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Bitcoin breaks above $20k

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Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#351

Post by latchkey »

echelon wrote: post #321
latchkey wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I could predict the future, I'd be rich already! =)

True, but sometimes a preponderance of smart opinions helps predict the shape of the future. (Or where I want to put my money :P)

Strong opinion warning then.

I see a place for both BTC and ETH. BTC is digital gold (yes, I know HN hates that, but short of a better set of words, it is what it is.)

The thing that, in my opinion, disconnects ETH from BTC is CeFi/DeFi. It really is the programmable money... but not money in the context of a currency every day people spend.

I'm talking about money in the context of "institutional money". Like the trading desks in Wall Street. Where money goes to use in making more money. All those crazy algo's that people use to pool funds and hedge and trade are getting created out in the open now and solidified (see the pun?) in code.

That is where ETH shines. The amount of development and innovation happening there, at 'move fast and break things' speed is literally amazing. Heavy emphasis on 'break' because these things are getting hacked almost daily. But just like crypto exchanges (which used to get hacked daily), it'll settle down eventually.

Interestingly, as soon as I could (Nov 6th), I bought $100 each of BTC and ETH on paypal within minutes of each other. A little experiment. Today, the ETH is worth 5.5% more and both are up a combined 32%. I don't think people are paying close enough attention to this difference because they are blinded by the 32%.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#352

Post by webinvest »

drcross wrote: post #196
ogogmad wrote: post #185

I remember reading that the Lightning network can be attacked by people spamming it with withdrawal requests, resulting in funds being stolen from users. Furthermore, I remember reading that this attack is to some extent not solvable. I need to find a link. [EDIT: I think this might be it: https://decrypt.co/33917/bitcoin-stolen-lightning-network-at... .] I'm pro-Bitcoin, and I own some, but what worries me is whethe…

Gold isn't free to transport. Bitcoin shouldn't aim to be either. We don't want starbucks transactions in the same database as people saving for their pension. If you're transporting large amounts of money (digital gold) scaling isn't an issue.

Bitcoin has a hard limit of 4.6 transactions per second. Gold doesn’t. As Bitcoin becomes more popular, it becomes more expensive to transact as everyone bids up the transaction price. Many people with small balances in their wallet will see their entire wallet balance become illiquid because the fees will be higher than their entire investment.

Eventually we could see institutions and brokerages being the main coin holders because if it costs $1000- $10000 per transaction, it only makes sense to do so in $500k+ transactions. Last time Bitcoin was $19000/ea, it cost me $180 to move the coins from one wallet to another.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#353

Post by three_seagrass »

Taek wrote: post #325
three_seagrass wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By design, any changes to update the Bitcoin protocol need to be accepted by the miners with the majority of computing power - a.k.a. a hard fork. For many reasons, such as stealing electricity and having access to chip manufacturers, there are a handful of miners in China who have the majority of the computing power for Bitcoin. They can mine bitcoins at a cost that is less than for everyone else. This creates probl…

"By design, any changes to update the Bitcoin protocol need to be accepted by the miners with the majority of computing power - a.k.a. a hard fork." This is incorrect and a common misunderstanding about Bitcoin. Hard forks require users to update, and it doesn't matter what the miners do. It also doesn't require a majority of users to upgrade, anyone who does upgrade will be on the new network, and anyone who does no…

Semantics. Any hard fork that majority of miners do not accept and support becomes it's own branch and a separate crypto.

This is why I reference the bitcoin block size debacle. Bitcoin Cash was created as a hard fork that miners ultimately did not accept and is now just a dwindling alt coin.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#354

Post by tboyd47 »

Taek wrote: post #306
tboyd47 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're looking for more substantive discussion among Bitcoiners, touching on its relation to economics, politics, and society, YouTube and Reddit are not the spots. I'd try Twitter. Start with @saifedean and go from there.

Twitter is an odd suggestion. I think the highest signal-to-noise ratio is probably podcasts. I'd start with 'On the Brink' and 'Uncommon Core'.

Thanks for the suggestions. I was mainly recommending Twitter as a jumping off point.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#355

Post by a1369209993 »

spurgu wrote: post #332
rodiger wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda unintuitive, but if you look at processing power as a currency, it is actually undergoing hyperinflation (number of computers + processing power increases every year). Meaning you buy a computer, assuming its value will drop (due to the inflationary nature).

> if you look at processing power as a currency, it is actually undergoing hyperinflation So in relation (for this particular scenario) the USD is undergoing hyperdeflation..? Whatever you call it the psychological effect with computers is the same as with a rising bitcoin price - you get more bang for the buck the longer you hold off on your purchase.

> So in relation (for this particular scenario) the USD is undergoing hyperdeflation..?

Relative to computers/processing power, yes, although you generally wouldn't describe it that way, since USD is (comparatively) stable with respect most other stores of value - it's computers that are changing in value, so it's computers that should be described as undergoing inflation.

Relative to (the relevant average of) other stores of value, dollars are undergoing inflation, just more slowly than computers.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#356

Post by a1369209993 »

rodiger wrote: post #271
ogogmad wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it the wrong way round. Deflation means when prices are dropping. The price of computers has fallen over time predictably and exponentially, and yet that hasn't stopped people from buying them. The Keynesian argument against deflation is that it disincentivizes people from spending money as they expect prices to drop. This disincentive hasn't prevented the computer industry from being a huge success. The fact…

Kinda unintuitive, but if you look at processing power as a currency, it is actually undergoing hyperinflation (number of computers + processing power increases every year). Meaning you buy a computer, assuming its value will drop (due to the inflationary nature).

> Meaning you buy a computer, assuming its value will drop (due to the inflationary nature).

Exactly. Similarly, if you buy a dollar, its value will drop (though not as quickly).

OTOH, bitcoins are the opposite of both dollars and computers: bitcoins are deflationary, and rise in value. This is a terrible property for a currency, since it encourages speculation and hording in preference to circulation.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#357

Post by jariel »

keymone wrote: post #326
jariel wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is no "environmental mitigation" for Bitcoin's energy use, this behavior ... is an essential property of cryptocurrency, without which it would cease to exist." This is based on the false premise that energy, or anything else needs to be given up in exchange for crypto, or any other form of currency. We could create a zillion cryptos out of thin air and just hand them out. That's one way to do it. Central bank…

Go create me a zillion of bitcoin and let’s see how much energy it’ll take.

You are missing my point, which is, there's no material reason to 'use energy' to 'create currency' of any kind.

It's just a peculiarity of bitcoin and the way some cryptos are generated.

There is no theoretical generalization to the notion of energy->currency so the OPs premise of energy->value doesn't make any practical sense ... other than for BTC.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#358

Post by silentsea90 »

slg wrote: post #237
silentsea90 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a dearth of information online on why the value is valid. Can you present what you find unconvincing?

I'm not making any judgement one way or another on whether the value is valid. I am simply calling out a bad argument that supports that the value is valid. The comment I originally replied was basically saying we know it has real value because people have valued it for a decade. That isn't a convincing reason.

True, the decade argument isn't fool proof. For non mathematically provable problems (is X a scam? as opposed to 1+1==2?), I find it easier to reason on the basis of ML like features with their respective weights. The longevity of sustained BTC valuation is just one feature here, not sufficient on its own.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#359

Post by three_seagrass »

keymone wrote: post #308
three_seagrass wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A decade latter and it's still a hobby currency. Price is not a sole indicator of faith in a currency.

Is decade a lot? How long did it take gold to settle as universal currency?

A decade is a lot for a new technology to miss the mass market boat. It's less like the iPhone/PDA tech and more like the Segway.

Re: Bitcoin breaks above $20k

#360

Post by capnorange »

sandeeps_ wrote: post #323
capnorange wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

coldcard if Bitcoin only. Trezor for crypto. Avoid Ledger if possible. I own all three. Currently using Coldcard + Casa.

what's wrong with Ledger?

If you are part of the leaked info[1], you are basically a walking target(mine was leaked, I constantly get phishing emails).

Trezor has had better service but this could as easily happen to them. To be really safe Coldcard is the best option.

[1] https://news.bitcoin.com/ledger-wallet-customer-data-leak-in...

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