

We're still several VR hardware iterations away. Oculus, Vive, Index - these are like the pre-iPhone smart phones. They're bulky, slow, they kind of do their job, but they're not something everybody wants. VR has to get better. The resolution and FOV are terrible. The gameplay paradigms kind of suck because movement is such a pain. AR honestly seems even further away. Pokemon Go and all the other AR trinkets are clun…

I think you are wrong about AR, once a decent set of AR capable glasses hit the market I think we will see a very large market adoption. Very much like the smart phone and smart watch and tablet it will be a toy for techies until a company with real design chops and solid software/hardware gets behind it. I also believe that Apple is the most likely to be that company, solid design and a well liked ecosystem, plus a proven history at creating/shaping new consumer tech device markets. Apple AR Glasses have will likely be a huge success. It helps a ton that ARKit 4 and the new Lidar sensors on the pro level devices are next level good over the current AR software.
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