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The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

lynalden.com

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Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#71
post #6

> More troublesome, the inherent flaw of having the global reserve currency, in a theme that goes back to economist Robert Triffin from over half a century ago, is that in order to maintain the global reserve currency, the country must supply the world with its currency via structural deficits in one form or another. That "structural deficit" means allowing manufacturing to move overseas. The trade war is a distracti…

Inflating the dollar is probably the only way we're going to get out of the hole we're in, so that'd kill two bird with one stone.

Default is another option. Inflation hurts everybody. Cutting spending is the only way to start repairing the economy for the long term. Government consumes 31% of the fruit of our labor. Money that could be left in the hands of people to drive the economy.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#72

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This is 100%, the fact the US can barely manufacturer face masks during a global pandemic is embarrassing. On the other end, how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

>compete

Have as your "goal" less the desire to "win" the global competition for corporate profits & corporate headquartering of multinationals in your nation simply on grounds of labor/profit competitiveness, and take a more nationalist view of, where necessary, having state run enterprises or "free market" competition within your borders but not complete free trade in a global sense.

In other words, do no necessarily pursue as your goal to structure economy either to have most profitable companies that reduce costs by moving labor around the world to find cheapest workers, or those which try to export the most. Have as your goal at least to produce domestically as much as possible to satisfy domestic consumption demands, as well as having some minimal threshold of employed domestic workers.

As it stands, US has a massive trade deficit, and a decades long decline in working age male population, especially in "flyover" US regions where manufacturing has declined the most while not being replaced by equivalent jobs. These regions also have declining population, rising suicide & opiate death rates, declining family formation / birthrates.

The "telos" of our society should not put as its "end" an economy, especially one which pursues profit above all.

The economy should be a tool in service to outcomes we actually desire.

Like software built to do a job, not simply designed for the production of specific features.

This is where global financial capitalism (as the US has a giant capital surplus which balances its trade deficit) needs to be called into question.

Internal free markets is one thing. But not having a national industrial policy which prioritizes the well being of domestic workers and their families over well being of multinational corporations and banks makes our system quite degenerate over time.

People should really take a few minutes and watch these 2 videos explaining the current account[0] and capital account[1] relationship, and understand that how we operate now is a political choice, which has massive consequences on who benefits of this system accrue to, and who pays the costs of this system.

This system is maintained by having the reserve currency and the state using strong efforts over many years to not only maintain this GRC but strengthen it, not allowing the natural devaluation of the $ that would close these 2 imbalances and more closely balance capital and labor.

Also, it is not a requirement to have a well developed economy and run massive trade deficits or not have a thriving industrial sector. Germany and Japan are 2 examples that do not run giant trade deficits like the US [3]

https://youtu.be/dirBYVjDk7A [0]

https://youtu.be/AimYG1jYD0A [1]

https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/the-germany-shock-the-... [3]

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#73

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This happened in part thanks to bain capital, those following the same business model of theivery, and the deregulation in the 80's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bain_Capital Republican lawmakers and party members have been destroying America for generations. Goes back even further to 1971 when Nixon opened talks with the CCCP and then went there in 1972 cutting the ground out from beneath American workers. And now…

Not to mention these factories would pollute the environment again

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#74
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty clear that the account was either sold or taken over. Look at the most recent comments as well; not even a single one since 2012. I know we aren't supposed to talk about this per HN guidelines, but this is just too blatant. And yes, I've already emailed hn@ycombinator.com.

What about this interesting submission makes it "clear" the account was "sold"?

We can look at a timeline of the account history for paulsb.

Last comment on the account: 2012

Last post on the account: 2013

7 years of inactivity

This post

---

If it were them coming back to their old account, given how regularly paulsb commented while still active, you would think there'd be at least a few recent comments showing some kind of ramp up in re-usage of the site.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#75
post #7

Which country would benefit from a weaker dollar? Germany wants to sell their cars. China their phones. If Americans can't afford them any more, then a big market would disappear.

None of them. It's a constant battle. I always hear the trope that we "owe" China money because they buy bonds but the entire reason they're buying bonds is to keep the Renminbi weaker than the USD. Germany is a weird corner case where the entire reason for the Euro is to allow them to keep their currency artificially weak by using the rest of Europe's economy as a place to dilute their export power. The DM was getti…

China buy bonds because they have a lot dollars and they have a lot of dollars because the trade deficit. What would you do with that money, buy a bond with interest or keep the cash under the mattress?

You can spend them, I suppose. The article mention they doing it now with the Belt and Road program.

You are right about the Euro. It's not the reason of the existence but it's the result.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#76

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

> To compete, you really do have to cut minimum wage. You have to loosen regulations, and importantly, you have to do massive tariffs / sanctions on China for the next decade.

Part of the problem here is that the existence of some kind of universal "more regulations / less regulations" slider is an illusion. It allows the problem to be cast in partisan terms when that isn't the problem at all, because the problem isn't more or less lines of regulatory code but rather higher or lower regulatory efficiency.

Some regulations save a thousand lives at a 0.02% increase in costs. Repealing those is bad. Enacting them is good. Some regulations save two lives at a 5000% increase in cost, which could equally be saved by some less expensive regulation. Enacting those is bad. Repealing them is good.

The real problem is that politicians lack the qualifications and incentives to do this well. If good rules don't exist, then someone gets hurt and there is a call for "more rules" rather than "better rules". Politicians who don't know what they're doing pass bad rules. The bad rules cause costs to exceed what they are in China, so manufacturing moves to China. Then the local lobby for improving the rules evaporates because there are no longer local manufacturers to propose or lobby for more efficient rules, and the continued existence of those rules on the books causes no more to form.

We clearly need to throw away the existing rules -- they're not working -- the question is, how do we actually get better ones?

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#77

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

How will cutting the minimum wage help in the long run? People earning the current minimum wage already struggle to afford rent and food. Can you really expect to get quality work from someone who has to work 4 jobs to be able to pay rent and is sleeping 4 hours a night?

You're not going to defeat China by cutting wages unless you address the societal issues that cause US wages to be high. We already haven't raised the federal minimum wage in decades.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#78
post #26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump was the first president in my lifetime to even admit gutting our manufacturing base is a problem. Neither Democrats nor establishment Republicans did anything but line up for their shockingly paltry share of the loot while mouthing platitudes about efficiency.

True, but he said he said that simply because Bernie did, and it played well against Hillary in the primaries. He didn’t do anything that actually slowed the loss of our manufacturing base while president.

> True, but he said he said that simply because Bernie did, and it played well against Hillary in the primaries.

To be fair, Trump has been saying that since the 80s... Of course that didn't stop him from manufacturing in china himself. The guy talks the talk but rarely walks the walk.

> He didn’t do anything that actually slowed the loss of our manufacturing base while president.

And that's why he lost. But boy did he make israel safe. How many arab states did he force into recognizing israel? 4 or 5?

Trump's achievements were making israel great again and forcing mexico to extend intellectual property rights by a few years so that he can selling his "Trump" name in mexico for a few more years? Not that things are going to get any better with biden.

But then again, it's naive to think the president hold any true power. The power are held by those behind the scenes. Politicians nowadays are entertainers to keep the populace distracted. Presidents come and go, but the powerful remain.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

Competing in a race to the bottom ought to beg the question about what alternatives and options are. Focusing on efficiency and quality are two examples that would probably be a better long-term bet, with fewer negative secondary effects.

That's the strategy of the Germans.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#80
post #9
post #6

> More troublesome, the inherent flaw of having the global reserve currency, in a theme that goes back to economist Robert Triffin from over half a century ago, is that in order to maintain the global reserve currency, the country must supply the world with its currency via structural deficits in one form or another. That "structural deficit" means allowing manufacturing to move overseas. The trade war is a distracti…

I’ve seen fretting for years about the collapse of the dollar as the global reserve. Lately I have started wondering if this might not be good in the long run, and if maintaining the dollar as a global reserve is actually a very costly and economically distorting thing.

I think the only reason that a global reserve currency hasnt changed yet is that there are no sound currencies to use. USD was selected as the global reserve because it was backed by gold. We went and fucked that up. Now there are no currencies left backed by anything but promises. If there was a large enough country with gold backed money the reserve currency would have switched decades ago.
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