The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system • Hacker News Board

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#251

Post by User23 » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:21 PM UTC

jfim wrote: post #169

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's true that tariffs will make buying goods from China less appealing, but if you look at the outcome, it's not really a win. Consumers are paying more for the same goods, companies are scrambling to move their production to India and Malaysia, and there's not a significant increase in US manufacturing. If you look at the actual outcome, it was that China devalued their currency or otherwise lowered prices to eat…

> Tax cuts and subsidies are equivalent. They're not. One can't cut taxes below zero, for starters. Some industries need more than just having negligible taxes to get started, especially in capital intensive businesses. Furthermore, the idea that the only lever that the government has to induce people to do things is lowering taxes is completely absurd. Tax cuts didn't build the Hoover dam, the interstate highway sys…

> They're not. One can't cut taxes below zero, for starters.

This already exists, it's called a refundable tax credit.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#252

Post by latchkey » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:27 PM UTC

elevenoh wrote: post #113

RhodoYolo wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think crypto will ever be used on daily spending, but could be better for 'contractual spending'. It won't ever be used for buying a coke, or anything like that (not saying it won't, just not it's actual purpose'. Things like employment, insurance, reccuring subscriptions, etc. It can A.) sometimes insure anonymity when wanted, complete visibility of reccuring spend and contract in place but employment is goi…

>I don't think crypto will ever be used on daily spending I agree, it's great of contractual/conditional speding. But I think it'll be used for daily spending in the next 5 yrs. My business receives payments via stripe where they take 2.7% fee. then i have to wait 2-3 business days to receive it in my account. I hate this & already offer a 2% discount when buyers pay my business in crypto. And a surprising # of my em…

My company just went through the exercise of deciding to be paid in crypto or not. Asked my accountant and they said it makes no difference tax wise.

In fact, if anything, it complicates taxes because it is just one more thing to track. I opted not to do this, despite being heavily pro-crypto. In fact, my company is in the crypto space.

I'm curious what your employee reasons are. Maybe if you aren't in the US, it could make more sense, but I'm not seeing it. Insight welcome.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#253

Post by oarsinsync » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:31 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #144

jfim wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's hard to argue that tariffs on goods from China don't make it less attractive to buy goods from China. It's true that tariffs will make buying goods from China less appealing, but if you look at the outcome, it's not really a win. Consumers are paying more for the same goods, companies are scrambling to move their production to India and Malaysia, and there's not a significant increase in US manufacturing. A pr…

> It's true that tariffs will make buying goods from China less appealing, but if you look at the outcome, it's not really a win. Consumers are paying more for the same goods, companies are scrambling to move their production to India and Malaysia, and there's not a significant increase in US manufacturing. If you look at the actual outcome, it was that China devalued their currency or otherwise lowered prices to eat…

> If you look at the actual outcome, it was that China devalued their currency or otherwise lowered prices to eat the tariffs, because their nightmare is manufacturing getting a foothold anywhere else, whether it's India or the US. Which is a win for the US because we have China paying us billions of dollars in tariffs without paying significantly higher prices for goods.

Can you tell my suppliers this so they stop passing on 50% of the cost of the tariffs onto me please? They don’t seem to have gotten your memo that the Chinese are paying the tariffs instead of the consumers.

I literally have “import tariffs” as a line item on all my invoices that relate to goods manufactured in China. Every single supplier appears to be colluding to increase their profits, if what you’re saying is true.

The alternative is that tariffs are actually driving up costs unnecessarily.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#254

Post by Reggi55 » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:32 PM UTC

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #12

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

It was done for 2 reasons and planned out by Paul Volcker, and there is a speech to go with it if someone can find it.

1) USD reserves allow us to import more value than we export so it offers a better standard of life for the consumer than otherwise.

2) It allows us to have a bigger consumer market than we would otherwise have and incentive for countries to partner with us to sell their stuff to. If you've lived outside the US you know every business wants to sell their stuff here either as #1 or just after their home market.

Under those purposes it seems to have worked very well. Of course theres the risks of crashes along with it too.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#255

Post by simonh » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:36 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #49

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #12

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

They aren’t slaves, they’re just people extremely happy to get a wage of $10k per year, which would be unobtainable for most of them any other way. The fact that this means they under cut US manufacturing wages by more than half isn’t really their fault.

As for bringing back manufacturing home, you need to find two things to make that work. First massive subsidies and tariffs to drive up the cost of foreign imports, imposing huge costs on tax payers and consumers; and tens of millions of people willing to work in factories. The US long term unemployment rate in 2019 was about a third of a percent. Where are you going to find the money, and where are you going to find the people?

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#256

Post by pugz » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:45 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #181

omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More aggressive lockdowns initially could have limited the initial spread, and from there reasonable precautions could have been effective. Disparaging mask use is also generally considered to be harmful. Cutting funding to certain CDC programs may also have been detrimental. https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-covid-19-cdc-budg...

> More aggressive lockdowns initially could have limited the initial spread, and from there reasonable precautions could have been effective. This is what Australia did. Except that some of the measures they used may have been unconstitutional in the US, and Australia is an island. The US has 4500 miles of porous borders with other countries. And covid spreads asymptomatically, so the only way to get to where Austral…

Australia being an island has little bearing on this. It's not like the Covid situation in the USA is because of infected people crossing the border illegally: it happened because of legal travel.

Trump's so-called China ban was a farce. It didn't stop USA residents from flying into the USA, it didn't even stop the immediate family of residents from flying to the USA.

Australia closed all travel from China initially and later from everywhere else in the world. There's plenty of room for criticism as they also stopped Australians from returning home, but the results are tough to argue with.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#257

Post by count » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:45 PM UTC

hakfoo wrote: post #249

hourislate wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Germany still has a strong industrial base It's because they build the machines to build the product the Chinese manufacture. The Germans have forced themselves to be at the top of the Manufacturing Food Chain (engineering, etc) while letting the Chinese/Rest of the world build the crap we buy. I don't think we could get there manufacturing the "Trinkets" the Chinese mostly manufacture, that is a a race to the botto…

What I always wondered: are German products that much better, or is it a meme? The thought that comes to mind is when American railways tried to import German locomotives in the 1960s. They were appealing because they offered higher horsepower ratings than anything domestic, but they required too much babying and maintenance to keep healthy and were quickly scrapped. I hear strikingly similar things from people buyin…

A large part of the expense on the cars is import tariffs and shipping/freight expense. Upkeep on a German car in Germany is substantially less expensive.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#258

Post by etc-hosts » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:49 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #49

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #12

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

> To compete, you really do have to cut minimum wage.

Minimum wage workers do not think they are making too much money, also there are a lot more of them then you.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#259

Post by MrRadar » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:49 PM UTC

alasano wrote: post #235

michaelyoshika wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t understand why a hacker community would consistently downvote crypto currency related comments. Can anyone explain it to me? Like, folks can build their own cpu so not to be controlled by big companies, but they all like using money controlled by some big banks?

Probably a mix of things. People who appreciated the technology initially but changed their minds seeing it being driven by what people often consider a toxic community who hides behind the pretense of technology to make money. People who think Bitcoin itself, despite the technology, is no good for it's stated initial purpose of being a peer to peer electronic cash system. Whether that's true even with additional lay…

Don't forget another type (of which I count myself among): those who think "proof of work" cryptocurrencies are an environmental disaster. Recent estimates place the energy used to mine Bitcoins at around the same as the entire energy use of Switzerland[1] and as each new generation of miner is created the previous generations become mountains of e-waste.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48853230

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#260

Post by CoffeeDregs » Sun, Dec 13, 2020, 11:49 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #100

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #12

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

Had you shorted the US stock market in 2000 on that prediction/hunch, you would be down a lot. The economy has moved beyond manufacturing. Data, payment, and information processing and intellectual ropery have taken over manufacturing in importance.

I wouldn't have shorted the market based on that but I've not been sanguine about the US economy since then. Financial engineering, not productivity[1], has really been the driver of our economy...

[1] https://voxeu.org/article/industry-anatomy-transatlantic-pro...