When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

Things like motion sickness and the screen-door effect are results of lower refresh-rate/resolution than what should be used for VR.

It's very sad that as of right now, you're forced to choose movement freedom (e.g. Vive Wireless) OR the highest refresh rate / highest resolution (Valve Index). And don't get me started on the proliferation of low quality "mixed reality" headsets. Honest enthusiasts have no options for high quality "world scale" VR. The best VR experience is STILL found this way, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DvB07X84HM - but it requires a shitty headset compared to the Index.

VR most likely would have ended up with the same experience (but better quality) if the manufacturers built better quality headsets with wireless and higher resolution (most likely attached to a high quality laptop in a backpack), priced it more highly (1500-2000$+ in kits like the youtube video), and then let VRs merits sell itself, rather than allow half-baked headsets to frustrate and dissuade people.

I worked for a VR/AR platform helping 3rd parties port apps onto the platform for a couple of years. Low traction seemed to be a combination of the following related problems:

1) ROI for the platform's premium was not worth it, due to... 2) lack of must-have apps, due to... 3) poor ratio of difficulty designing a great user experience vs low number of outfits trying to build that software, due to ... 4) fragmentation in technology (AR & VR) which results in different user experience in each platform, and low rates of adoption especially given dispersion over different platforms, consequently there was far less financial motivation for a company to invest long term resources.

With VR/AR, the obvious killer app is 3D model generation, because you could turn efficient workflows into money, but the amount of effort that has been thrown into desktop publishing is so much that the bar for a VR/AR app to get over is very, very high. If your audience is professional 3d modelers. The mouse is such an excellent precision instrument, it's going to be a long time before we have a 6 degree-of-freedom input device that can match it for precision and ease of long term use. The existing CAD companies with funds sit on large portfolios of software, and a fantastic VR/AR experience would devalue them, so they don't have a lot of motivation.

Long story short, it's going to take longer than the PC revolution, because the adoption-conformity numbers are not as good. I'd guess another ten years?

Just a small correction. The Quest can access all PC software that the Rift S can through Oculus Link.

Still on the same old tired track with this. Stores can't keep Quest2s in stock and have you tried to actually buy an HP Reverb2 lately? Developers are making decent amounts of money out of VR titles. Users who have the headsets love them, and the various reddit VR groups are extremely active. Still, nothing to see, and it's not getting adoption. Pls ..

> The mouse is such an excellent precision instrument, it's going to be a long time before we have a 6 degree-of-freedom input device that can match it for precision and ease of long term use.

From my experience don't most professional 3D modelers use some sort of pen tablet like a Wacom? Now I'm thinning I would love if Wacom pivoted to the VR/AR space and made a special 6 DOF pen you can use. I hope they don't go the way to Kodak and just get stuck being a pen tablet company while artists make the jump the VR (eventually?)