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The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

lynalden.com

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Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#31
Economists writing about the end of the dollar as a reserve currency is not a new thing. With the Fed printing money tho at record rates this would be the time for a shift to happen.

The problem is there is no alternative. The Euro has it's own structural issues and as we saw in March when folks got scared they sold alternatives like Bitcoin down hard. In short, there is no alternative without international cooperation to make a change which doesn't appear likely any time soonish.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#32

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This is 100%, the fact the US can barely manufacturer face masks during a global pandemic is embarrassing. On the other end, how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

US prison labor?

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happened in part thanks to bain capital, those following the same business model of theivery, and the deregulation in the 80's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bain_Capital Republican lawmakers and party members have been destroying America for generations. Goes back even further to 1971 when Nixon opened talks with the CCCP and then went there in 1972 cutting the ground out from beneath American workers. And now…

Confused about this illegal substances thing, can you elaborate?

US opiate/heroin crisis.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#34

Economists writing about the end of the dollar as a reserve currency is not a new thing. With the Fed printing money tho at record rates this would be the time for a shift to happen. The problem is there is no alternative. The Euro has it's own structural issues and as we saw in March when folks got scared they sold alternatives like Bitcoin down hard. In short, there is no alternative without international cooperati…

There are two concepts here: medium of exchange and store of value. Currently the US dollar (and Treasury bonds) do both. It's unlikely that the US dollar disappears as a medium of exchange, though there are steps being taken here, such as China + Russia pricing their oil trade in yuan rather than dollars. Yet with M2 money supply increasing 25% in the last year and the DXY crashing by 10%, the US dollar is no longer a reliable store of value.

The larger shift is out of Treasury bonds into different reserve assets, such as commodities (oil, gold, alternative currencies). That one is very real.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#35

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This is 100%, the fact the US can barely manufacturer face masks during a global pandemic is embarrassing. On the other end, how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

The consequences of that slave labor are far more on Chinese society than just the manufacturing dominance. There are a lot of things that are negative such as hatred of the CCP, that these policies are creating in China. The facade may look good, but there are cracks in China's foundation because of these decisions.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#36

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This is 100%, the fact the US can barely manufacturer face masks during a global pandemic is embarrassing. On the other end, how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

By lowering taxes and deregulating the economy.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#37
post #7

Which country would benefit from a weaker dollar? Germany wants to sell their cars. China their phones. If Americans can't afford them any more, then a big market would disappear.

None of them. It's a constant battle. I always hear the trope that we "owe" China money because they buy bonds but the entire reason they're buying bonds is to keep the Renminbi weaker than the USD. Germany is a weird corner case where the entire reason for the Euro is to allow them to keep their currency artificially weak by using the rest of Europe's economy as a place to dilute their export power. The DM was getti…

China is no longer a net buyer of Treasuries. They have begun to sell off their position over the last 5 years. And the renminbi is actually quite strong lately, the Chinese government is maintaining positive interest rates and allowing corporate defaults instead of money-printing.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#38

Economists writing about the end of the dollar as a reserve currency is not a new thing. With the Fed printing money tho at record rates this would be the time for a shift to happen. The problem is there is no alternative. The Euro has it's own structural issues and as we saw in March when folks got scared they sold alternatives like Bitcoin down hard. In short, there is no alternative without international cooperati…

https://twitter.com/lukegromen/status/1338161298119548930?s=...

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#39

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

> the last LCD panel manufacturer in the US closed around then and we could no longer manufacture LCD for our military vehicles

And funny enough our gov't (I'll let you guess which political party) struck a deal with Foxconn to produce LCDs in Wisconsin. It has failed miserably: https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsi...

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#40

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

This is 100%, the fact the US can barely manufacturer face masks during a global pandemic is embarrassing. On the other end, how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

> how do you compete with slave labor in the Chinese factories?

Trading blocs that ensure minimum working conditions. Companies which pay the worker a decent wage should get favorable tax treatment and procurement.

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